ShawniganLake Posted January 12, 2018 Report Share Posted January 12, 2018 Oh God... Doubt it. It looks lost on this run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 12, 2018 Report Share Posted January 12, 2018 Who's had it with this shithole climate???? 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canadian guy Posted January 12, 2018 Report Share Posted January 12, 2018 Clown range on the 12z gfs looks promising. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 12, 2018 Report Share Posted January 12, 2018 Who's had it with this shithole climate????Let’s all Move! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 12, 2018 Report Share Posted January 12, 2018 Who's had it with this shithole climate???? Anderson Cooper wants us to remember the dignity of the Haitian people... At least if we lived in Haiti we wouldn't have to wait around for snow that doesn't come. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 12, 2018 Report Share Posted January 12, 2018 Yes Jared. Of course. Always and forever. I have had 5 or 6 days with snow on the ground and a total of 10 inches. And that will not change over the next 10 days. This certainly has not been a cold and snowy winter here at 1,050 feet. Bottom tier in my experience here.It's still too soon to grade the winter. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 12, 2018 Report Share Posted January 12, 2018 The ensembles are always "not bad".No, they were pretty bad for the first week or so of this month. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 12, 2018 Report Share Posted January 12, 2018 It's still too soon to grade the winter. Through today's date this has been the worst winter I have had up here to this point and it isn't even close. And that includes 2014-15. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 12, 2018 Report Share Posted January 12, 2018 Not trying to be a downer, but the new EPS weeklies go nuts with the MJO over the warm pool starting in early February..something like +2SDs there relative to seasonal climatology. That’s off-climo timing too for a Niña, so maybe it’s wrong. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 12, 2018 Report Share Posted January 12, 2018 Oh God... GFS propagates the MJO eastward too quickly IMO. It has a well-documented WHEM forcing bias in the medium/long range which often causes it to cycle patterns too quickly and/or run too progressive with the overall wavetrain. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liquidsnow Posted January 12, 2018 Report Share Posted January 12, 2018 Not trying to be a downer, but the new EPS weeklies go nuts with the MJO over the warm pool starting in early February..something like +2SDs there relative to seasonal climatology. That’s off-climo timing too for a Niña, so maybe it’s wrong.Ok,it's time to pack away my winter clothes and bring out the spring stuff...but if there is a cold snap and I die of hypothermia and/or pneumonia...it's on your a**! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 12, 2018 Report Share Posted January 12, 2018 Ensembles look pretty good. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 12, 2018 Report Share Posted January 12, 2018 (OT) Temp was 62*F at sunrise this morning..that’s warmer than PDX’s average low in July, and if it occurred during the summer, Jesse et al would probably be complaining about it. Lol. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 12, 2018 Report Share Posted January 12, 2018 (OT) Temp was 62*F at sunrise this morning..that’s warmer than PDX’s average low in July, and if it occurred during the summer, Jesse et al would probably be complaining about it. Lol.It’s funny, I was looking back over the last couple threads that happened during summer heatwaves to seek recent evidence for this myth. Not a lot of complaining, just tracking the models. I think the legend got its start several years go when I actually did complain more. It’s been a tough one to shake. You on the other hand complain almost non-stop about the summers there, every year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted January 12, 2018 Report Share Posted January 12, 2018 Ensembles look pretty good. If you like Pacific air. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 12, 2018 Report Share Posted January 12, 2018 Ok,it's time to pack away my winter clothes and bring out the spring stuff...but if there is a cold snap and I die of hypothermia and/or pneumonia...it's on your a**!I don’t know..on paper it looks bad, but it “feels” like a situation where the climate system might go and try something new (at some point..maybe not now, but down the road in F/M/A, maybe?). When you get a bunch of these homogenous yet off-climo signals in the modeling, most forecasters I know view it with suspicion, and usually it’s for good reason. The past is prologue..except when it’s not. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 12, 2018 Report Share Posted January 12, 2018 If you like Pacific air.Maybe "not bad" is a more apt description. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 12, 2018 Report Share Posted January 12, 2018 I don’t know..on paper it looks bad, but it “feels” like a situation where the climate system might go and try something new (at some point..maybe not now, but down the road in F/M/A, maybe?). When you get a bunch of these homogenous yet off-climo signals in the modeling, most forecasters I know view it with suspicion, and usually it’s for good reason. The past is prologue..except when it’s not.Anything less than February 1989 or 1899 will bust Jim s forecast. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 12, 2018 Report Share Posted January 12, 2018 It’s funny, I was looking back over the last couple threads that happened during summer heatwaves to seek recent evidence for this myth. Not a lot of complaining, just tracking the models. I think the legend got its start several years go when I actually did complain more. It’s been a tough one to shake. You on the other hand complain almost non-stop about the summers there, every year.I admit, you probably have a point. I think I’ve become just as annoying as Tim over recent years, in regards to whining and complaining during the warm season. Lol. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 12, 2018 Report Share Posted January 12, 2018 Not sure what all the above average winter talk is about? All it takes is 1 cold month and we could easily have a cold winter on average in the end. Last week of January could still turn out cold as well. Please though, analyze every day on the Euro and continue to tell us (Jim) that there are no cold days in sight. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 12, 2018 Report Share Posted January 12, 2018 At least the Oregon Cascades will have a snow pack by the end of January. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 12, 2018 Report Share Posted January 12, 2018 Not sure what all the above average winter talk is about? All it takes is 1 cold month and we could easily have a cold winter on average in the end. Last week of January could still turn out cold as well. Please though, analyze every day on the Euro and continue to tell us (Jim) that there are no cold days in sight.What’s with all the rationality, man? That s**t ain’t allowed in here. 