January Weather In the PNW

[Phil]

We have never observed two consecutive winters with 850mb temperatures of -45C or colder over the Canadian Arctic during the satellite era. Last winter was the first one to hit -45C since January 1994 (except last year we did it in March, which was the latest ever observed).

 

So it would be quite the statistic to do it again, especially in the current climate era.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Looks like a system around day 8, rain for Western WA/OR, maybe some snow toward the end of the system north of the US/Canadian border, then dry.  

[Phil]

It was about interactions between particulates in the troposphere and the stratosphere with regard to ozone recovery.

Oh hell yes. You plan on being a stratosphere junkie?

 

There will be some great research/modeling opportunities there as we begin incorporating stratospheric processes like QBO/SAO, additional boundary layers, photochemical forcings on thermal winds/statics, etc into seasonal/climate models.

[BLI snowman]

I have to admit I really didn’t see this coming for this winter. PDX is a lock for second warmest January on record (beating 45.5 in 2006). January 1953 was 47.3 so #1 is basically untouchable, at least this year.

 

Now it is looking like there is at least a decent chance we start February somewhat warm and ridgy.

 

We were due.

[crf450ish]

Drive safe and enjoy! I bet it is absolutely beautiful!!!

The highway surface was compact snow & ice about 10 miles or so west of the summit and about 15 miles east of the summit. I made it safe. Driving slow is the key

[Jesse]

We were due.

Yeah, Januaries 2015 and 2016 were only top 10 warm. :/

[Jesse]

Oh hell yes. You plan on being a stratosphere junkie?

 

There will be some great research/modeling opportunities there as we begin incorporating stratospheric processes like QBO/SAO, additional boundary layers, photochemical forcings on thermal winds/statics, etc into seasonal/climate models.

The sky’s the limit.

[Timmy]

I’m surprised Tim isn’t here posting the gem and gfs saying how crappy they are compared to the euro and implying they are are more likely solutions.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Full on blast day 9

 

When this is 6 days out I will get excited. I'd love to see 18 degree temps here in the central Willamette Valley but I will be surprised.

[Timmy]

When this is 6 days out I will get excited.

if?

[bainbridgekid]

The highway surface was compact snow & ice about 10 miles or so west of the summit and about 15 miles east of the summit. I made it safe. Driving slow is the key

You made it just in time. Both directions are closed now.

 

Going snowshoeing up there with my Dad tomorrow. Should be some incredible powder.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

if?

 

Exactly.  Were the EPS ensembles ok or still about the same?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The new edition of the 12z EURO shows an Arctic Blast at day 9 now! It moves up the timing which is a very good sign. Onto the drunk uncle and the 00z runs tonight.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018012612/216/500h_anom.na.png

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018012612/216/850t.na.png

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018012612/240/850t.na.png

[Timmy]

Exactly. Were the EPS ensembles ok or still about the same?

Not bad, not as good as the op but pretty close. I only can see until day 10 too, wxbell goes out to 15 I think.

[Deweydog]

How does the NOGAPS look?

[Timmy]

How does the NOGAPS look?

Euro is the most credible model, why teh h8?

[ShawniganLake]

Not bad, not as good as the op but pretty close. I only can see until day 10 too, wxbell goes out to 15 I think.

Day 10-15 look pretty unchanged. Ridge too close but still chilly. Stronger SE ridge on this 12z though.

[Deweydog]

Euro is the most credible model, why teh h8?

Why teh h8 for the United States Navy?

[ShawniganLake]

[Jesse]

PDX massively overachieving again today.

[Bryant]

Euro is the most credible model, why teh h8?

Timmy turned bullish, dump it

[Deweydog]

PDX massively overachieving again today.

Eventually you have to just admit it's achieving.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Headed up to push some snow around.

[Timmy]

PDX massively overachieving again today.

Bsf will do that, lots of wind and mixing today. Just a slushy mix even up here.

[kokaneekidz]

Headed up to push some snow around.

Looks like the Omak walmart lot??? Watch out for all those CANUCKS ...

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Yep walmart. I hate the store.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The pass was amazing. Snow is getting deep.

[kokaneekidz]

Yep walmart. I hate the store.

Yeah most the workers couldn't negotiate their way out of a wet paper bag. Nor find their own with two hands and a map/

[TT-SEA]

With the ECMWF and EPS still on board around or soon after day 9... I am pretty optimistic that we are going to see a decent event.   Hopefully it comes with snow cover.

 

The ECMWF highs on day 9 are impressive.

 

[HighlandExperience]

The pass was amazing. Snow is getting deep.

Pass is closed now good thing you got over.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Pass is closed now good thing you got over.

Eastbound I-90 is now open

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Had to macgyver a repair on my truck. Something flew up off road and smacked a rubber transmission cooler line and sliced it. Forget tools. Only thing i had was latex gloves. Wrapped the glove around leaking area tied the glove and made it 20 miles to a napa. Repaired right and everything is cool.

[Deweydog]

18z!

[Kayla]

Why teh h8 for the United States Navy?

 

NAVGEM only goes out to 180 hours silly goose!

[Deweydog]

NAVGEM only goes out to 180 hours silly goose!

Extrapolate!!!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

With the ECMWF and EPS still on board around or soon after day 9... I am pretty optimistic that we are going to see a decent event. Hopefully it comes with snow cover.

 

The ECMWF highs on day 9 are impressive.

 

Yeah those highs are impressive. It's been a long time since we've gone into an Arctic Blast with snow cover. Hopefully this will be the year if this actually happens. Even with no snow, temperatures drop to the teens for most of the western lowlands overnight after Superbowl Sunday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty amazing to see the GFS leading the way.

[bainbridgekid]

Looking pretty snowy in Skykomish today. I'm pretty sure that's the snowiest location in the state under 1,000 feet.

 

http://images.wsdot.wa.gov/airports/Skyeast.jpg

[Kayla]

Pretty amazing to see the GFS leading the way.

 

Now you're just trolling. You posted that at like what, hour 120? 

 

Actually trending towards the ECMWF if anything...

[Jesse]

Now you're just trolling. You posted that at like what, hour 120?

Again, you’ve been here for a couple years right?