van city Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Thoughts on the 12Z Euro? Doesn’t look like it’s backing off on the cold and snow...but I only have Tropical Tidbits:(Don't you worry, Tim got you covered. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Thoughts on the 12Z Euro? Doesn’t look like it’s backing off on the cold and snow...but I only have Tropical Tidbits:(Looks similar to the 0z so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Where's Tim? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Thoughts on the 12Z Euro? Doesn’t look like it’s backing off on the cold and snow...but I only have Tropical Tidbits:(At hour 48, the low is a bit more offshore (to the northwest) and deeper, very similar to the GEM. The cold air is a little slower to come in, but conditions do look correct for snow in many places, including Vancouver. The setup looking further forwards looks a little west from last night's run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Where's Tim?The snow maps aren’t updated far enough to matter yet. Haha. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 If the snow maps look good Tim won't post them. 5 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Total snow through Sunday at 4 p.m. and the precip is done at this point for WA: Temperatures at 4 p.m. on Sunday... looks warmer than the 00Z run. Still well above freezing in Seattle. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Someone post the wb snowmap Really a shame the free site is goneFor a free alternative, go to weather.us Their snowmaps measure snow in QPF, meaning how much precipitation is falling as snow So if an area has 0.3 inches falling as snow, it is probably about 3 inches as snow. Not quite as user friendly as WB, but I think Tim may not be available, but anyone can access weather.us It also has temperature maps, precip type, etc. No reason to be dependent on other people to post maps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lisa0527 Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Total snow through Sunday at 4 p.m. and the precip is done at this point for WA: Temperatures at 4 p.m. on Sunday... looks warmer than the 00Z run. Still well above freezing in Seattle. Looks a bit better for Vancouver Thanks for posting. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Ugh, I really hate the coast range when it rain shadows PDX this bad. Great orographics for those with elevation though. Directly translates into little to no snow. I'm being a broken record of course but there just isn't going to be any precip left here once it is cold enough. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 The high temps on Sunday have fluctuated about 1 degree on the EURO for the past 5-6 runs, yet Tim says they are warmer every time. 50 or so at Sea-Tac is looking likely... I have not seen anything below 39 at SLE, which is what this run is showing. NWS is actually forecasting 45 that day. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Ugh, I really hate the coast range when it rain shadows PDX this bad. Great orographics for those with elevation though. us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018021612_72_494_220.png Directly translates into little to no snow. us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018021612_72_494_215.png I'm being a broken record of course but there just isn't going to be any precip left here once it is cold enough. This euro isn't showing much for my area either. Must be a little too warm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lisa0527 Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Hmmm....so looks like I’ll get anywhere from nothing to 8” I’m just west of that little Vancouver dot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Ugh, I really hate the coast range when it rain shadows PDX this bad. Great orographics for those with elevation though. us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018021612_72_494_220.png Directly translates into little to no snow. us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018021612_72_494_215.png I'm being a broken record of course but there just isn't going to be any precip left here once it is cold enough. I like these maps better than the weather bell maps. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Widespread snow on Wednesday morning with the system dropping south on the 12z Euro. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Widespread snow on Wednesday morning with the system dropping south on the 12z Euro. That one is starting to look like it may have the best potential to be a widespread snowmaker. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 I like these maps better than the weather bell maps. I wonder how long they will remain free. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 The high temps on Sunday have fluctuated about 1 degree on the EURO for the past 5-6 runs, yet Tim says they are warmer every time. 50 or so at Sea-Tac is looking likely... I have not seen anything below 39 at SLE, which is what this run is showing. NWS is actually forecasting 45 that day.00Z ECMWF showed 33-34 and now shows 35-36 for the Seattle area. The 00Z run was colder than yesterday's 12Z run. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Onto another plane now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 For a free alternative, go to weather.us Their snowmaps measure snow in QPF, meaning how much precipitation is falling as snow So if an area has 0.3 inches falling as snow, it is probably about 3 inches as snow. Not quite as user friendly as WB, but I think Tim may not be available, but anyone can access weather.us It also has temperature maps, precip type, etc. No reason to be dependent on other people to post maps.I mostly go to tropical tidbits for all the other weather models. I like when tt post the w/b maps. They are nice. Checking out that site for the first time. It’s not bad... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 00Z ECMWF showed 33-34 and now shows 35-36 for the Seattle area. The 00Z run was colder than yesterday's 12Z run. Maybe I missed last nights run...Because the maps you posted look about the same as yesterday's 12z....Slightly better for snow down here.. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Widespread snow on Wednesday morning with the system dropping south on the 12z Euro.Where do you find the maps? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Good afd from Seattle NWS. Saying now the outflow will be very strong on Sunday. 3 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 This euro isn't showing much for my area either. Must be a little too warm. I think this run might have gotten a bit warmer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Onto another plane now. BALLER!!! Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 I really feel like models are under doing the amount of moisture on Sunday. Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 This euro isn't showing much for my area either. Must be a little too warm.Not much precip. The big snow maker is north of here and dissipates quickly as it pushes south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 BTW. Lesson learned here. Never give up on a Nina. