Madtown Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 bahhhh humbug Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Ukie took a big jump south 120 http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=144&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=120 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Stop going north please! I beg you! But honestly this was likely going to be a MSP special anyways so I'm not surprised. Especially if the surface low trends stronger like it has. The blocking high just isn't strong enough for us down south to cash in unfortunately. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 144 has a 1008 L developing in OK again http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=120&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=144 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Hey if it means a better chance for a Christmas Eve special than snow like the dickens up north Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Great job with all the posts coming in. I had a late night last night celebrating one my best friends B Day in the west loop. This time of year the city is electric and festive. The only thing missing is snow for the holidays! Interesting trends in the GFS trying to amp this storm which correlates well with the EAR/BSR at the potential for an explosive system. We saw this leading up to the Dec 4th/5th Blizzard that hit MN and this storm is tracking into the LRC's Long Wave Long Term Trough position where systems intensified. I'd like to see the 12z Euro run today before jumping the gun but my gut tells me this will end up being a MSP/NC WI special if trends towards a stronger storm persist. This is a complex system and I hope we get some more consistency today/tomorrow as the wave will be better sampled. It's currently located in the NE PAC/AK where I've learned models have trouble reading the energy. As it rides down the west coast of N.A., how far south this storm digs and how much the Alaskan ridge pops along with phasing will be issues the models need to resolve. Such a complex scenario with various solutions still on the table. I recall the models for the Dec 4th/5th Blizzard doing the same thing days before the event cutting off the energy in the SW and eventually trending towards a better flow which the GFS is doing now. Look at the last 8 runs and why I always believed this energy would not cut off as this season there is a much better flow that kicks the energy out of the SW. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Just a huge change from the UK this morning. Last run took a strong low up through central Iowa. The new run has a strengthening low tracking from St. Louis to Toledo, with heavy defo zone precip from northern Missouri through Chicago to Lake Huron. http://wx.graphics/models/ukmet/ukmet.php 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Just a huge change from the UK this morning. Last run took a strong low up through central Iowa. The new run has a strengthening low tracking from St. Louis to Toledo, with heavy defo zone precip from northern Missouri through Chicago to Lake Huron. http://wx.graphics/models/ukmet/ukmet.phpYa, that is a big change and something I'm not biting into at the moment but could be signaling the energy digging more so now that the -EPO is being better digested. Now, if the Euro does something like this then it will be more encouraging to see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Euro coming in south through 72 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Euro coming in south through 72Yup, digging the trough farther south into N Cali...there is also a stronger HP in S Canada...and also a stronger NE PAC HP... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Yup, digging the trough farther south into N Cali...there is also a stronger HP in S Canada...and also a stronger NE PAC HP...Although at 96 it looks close to the same Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Although at 96 it looks close to the same0C 850's hugging the MN/IA border from the looks of it and likely an all snow event for MN posters...your riding the edge on this run... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 The 12z Euro continues to like MSP ENE across N Wisco as the jackpot zone... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 12z Euro... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 The UK holds all the energy back for one low tracking south of Chicago Friday. The Euro ejects a weaker, less moist, low across southeast Iowa Thursday night, leaving the next piece of energy to simply enhance thunderstorms along the front. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Plenty of time left on this one Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 The 500hpa vorticity max gets strung out on this Euro run which evolves into a weaker system. Not sure if I buy that at the moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Euro also has the xmas eve snow for NE, into IA, but it's further south. Heaviest band in N Missouri Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Worry not fellows not in the line of this! We here in MSP LOVE watching models up until 24 hours out at which point storms deviate either direction. Everyone is still in the game. :| 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Euro also showing a massive arctic outbreak in the wake of this storm. Wowzers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 18z GFS looks a few ticks stronger and also a tick south thru hr 96. Negligible difference though so far Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 18z GFS looks a few ticks stronger and also a tick south thru hr 96. Negligible difference though so farAppears to be an MSP special. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Pretty similar overall to 12z. Show me this tomorrow and maybe, just maybe, I start to get excited. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Christmas Eve storm off the table for Iowa and Nebraska according to the 18z gfs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Pretty similar overall to 12z. Show me this tomorrow and maybe, just maybe, I start to get excited. Omadome really showing up there. Wow, glad it's the 18z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 ^ sorry guys, I was referring to mby and adjacent areas when I said the 18z was pretty similar to the 12z. That obviously isn’t the case everywhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Euro also showing a massive arctic outbreak in the wake of this storm. Wowzers.Man, that just screams of a system riding along that thermal divide, especially with the extremes portrayed. You don't see that everyday. KBUF calls it a full lat phasing at 500 mb. Isn't that kinda what the March '93 Superstorm had? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 MPX showing some rare excitement: ...A MAJOR WINTER STORM POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK... There remains uncertainty in the forecast on the exact track of awinter storm late next week, but confidence has increased enoughto warrant a headline in the extended period due to severalreasons. First, both the GFS/EC have been consistent in the past two runson the upper level pattern for this week, and nearly the same fora surface low developing across Colorado, and moving it northeastacross the plains, and into the western Great Lakes region. Onlythe GEM has a slight southern track bias which leads to theuncertain in the exact track. Secondly, CIPS analogs for late this week (108 hrs) remainedfavorable for accumulating snowfall across Minnesota, and northernWisconsin. Only subtle differences in the thermal profile and thejet couplet are noted, but this is for the number one analog andnot necessarily the mean. Thirdly, this winter storm is forming in the Rockies, and movingout into the plains near Colorado/Texas/Oklahoma. This is aclassic scenario of a winter storm for the Upper Midwest. Onlydifferences are the track on the surface low, the amount ofmoisture available, and upper level dynamics. I don`t want to alarm those who are going to be traveling latenext week, but this scenario does support an eye on the weatherfront. As always, uncertainties exist, so always check back forthe latest forecast Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Man, that just screams of a system riding along that thermal divide, especially with the extremes portrayed. You don't see that everyday. KBUF calls it a full lat phasing at 500 mb. Isn't that kinda what the March '93 Superstorm had?It screams of a system getting suppressed by high pressure. But you never know I guess, maybe we can get something? Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 OAX still refuses to get rid of the "snow likely" wording in their forecast for here. Not sure what super secret models they're looking at but I want them. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 OAX still refuses to get rid of the "snow likely" wording in their forecast for here. Not sure what super secret models they're looking at but I want them.Same here in the DMX area. 70% chance? Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 It screams of a system getting suppressed by high pressure. But you never know I guess, maybe we can get something?With that steep of an incline, what looks great here, would be too far east for IA, so we're both correct it would seem Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 When will we get a good sampling of the storm? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 When will we get a good sampling of the storm?Sampling actually not that bad right now. Won't actually be fully onshore until Tuesday night at the earliest, but it's not in a data sparse region now from what I can see... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 Hoping a last minute miracle happens and this system tanks south Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 Gfs south through 72 and by quite a bit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 Then by 84 it’s north. Looks colder too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 Then by 84 it’s north.Snow map is def south Stronger HP so it’s colder 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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