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 12, 2018 Report Share Posted January 12, 2018 Not sure what all the below average winter talk is about? All it takes is 1 warm month and we could easily have a warm winter on average in the end. Last week of January could still turn out warm as well. Please though, analyze every day on the Euro and continue to tell us (Tim) that there are no warm days in sight.If only this were actually the case... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 12, 2018 Report Share Posted January 12, 2018 I admit, you probably have a point. I think I’ve become just as annoying as Tim over recent years, in regards to whining and complaining during the warm season. Lol.I will assure you that you are nowhere close to that level of annoying. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 12, 2018 Report Share Posted January 12, 2018 Not sure what all the above average winter talk is about? All it takes is 1 cold month and we could easily have a cold winter on average in the end. Last week of January could still turn out cold as well. Please though, analyze every day on the Euro and continue to tell us (Jim) that there are no cold days in sight.Yeah, December was below average. January has been mild so far but the models are trending cooler for the last 1/3. And of course February we have no idea at this point. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 12, 2018 Report Share Posted January 12, 2018 Yeah, December was below average. January has been mild so far but the models are trending cooler for the last 1/3. And of course February we have no idea at this point. It has been an amazing winter so far. Exactly what was predicted... bitter cold and snow. Low solar and this Nina are working their magic! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 12, 2018 Report Share Posted January 12, 2018 So let me get this straight... With about 53% of winter yet to take place and no particularly strong anomaly either way thus far, we're not sure how things will turn out? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 12, 2018 Report Share Posted January 12, 2018 Euro! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 12, 2018 Report Share Posted January 12, 2018 We are actually going to put a low ball offer on a place this weekend just east of Big Lake in Skagit Co and see what happens. it’s around 500ft I believe and just looking at the location I think it has a good chance at being a snowy area but I don’t know the micro climate in that area. It’s 22 acres and the majority is forest. I believe the hill to the east goes up possibly to 1,000ft. It had snow on it the last time we were out there, I could just take a quad up to the snow! A view from the living room. I like that area! I go rockhounding around there. I went up there about this time last year and I noticed areas with a little elevation had a bit of snow on them while areas near Big Lake didn't have anything. I would imagine that area would do slightly better in snowfall then my spot at 500 feet. You're closer to the Fraser Valley and cold air drainage from the Northern Cascades. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 12, 2018 Report Share Posted January 12, 2018 So let me get this straight... With about 53% of winter yet to take place and no particularly strong anomaly either way thus far, we're not sure how things will turn out? An average winter would be a pretty big bust given what was predicted. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 12, 2018 Report Share Posted January 12, 2018 An average winter would be a pretty big bust given what was predicted.Yes, Tim. A lot of people went all in for this winter and those wishcasts haven't panned out. Asked and answered... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 12, 2018 Report Share Posted January 12, 2018 So let me get this straight... With about 53% of winter yet to take place and no particularly strong anomaly either way thus far, we're not sure how things will turn out?There are some who seem to feel certain. On either side. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 12, 2018 Report Share Posted January 12, 2018 If only this were actually the case...And why isn't it? The DJF timeframe could easily end up colder than average in regards to anomalies Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 12, 2018 Report Share Posted January 12, 2018 And why isn't it? The DJF timeframe could easily end up colder than average in regards to anomaliesRead carefully. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted January 12, 2018 Report Share Posted January 12, 2018 Call me crazy, but haven't things turned out about what you would expect for a moderate Niña thus far?? Cold northern tier, warm/dry SW and somewhere in between (average) in the PNW and still plenty of winter to play out! Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 12, 2018 Report Share Posted January 12, 2018 There are some who seem to feel certain. On either side. I have no idea what February will bring. But my green lawn and a shot at 60+ degrees this weekend in the middle of January makes this feel like less than an epic winter. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 12, 2018 Report Share Posted January 12, 2018 Yes, Tim. A lot of people went all in for this winter and those wishcasts haven't panned out. Asked and answered...FWIW, a “wishcast” from me would have been a giant GOA/Aleutian vortex, Alberta Hudson Bay ridge, Southeast US cut-off trough, and corresponding Mid-Atlantic blizzard train. I forecasted essentially the opposite. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 12, 2018 Report Share Posted January 12, 2018 FWIW, a “wishcast” from me would have been a giant GOA/Aleutian vortex, Alberta Hudson Bay ridge, Southeast US cut-off trough, and corresponding Mid-Atlantic blizzard train. I forecasted essentially the opposite. I don't include you in that. Yours was 40% attention hounding, 30% reverse psychology and 30% pure atmospheric physical genius. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 12, 2018 Report Share Posted January 12, 2018 Call me crazy, but haven't things turned out about what you would expect for a moderate Niña thus far?? Cold northern tier, warm/dry SW and somewhere in between (average) in the PNW and still plenty of winter to play out!I think the relatively persistent split flow. Low Oregon snowpack, and record breaking eastern cold snaps (during that much anticipated late December/ early January period) probably aren’t what people were expecting 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 12, 2018 Report Share Posted January 12, 2018 I don't include you in that. Yours was a 40% attention hounding, 30% reverse psychology and 30% pure atmospheric physical genius.Ahhhhh, Dewey. It’s always a character trait analysis with you. With all due respect, man, you’ve got me pegged incorrectly (to a large extent, at least). Maybe there was, in fact, some some over-enthusiastic “jumping on the bandwagon” on my part, but the only attention I crave here is that of a successful winter forecast and a validation of my theories on weather/climate. It’s not about me, at all. I’m a 25 year old student. I have a ways to go in my academic life. I acknowledge this fact on a regular basis. So, how does this fit in with your theories about me craving personal recognition and/or status? 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.