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Maybe I missed last nights run...Because the maps you posted look about the same as yesterday's 12z....Slightly better for snow down here..I am literally only looking at the Seattle area. Information overload right now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Total snow through Sunday at 4 p.m. and the precip is done at this point for WA: Temperatures at 4 p.m. on Sunday... looks warmer than the 00Z run. Still well above freezing in Seattle. I get fingered by blue! Yay! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Widespread snow on Wednesday morning with the system dropping south on the 12z Euro. Certainly looks like the best shot at a real snow event but temps look suspect. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 The blocking and continued chances for snow in the long range is really something. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 I think this run might have gotten a bit warmer.I keep hearing how every run has gotten warmer but I’m not seeing it. Fluctuations in snow amounts, precip type and timing aren’t synonymous with “warmer”. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 FXUS66 KSEW 161758 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 958 AM PST Fri Feb 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS...A broad trough of low pressure will pass southeast through Western Washington today. Windy conditions and heavy mountain snow are expected Saturday as a deepening surface low tracks southeast down Vancouver Island and then across to northeast Washington. On Sunday, a modified arctic cold front will move southward through the area, bringing the possibility of lowland snow, as well as strong wind. It will be followed from late Sunday through Tuesday with dry weather but some of the coldest air so far this winter. && .SHORT TERM...Active and potentially impactful weather coming up this weekend, first on Saturday in the form of wind and heavy mountain snow, then on Sunday with the potential for lowland snow and strong northeast-north Fraser Outflow wind. Coldest air mass of the winter is expected from Sunday night through Monday night. Though today`s weather is not insignificant, it is the lesser concern compared with Saturday, Sunday, and beyond. The current round of Winter Weather Advisories in the Cascades is verifying well. Precip and wind will generally be on a decreasing trend for the rest of today, as a broad trough of low pressure in northwest flow aloft exits. On Saturday, a deepening low pressure center will move southeast down Vancouver Island, then track east near Vancouver B.C. and continue deepening as it moves to northeast Washington. At it closest approach, the central pressure of the low will be near 998 mb. Strengthening or deepening lows typically come with more lift and greater impact. The low will be preceded by a large swath of warm advection lift, while northwest flow aloft is a great direction for enhancing orographic lift and snowfall totals over the Cascades, including the main highway passes. Some of the heaviest snow totals in the passes come in this type of pattern. Will be issuing a Winter Storm Warning for the mountains for Saturday in the next hour or so. One to two feet or more of snow seem likely. Avalanche danger will be elevated given the heavy snow and wind. Southwest gradients will really pick up as the low makes it closest approach around mid-day Saturday. Models bring the HQM-SEA gradient to around +4 to +4.5 mb, and the UIL-BLI gradient should reach near +5 mb around mid-day Saturday. GFS MOS peaks the sustained wind at Shelton, Tacoma Narrows, Tacoma McChord, Sea- Tac, and West Point (Discovery Park) at 34, 28, 31, 27, and 34 knots respectively in the southwest wind mid-day Saturday. With 925 mb winds of 40-50 knots and cold advection during this period, wind gusts of 45-50 mph are totally reasonable for the South and Central Sound regions. Further north, a strong westerly surge is expected through the Strait during the afternoon. NW flow aloft favors such surges impinging on land areas on the U.S. side of the Strait and the Admiralty Inlet area. Given all these things, have gone with a round of Wind Advisories for tomorrow. Would not be surprised if one or two zones pick up a few stronger gusts. After the low exits east on Saturday night, a cold front will spread out of B.C. into Western Washington on Sunday morning, aided by strong Fraser Outflow wind. The Bellingham to Williams Lake gradient could exceed -20 mb on Sunday morning, making this a strong outflow event. May eventually need a High Wind Warning for Western Whatcom County on Sunday. This pattern will cause a sharp modified arctic cold front to slip southward. The air aloft will be cold, so low-level convergence near the frontal boundary and some instability could support snow showers as the front moves south. The Port Angeles area is most likely to get snow, given northeast wind upsloping along the north-facing side of the Olympic Mtns. The Puget Sound lowlands should get spotty accumulations of an inch or two. Emphasis on "spotty", meaning some places will miss out altogether. The latest UW-WRF model paints the more widespread areas of snow from Tacoma and Shelton on south through Lewis County. Haner .LONG TERM...From Previous Discussion: Monday and Tuesday will be dry but chilly with northerly flow aloft. Fraser outflow will ease but modified arctic air will linger over the area. Highs will be mostly in the mid to upper 30s and lows will be in the 20s with some teens in spots. Some of this will depend on if there is any snow on the ground from Sunday. A weather system will drop down from the north later Wednesday or Wednesday night for another chance of rain or snow. Schneider Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Where do you find the maps? You can view precip maps here http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf_usa.php Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Total snow on the ground after the Wednesday event. Not bad 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Certainly looks like the best shot at a real snow event but temps look suspect. us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018021612_129_1256_241.pngus_model-en_modez_2018021612_129_494_155.pngus_model-en-087-0_modez_2018021612_129_494_488.pngThat looks like a snow event for a few people on higher terrain at best. Does anyone think otherwise? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 I keep hearing how every run has gotten warmer but I’m not seeing it. Fluctuations in snow amounts, precip type and timing aren’t synonymous with “warmer”. I agree Jesse. And overall the models from start to finish have improved. Have you seen the GFS ensemble. OMG. Pretty much 10 days where the mean is -5C or lower....Given that I'm not sure we've even verified below -5C at 850mb this winter, that is pretty notable. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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