February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jbolin]

Everything is 58.54 miles West on the 18z so far.

You forgot to divide by 2 and carry the remainder

 

58.55 miles west

[Geos]

Nice to see some legit winter weather within the 7 day mark now. Low of 28 at home this morning. 

Those are some impressive lows on the EURO north of here in 6-7 days. 

 

Incredible video of a triggered avalanche in BC over the weekend.

http://www.king5.com/article/news/local/watch-massive-avalanche-in-british-columbia/281-517442560

[van city]

You forgot to divide by 2 and carry the remainder

 

58.55 miles west

Ok, that will make Andrew happy.

[Phil]

Fair point. I would argue that the placement of the GOA ridge is more important than the placement of the SE ridge, but I see what you're saying.

Yeah, it’s mostly a question of whether the entire wavetrain is more/less zonal, and the wavenumber/length.

 

An amplified, high-wavenumber pattern will naturally reflect more SE ridge, assuming upstream anticyclones are present (as will be the case). Meanwhile, a progressive, low-wavenumber pattern under these circumstances will naturally reflect less SE-ridge.

 

So it’s not the SE-ridge causing more/less cold. It’s the changes to the overall wave amplitude that control the height anomalies, and where the cold goes.

[Deweydog]

Chilly weekend?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I really hate to say I told you so...BUT...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Where is Jim?!

[van city]

I really hate to say I told you so...BUT...

12z

18z

[Phil]

You guys are hilarious. Structurally speaking, the pattern depicted on the 12z GEFS/EPS was the best yet. The pessimism doesn’t make much sense.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Don't worry the clipper at hour 186 is actually what will deliver the goods!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

This is a good run for a lot of people.

[MossMan]

Where is Jim?!

He trended east.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z is going to get it done in the long range at least...

[van city]

Don't worry the clipper at hour 186 is actually what will deliver the goods!

You OK?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

18z is going to get it done in the long range at least...

 

You're gonna get hammered man.  I need to find a way to make  it up to the park.

[Deweydog]

Yeah, the regionwide blizzard with below zero windchills is pretty much gone from the models.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Bigtime snowstorm for Westen Washington according to the GFS.

[BLI snowman]

Meh.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Sub-528 thicknesses finally with some flakes in the air in post-frontal showers for the Willamette Valley, then chilly nights.

[Phil]

Remember those struggles we talked about over the Eurasian Arctic? Lol.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Beautiful Pattern hr 186- 198.

[Geos]

Looking good still. Sunday might hold promise too for some of us on the higher hills. 

 

[Phil]

In the near term, watch the trend over the Arctic, and how it affects the TPV/NPAC anticyclone. Stronger -AO, southwest shift in the TPV, and a more amplified NPAC anticyclone.

 

[Front Ranger]

It will shift everything west... and then the 00Z run will undo the shift.  

 

Theory FAIL.

[Front Ranger]

I really hate to say I told you so...BUT...

 

Euro has lead the way. No reason to let your emotions ride on the model that has been following the Euro all along.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Euro has lead the way. No reason to let your emotions ride on the model that has been following the Euro all along.

 

We had about 24 hours of exciting model runs yesterday into the 06z today when things were coalescing around a really good solution. Unfortunately the model backpedal began with every single run at 12z and the 18z continues the trend. Even to take what the models are showing right now at face value would be a mistake. I would expect they will continue to trend away from anything notable. I think there is a good chance the trough over the weekend pretty much disappears like the one around 1/29 did. 

 

We will see. I hope this ends up being the one time this winter the trend away from anything good does not accelerate.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If things work out perhaps I will get another couple hours of light snow...

[FroYoBro]

If things work out perhaps I will get another couple hours of light snow...

We are all praying for you.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

"If things work out"? Haven't you noticed the distinct eastward trend in the models all day today?

 

What in God's name makes you think this will work out for anyone, especially someone at My Location?

 

Good point. BSF is most likely. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If this doesn't work out, it is definitely Jim's fault for saying "If this doesn't happen it will be the biggest model bust since 2005."

[Deweydog]

If this doesn't work out, it is definitely Jim's fault for saying "If this doesn't happen it will be the biggest model bust since 2005."

Oh Jim....

 

And Andrew.......

[jakeinthevalley]

If things work out perhaps I will get another couple hours of light snow...

Did you mention that you had a little snow Sunday morning? We did the entire falls trail on Saturday. It was a beautiful day and I told my daughter that there would probably be snow by morning.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Did you mention that you had a little snow Sunday morning? We did the entire falls trail on Saturday. It was a beautiful day and I told my daughter that there would probably be snow by morning.

 

There was some off and on again light snow. I did not stick, but I was surprised to see it. The system coming in tomorrow night/Wednesday morning has the makings of something that could start off as snow too, especially if there isn't much of a southerly push ahead of it. It seems like a lot of times the snow level in the morning ends up being a little lower than expected this time of year because the onshore flow/southerly flow is not quite as strong later in the season. 

[Front Ranger]

We had about 24 hours of exciting model runs yesterday into the 06z today when things were coalescing around a really good solution. Unfortunately the model backpedal began with every single run at 12z and the 18z continues the trend. Even to take what the models are showing right now at face value would be a mistake. I would expect they will continue to trend away from anything notable. I think there is a good chance the trough over the weekend pretty much disappears like the one around 1/29 did. 

 

We will see. I hope this ends up being the one time this winter the trend away from anything good does not accelerate.  

 

The 12z models were all great for many areas to your north. I think you're just overreacting because they didn't match the greatest runs to date for My Location. 

 

Given that the 12z Euro showed the most lowland snowfall of any run so far, and we're talking about the 6-8 day range that is the Euro's wheelhouse, I don't see the strong "trend away from anything good" that you do.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 12z models were all great for many areas to your north. I think you're just overreacting because they didn't match the greatest runs to date for My Location. 

 

Given that the 12z Euro showed the most lowland snowfall of any run so far, and we're talking about the 6-8 day range that is the Euro's wheelhouse, I don't see the strong "trend away from anything good" that you do.

 

I didn't think it looked any worse for MY location than any other run. Still easily cold enough for snow at face value. If anything I am actually ignoring what it shows IMBY.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like I am not the only one who is not on board the wishcast express...

 

[Timmy]

Looks like I am not the only one who is not on board the wishcast express...

 

That seems pretty reasonable this far out.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ensembles are pretty decent. Maybe even slightly better than the 18z. 

[BLI snowman]

Looks like I am not the only one who is not on board the wishcast express...

 

1990!

[ShawniganLake]

If this doesn't work out, it is definitely Jim's fault for saying "If this doesn't happen it will be the biggest model bust since 2005."

Did he actually say that?