January Weather In the PNW

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Hour 384 is hilarious...-41C 850mb temperatures. Might be the most widespread cold I’ve ever seen modeled in the Arctic.

 

Going to waste...

 

#OneDay #1950redux

[Jesse]

Hour 384 is hilarious...-41C 850mb temperatures. Might be the most widespread cold I’ve ever seen modeled in the Arctic

 

 

Are you sure you don’t think it’s hilarious just because it shows us getting shafted again?

[BLI snowman]

Very disappointing model bust.

 

Oh well.

[luvssnow_spokane]

It's just one run. We'll see what the GEFS shows and of course King EURO at 9:45 PM. However, this would seem to follow the GEFS, EPS, CMCE Ensembles with the slow eastward trend of the ridge after day 9-10 the past several runs. That's never good.

 

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6z GFS in 4 hours 34 minutes

GEM has not been great either ... but correct... one run, and just like one run is not the holy grail of something good/great coming neither is this for something not so good.

[Gradient Keeper]

For entertainment purposes only...-41C 850mb temperatures in the clown range. Might be the most widespread cold I’ve ever seen modeled in the Arctic.

 

Wow. That should give the sea-ice a boost perhaps. Poor Penguins and Polar Bears.

[Phil]

Are you sure you don’t think it’s hilarious just because it shows us getting shafted again?

Only because you guys attacked me (again) for providing honest analysis on the run.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Only because you guys attacked me (again) for providing honest analysis on the run.

I appreciate your rational analysis... I never understand why people do not appreciate truth. Weird year... keep it coming Phil you rock!

[Phil]

I’ll take some improvements in the believable mid range over a highly unlikely mega blast towards day 14. That one is probably not going to happen.

The potential for a significant Arctic blast looks much higher during the first week of February than it did at any time last winter.

 

Whether or not that potential can be realized is another story altogether.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

It's just one run. We'll see what the GEFS shows and of course King EURO at 9:45 PM. However, this would seem to follow the GEFS, EPS, CMCE Ensembles with the slow eastward trend of the ridge after day 9-10 the past several runs. That's never good.

 

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6z GFS in 4 hours 34 minutes

Yeah, it's just one run. Onto the 00z King EURO.

[Phil]

Wow. That should give the sea-ice a boost perhaps. Poor Penguins and Polar Bears.

If the upstream waves behave, that Arctic air could all be yours. I’m only half joking about that.

[Phil]

The wave break that determines everything occurs between hr108 - hr144. We need to trend it better soon.

[Front Ranger]

Only because you guys attacked me (again) for providing honest analysis on the run.

 

It was a legitimate point. Your analysis, honest or not, is sometimes biased by how you think things should play out. 

 

Doesn't always work out that way. See the 18z.

 

But we're still talking about low-res, clown range developments anyway. It's understandable people would take improvements in the more believable range, regardless of how the clown range goes.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I've a feeling the ensembles will show the same thing. Which is good because the folks in the eastern half of the country are really overdue for some arctic air.

 

#slidingeast

[Phil]

It was a legitimate point. Your analysis, honest or not, is sometimes biased by how you think things should play out.

 

Doesn't always work out that way.

Umm, what else could possibly send Arctic air into the PNW besides an upstream wavebreak?

 

With all due respect, what you’re saying here doesn’t make any sense.

[luvssnow_spokane]

It was a legitimate point. Your analysis, honest or not, is sometimes biased by how you think things should play out.

 

Doesn't always work out that way. See the 18z.

 

But we're still talking about low-res, clown range developments anyway. It's understandable people would take improvements in the more believable range, regardless of how the clown range goes.

To be fair some of the causes in the clown range are earlier in the run, which causes the PNW failure to score the goods later on.

[Phil]

To be fair some of the causes in the clown range are earlier in the run, which causes the PNW failure to score the goods

Pretty much this, as is modeled now.

[ShawniganLake]

The potential for a significant Arctic blast looks much higher during the first week of February than it did at any time last winter.

 

Whether or not that potential can be realized is another story altogether.

Meh. I thought our window to score closed yesterday.

