February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Blizzard777]

It's a holiday weekend and it's the Seattle NWS. They often wait until it's basically a done deal before issuing anything that might possibly alarm the public or please weenies.

Lol, I look to this group for my weather forecast now

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Heavy rain showers here this morning in Victoria. Let's keep some of this moisture around for the arrival of the Arctic front. I keep looking at the upper level pattern and seeing a pattern tonight into tomorrow morning ripe for significant snowfalls, then I look at the models and it's pretty meh. With an Arctic front quickly moving into all this moisture, the coldest upper level airmass in 5+ years, very low 500mb heights and throwing February daytime heating into the mix, it's hard to imagine there won't be some heavy convective snow showers in many areas tomorrow morning into the afternoon. There's plenty of instability there up to tomorrow evening. Normally we only get dry-blasted with fast moving lows pulling a slow bleed of Arctic air behind them, where the dry air arrives well before the cold air, this time the cold will arrive before the dry air (850mb are cold enough for snow as early as midnight tonight).

[Esquimalt]

Heavy rain showers here this morning in Victoria. Let's keep some of this moisture around for the arrival of the Arctic front. I keep looking at the upper level pattern and seeing a pattern tonight into tomorrow morning ripe for significant snowfalls, then I look at the models and it's pretty meh. With an Arctic front quickly moving into all this moisture, the coldest upper level airmass in 5+ years, very low 500mb heights and throwing February daytime heating into the mix, it's hard to imagine there won't be some heavy convective snow showers in many areas tomorrow morning into the afternoon. There's plenty of instability there up to tomorrow evening. Normally we only get dry-blasted with fast moving lows pulling a slow bleed of Arctic air behind them, where the dry air arrives well before the cold air, this time the cold will arrive before the dry air (850mb are cold enough for snow as early as midnight tonight).

I think you're right, it's just that this arctic air is so dry, and outflow tends to dry things out further.  That's why I think after about 1:00 tomorrow afternoon our snow shots will be over here in Victoria.  What are your predictions for your overnight snowfall?  

 

Does anyone have the Euro snow maps thru the Wednesday system?  

[Perturbed Member]

Yeah, looks like a round of snow on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning followed by another round on Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Energy dropping down the coast stays fairly west and is well positioned off of Newport at 120 hours.

 

 

Yeah looks much more exciting than tomorrow for most of us down here IMO. 

 

Euro has been pretty consistent with showing widespread accumulating snow here for a few runs now, can't ever be a bad thing.

[Parksvillewx]

Heavy rain showers here this morning in Victoria. Let's keep some of this moisture around for the arrival of the Arctic front. I keep looking at the upper level pattern and seeing a pattern tonight into tomorrow morning ripe for significant snowfalls, then I look at the models and it's pretty meh. With an Arctic front quickly moving into all this moisture, the coldest upper level airmass in 5+ years, very low 500mb heights and throwing February daytime heating into the mix, it's hard to imagine there won't be some heavy convective snow showers in many areas tomorrow morning into the afternoon. There's plenty of instability there up to tomorrow evening. Normally we only get dry-blasted with fast moving lows pulling a slow bleed of Arctic air behind them, where the dry air arrives well before the cold air, this time the cold will arrive before the dry air (850mb are cold enough for snow as early as midnight tonight).

 

 

Looks juicy for somewhere on East VI to get some heavy strait effect. Nanaimo to Duncan looks like the sweet spot.

[ShawniganLake]

Where did 850s bottom out with the 1990 event in the BC interior compared to this pattern?

The old PSU panels suggest -25 to -30C in 1990

 

[MossMan]

[Perturbed Member]

Snow on the ground after the Wednesday system

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I think you're right, it's just that this arctic air is so dry, and outflow tends to dry things out further.  That's why I think after about 1:00 tomorrow afternoon our snow shots will be over here in Victoria.  What are your predictions for your overnight snowfall?  

 

Does anyone have the Euro snow maps thru the Wednesday system?  

 

The airmass doesn't look any drier than a typical modified Arctic airmass and less so than a backdoor airmass. I'm thinking our window ends around 4pm (though the navgem is the only model that seems to support this). Best guess is we probably end up with 2~3".

