PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[snow_wizard]

So has everyone given up on February already?  Really puzzling how negative people are on it right now.  A lot of things could still make it work.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

29.8˚F.

[TT-SEA]

Live view from the streaming North Bend camera... the mountains are so reflective in the evening on winter days like this one.    Also interesting that this camera is in color during the daylight hours but switches to black and white at night.

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

So has everyone given up on February already?  Really puzzling how negative people are on it right now.  A lot of things could still make it work.

Phil says no. 

[TT-SEA]

19 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

So has everyone given up on February already?  Really puzzling how negative people are on it right now.  A lot of things could still make it work.

Why does it matter?   You want everyone on here giddy and excited for something 2 weeks away knowing there is a decent chance nothing happens?    No idea what you want when you do this.   It doesn't make sense to me.   People will get excited when its imminent.   Most weather weenies don't care too much about chilly low temps with no snow on the ground.    Just the way it is.   The people who are excited are on here enjoying it with you.

[Cascadia_Wx]

23 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You successfully fooled it!

When I saw them stuck at 39 for so many hours I figured they had to have bumped up to 40 at some point. Pleasant surprise.

[Cascadia_Wx]

27 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Maybe.  At any rate it did suck.  It was literally colder in every direction from his area.

Classic behavior for an overexposed sensor on a sunny day. Pretty sure his is.

[Skagit Weather]

Currently 29F after a high of 39F. Only hit 27F this morning so I'll probably set my low for the day later tonight. Before this morning my low for the month was 31F so it will be nice to get a slightly more respectable low for January in the books.

[Deweydog]

18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Why does it matter?   You want everyone on here giddy and excited for something 2 weeks away knowing there is a decent chance nothing happens?    No idea what you want when you do this.   It doesn't make sense to me.   People will get excited when its imminent.   Most weather weenies don't care too much about chilly low temps with no snow on the ground.    Just the way it is.  

Why does it matter?

[Deweydog]

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Why does it matter?

Apparently it doesn't.   I always find it humorous when he goes back and forth between hating this climate and expecting everyone to be excited when he is... its entertaining.   Tale as old as time.

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Apparently it doesn't.   I always find it humorous when he goes back and forth between hating this climate and expecting everyone to be excited when he is... its entertaining.   Tale as old as time.

RIP Angela Lansbury.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

RIP Angela Lansbury.

Song as old as rhyme.  

[TacomaWx]

32 now…definitely a midnight low coming. 

[Kayla]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Pretty small percentage of the country, unfortunately. Though nice to see and much needed down there.

I still think you are generalizing it too much. The Plains have also done quite well. It's really just the northern corners of the country that have had limited snowfall/cold. 

[ShawniganLake]

27F here. After a high of 41F. 

[joelgombiner]

2 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

Is the drought classification in CA still necessary? Snowpack in the central and southern Sierra is over 200% of normal.

I admittedly don't have a clear understanding of how those maps are generated. They apparently have a conference about it coming up soon... I'm sure complex math and science goes into it. 

[MossMan]

27.3 

[Deweydog]

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

On pace to get to Geno?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

28.0˚F.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Looks like Troutdale’s down to 8mph east winds.

Getting calmer here, down to 29 now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What horrible games today.

[LowerGarfield]

14F here, just a bit colder than Arrowhead Stadium in KC. Nearest WU station says they are at 17F.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, LowerGarfield said:

14F here, just a bit colder than Arrowhead Stadium in KC. Nearest WU station says they are at 17F.

16 here at the hotel next to MCI.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We all just gonna ignore the long range GEFS?! 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Classic behavior for an overexposed sensor on a sunny day. Pretty sure his is.

All the stations here in town are overexposed then. The ones in Eugene all seem to be accurate however so that’s good news.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Classic behavior for an overexposed sensor on a sunny day. Pretty sure his is.

All the stations here in town are overexposed then. The ones in Eugene all seem to be accurate however so that’s good news.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Classic behavior for an overexposed sensor on a sunny day. Pretty sure his is.

All the stations here in town are overexposed then. The ones in Eugene all seem to be accurate however so that’s good news.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Classic behavior for an overexposed sensor on a sunny day. Pretty sure his is.

All the stations here in town are overexposed then. The ones in Eugene all seem to be accurate however so that’s good news.

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We all just gonna ignore the long range GEFS?! 

[snow_wizard]

The Camp Muir sensor is reporting tonight.  8 degrees dp -33 with 52 mph winds.  Pretty harsh!  

[snow_wizard]

Quite a few single digits already showing up east of the Cascades.  Going to be a lot of sub zero readings over there.  Probably a lot of sub 20 readings on this side.

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We all just gonna ignore the long range GEFS?! 

Everyone just seems ho hum about February.  Weird.

[AbbyJr]

5 hours ago, Phil said:

The precursor patterns were strong in 2017/18, 2018/19, and 2020/21. All culminated a major SSW events that culminated in bonafide “blocking” patterns that redirected RWTs, which is how they delivered in the PNW and elsewhere across the NH.

There is nothing even remotely close to that going forward. To the contrary, the upcoming NH pattern will help strengthen the PV/TPV and lock up the arctic airmass in the high latitudes. Even though it’s a “cool” pattern for the west, it will become progressively less continental (and less cool in general) as the polar airmass gradually retracts. And may eventually end up warm/zonal altogether.

The pattern may grow more favorable for upward wave driving during the second half of February, but that pattern itself is associated with warmth in the PNW/other places. So that pattern, should it manifest, will take at least a couple weeks to knock out the vortex, at which point we will be into March.

Not ready to close the curtain just yet, but it’s getting close.

It would be nice to get a March 1951 repeat in the PNW.
 

Here was the 500mb pattern for March 5th, 1951:

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Quite a few single digits already showing up east of the Cascades.  Going to be a lot of sub zero readings over there.  Probably a lot of sub 20 readings on this side.

Going to be close here. Bottomed at at 21.9˚F this morning IMBY.

[Deweydog]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Everyone just seems ho hum about February.  Weird.

What’s your 4cast Jim?

[RentonHill]

16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We all just gonna ignore the long range GEFS?! 

It’s been good like 8 runs in a row. Almost time to start seeing it on the regular GFS or get off the pot.

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, Kayla said:

I still think you are generalizing it too much. The Plains have also done quite well. It's really just the northern corners of the country that have had limited snowfall/cold. 

Really gotta disagree there. Chicago has only had 13.7" of snow with little or none in sight. They're pretty far from either northern corner of the county. And the Plains south of Nebraska haven't done well at all. Wichita is sitting at 3.9" of snow and Kansas City is at 4.7". With a historically warm midwinter stretch.

The northernmost regions of the Midwest that aren't reliant on cold air availability at all have done well with the poleward-skewing storm track. Ditto for some of the high elevation areas in the Intermountain West. Otherwise it's been a warm and forgettable winter for most of the country, with a mild February looking increasingly likely.

Edited January 30, 2023 by BLI snowman

[TacomaWx]

29 with no wind here. Doubt we go below 20…which was the coldest low of January 2022 on the 1st. Should be a respectable low in the morning.