[ShawniganLake]

Euro also looking more suppressed later in the week.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 8

[stuffradio]

Hour 384

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10 EWWWWWWWWW. NOPE

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Still getting some heavy post-front showers here at 41F, must be dumping snow in the mountains. Normally I'd expect this to shift into the PSCZ, but surface winds remain southerly on both sides of the Olympics. Still the rain in this area this evening was poorly forecast by most of the models even as recently as the 0z runs, which showed shadowing over the SE part of the island.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Day 10 EWWWWWWWWW. NOPE

 

It's going to be a long two weeks, but I wouldn't be surprised to see things flip back to better solutions tomorrow.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z suite was a dud for sure. It could all change suddenly in our favor with 12z tomorrow though. Will it? Eh, I'm cautiously optimistic.

 

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6z GFS in 3 hours 14 minutes

[MossMan]

Well this place sure died.

But the boat show is coming!!

[TT-SEA]

Blake Shelton was speaking to me directly tonight...

 

Some beach... Somewhere

There's a big umbrella casting shade over an empty chair

Palm trees are growing and warm breezes blowing

I picture myself right there

On some beach, somewhere

[van city]

Blake Shelton was speaking to me directly tonight...

Some beach... Somewhere

There's a big umbrella casting shade over an empty chair

Palm trees are growing and warm breezes blowing

I picture myself right there

On some beach, somewhere

You OK?

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like both the GEPS and GEFS are going with the EPS. Ridge Amplifies along the coast and the arctic air is dumped into the prairies. Maybe the 0z EPS will start a trend in the other direction.

[Bryant]

Blake Shelton was speaking to me directly tonight...

 

Some beach... Somewhere

There's a big umbrella casting shade over an empty chair

Palm trees are growing and warm breezes blowing

I picture myself right there

On some beach, somewhere

You try too hard

[TT-SEA]

It was a gorgeous day at Silver Mountain...

 

 

 

[TT-SEA]

00Z EPS still shows the quick shot of cold air... now around day 9... and then everything slides way east again.    Ironically... the GFS is starting to pick up on this idea now.   EPS has been very consistent.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Winter Cancel incoming...

[Jesse]

Winter Cancel incoming...

From Andrew? He’s been doing those about twice a week since late November.

[Deweydog]

Down to 44 at PDX...

[Gradient Keeper]

00Z EPS still shows the quick shot of cold air... now around day 9... and then everything slides way east again.    Ironically... the GFS is starting to pick up on this idea now.   EPS has been very consistent.  

Yeah 00z EPS was awful. Ridge is far too close. I don't know how Days 10-15 look.

 

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6z GFS in 39 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

One thing I keep thinking about is with the forecast WPO to tank that "should" block the pacific jet entirely with ridging around 160 W, not closer to us. or am I just too tired and have that backwards.

[Phil]

Yeah 00z EPS was awful. Ridge is far too close. I don't know how Days 10-15 look.

 

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6z GFS in 39 minutes

I had second thoughts before posting this, considering how hated I already am (lol), but the extended range EPS is essentially a return to the pattern we just left. Baffin Bay death vortex and an extended east-Asian jet.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

I had second thoughts before posting this, considering how hated I already am on here (lol), but the extended range EPS is essentially a return to the pattern we just left. Baffin Bay death vortex and an extended east-Asian jet.

 

That stinks. Not sure who hates you? Oh and that pattern stinks. Thanks for all of the analysis and posting the charts so often.

 

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6z GFS in 2 minutes

[weatherfan2012]

I had second thoughts before posting this, considering how hated I already am (lol), but the extended range EPS is essentially a return to the pattern we just left. Baffin Bay death vortex and an extended east-Asian jet.

the 2013 -2017 mean pattern that just won't be denied talk about a lazy mode mean pattern that seems stuck.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Models went to complete shi+ real quick today.  It was looking interesting this time last night. How quickly things change.

 

 

On to 2018-19. 2 bad/snowless winters in a row happens pretty frequently here so 18-19 will likely end up snowless too.  That's now a lot of lousy winters this decade here.  10-11, 11-12, 12-13 all had nothing, and 14-15, 15-16, and now 17-18 were goose-eggs too. 6 of the 8 winters have had zilch.  Contrast that with 00-01, 01-02, 02-03, 04-05, 05-06, then 4 in a row with low elevation snow from 2006-07 through 2009-10 with only 5 of 10 snowless, and the 90s had more than the '10s too so I'm going to assume some sort of warming is causing this.

 

Really want to move...