[ShawniganLake]

[Blizzard777]

They did!

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA

1020 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2008

...A MAJOR DISRUPTIVE WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT MOST OF WESTERN

WASHINGTON LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...

.A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION INLAND OVER

WESTERN WASHINGTON STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING

THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. A COMBINATION OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...

HEAVY SNOW...STRONG WINDS AND ICE BUILDUPS ARE EXPECTED.

SAN JUAN COUNTY-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-SOUTHWEST INTERIOR-

WESTERN SKAGIT COUNTY-EVERETT AND VICINITY-SEATTLE/BREMERTON AREA-

TACOMA AREA-ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-HOOD CANAL AREA-

LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AREA-CENTRAL COAST-

1020 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAN JUAN...WESTERN

WHATCOM...AND WESTERN SKAGIT COUNTIES...EVERETT AND VICINITY...

SEATTLE...BREMERTON...TACOMA...ADMIRALTY INLET...HOOD CANAL...

AND LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AREAS...AND THE CENTRAL COAST FROM 4 PM

SATURDAY TO 4 PM PST SUNDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO

4 PM PST SUNDAY.

A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS ON TAP THIS WEEKEND. HEAVY SNOW IS

EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND

THEN SPREAD INTO THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON EARLY

SATURDAY EVENING. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR ON THE KITSAP

PENINSULA...ALONG HOOD CANAL...AND FROM OLYMPIA AND CHEHALIS WEST

TO THE CENTRAL COAST NEAR OCEAN SHORES. 10 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW

IS EXPECTED CLOSE TO THE HOOD CANAL. OTHER LOCATIONS WITHIN THIS

AREA SHOULD GET 5 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW.

ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR NORTH OF TACOMA...INCLUDING SEATTLE AND

EVERETT...STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED.

WESTERN SKAGIT AND WHATCOM COUNTIES SHOULD RECEIVE ABOUT 3 TO 5

INCHES OF SNOW. IN GENERAL...LIGHTER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE

CASCADE FOOTHILLS WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS FARTHER WEST ALONG THE

SHORES OF PUGET SOUND. SOME PARTS OF EASTERN KING COUNTY...WHERE

WIND IS A BIG THREAT...WILL RECEIVE 1 INCH OR LESS OF SNOWFALL.

LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...LOCATIONS FROM TACOMA ON

SOUTH THROUGH LEWIS COUNTY AND WEST TO THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TO

MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. FREEZING RAIN IS MOST LIKELY IN

GRAYS HARBOR COUNTY AND THE LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY. IF MORE

PRECIPITATION OCCURS IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN THAN SNOW...

THEN AN ICE STORM WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN

EXCESS OF ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. THIS IS NOT A CERTAINTY BUT

SHOULD BE KEPT IN MIND. ICE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF CAUSING POWER

LINES AND LARGE TREE BRANCHES TO SNAP AND CAUSE MAJOR TRAVEL

DISRUPTIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...

SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO

POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

10yrs ago!

Lol, you suck! I almost bought it thinking what changed!

[Front Ranger]

Looks like CA finally gets some action towards the end of the Euro.

[HighlandExperience]

D9BF6ACF-3068-46C6-B45F-1AFA9FB23205.png

I could live with this.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Looks juicy for somewhere on East VI to get some heavy strait effect. Nanaimo to Duncan looks like the sweet spot.

 

Yep, somewhere in that region will get blasted with 8"+ of snow. I wouldn't be surprised if light-moderate strait-effect snow lingers for your area throughout the day. The models often overdo how quickly that area clears out. February 2011 was a good example, I remember a full day of unmodeled strait-effect snow in Nanoose with nearly 6" by the end of it. The colder the 850mb temperature the better, your area should do well (perhaps 4"+). November 2006 and 2010 were also very snowy there in spite of anemic snowfall forecasts.

[Front Ranger]

D9BF6ACF-3068-46C6-B45F-1AFA9FB23205.png

 

If SEA and PDX both end up with 3"+ over the next 6 days, that's a win for second half of February.

[umadbro]

Still thinking a deformation band sets up tomorrow evening somewhere around a McMinnville to scappoose line.

[Front Ranger]

Mossman and Jake are gonna get buried tomorrow.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

This feels like it keeps trending a little bit further SW.  Could put the north half of the valley in potentially decent deformation.

[Parksvillewx]

Yep, somewhere in that region will get blasted with 8"+ of snow. I wouldn't be surprised if light-moderate strait-effect snow lingers for your area throughout the day. The models often overdo how quickly that area clears out. February 2011 was a good example, I remember a full day of unmodeled strait-effect snow in Nanoose with nearly 6" by the end of it. The colder the 850mb temperature the better, your area should do well (perhaps 4"+). November 2006 and 2010 were also very snowy there in spite of anemic snowfall forecasts.

 

Feb 2011 was great. All day snow.  Looking forward to following this tonight.

[Phil]

Honestly, expecting more than the Sun/Mon event (in terms of cold/snow this time of year) is setting really high expectations.

 

It may only be the beginning of a cold/troughy period, but we'd be very lucky to see a deeper/colder trough than the one this weekend over the next couple weeks. In terms of dynamic events, this is probably the main attraction. That being said, plenty of potential for more lowland snowfalls and cold outflow.

You talking averages or absolutes?

[MossMan]

Heavy rain, breezy winds, and 46 currently!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

51 with mild WSW flow and really light rain.  The shadowing here is crazy.  Sometimes a patch of blue sky will show up but then it will go back to all cloudy with less shadowing. I really want to see a sharp temp drop tonight into tomorrow.  I haven't been outside to experience one that will drop temps quickly down into the 30s in a long time.

[MossMan]

Feb 2011 was great. All day snow. Looking forward to following this tonight.

Feb. 2011 was excellent for my area as well, 18” of the white stuff!

[MossMan]

Mossman and Jake are gonna get buried tomorrow.

Sure hope so!!

[snow_wizard]

ECMWF is better for snowfall.  About 1.5" for East Puget Sound lowlands.  It now shows 2 inches for Wednesday night.

[ShawniganLake]

Sunbreaks. Heavy showers and strong SW winds here.

[snow_wizard]

Honestly, expecting more than the Sun/Mon event (in terms of cold/snow this time of year) is setting really high expectations.

 

It may only be the beginning of a cold/troughy period, but we'd be very lucky to see a deeper/colder trough than the one this weekend over the next couple weeks. In terms of dynamic events, this is probably the main attraction. That being said, plenty of potential for more lowland snowfalls and cold outflow.

 

I agree, but subsequent cold shots could have a better setup for snow without being as cold.  I'm just thrilled at least one more outflow of cold continental air appears to be very much on the table.  No doubt this is going to be an extraordinary 10 day period for this late.  I think -8 to -11 or so for the 10 day average could happen.

[Blizzard777]

Power outages begin

[Winterdog]

Mossman and Jake are gonna get buried tomorrow.

At my age that takes on a somber tone.

[HighlandExperience]

ECMWF is better for snowfall.  About 1.5" for East Puget Sound lowlands.  It now shows 2 inches for Wednesday night.

 

We need to do well with this initial snowfall on Sunday. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm feeling pretty positive about tomorrow up here. Surprised the NWS hasn't put up an advisory for the foothills and coast range yet. Their zone forecast says 3-6"

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Blowing real hard here. 49mph so far

[Front Ranger]

You talking averages or absolutes?

 

Absolutes. 

 

Averages are rapidly getting warmer from here on out.

[Front Ranger]

I agree, but subsequent cold shots could have a better setup for snow without being as cold.  I'm just thrilled at least one more outflow of cold continental air appears to be very much on the table.  No doubt this is going to be an extraordinary 10 day period for this late.  I think -8 to -11 or so for the 10 day average could happen.

 

Agreed. Can't ask for more this late in the season.

[snow_wizard]

Absolutes. 

 

Averages are rapidly getting warmer from here on out.

 

That doesn't matter a lot with such an anomalous pattern though.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Agreed. Can't ask for more this late in the season.

Well, you could--but that's not going to make it happen.

[snow_wizard]

This strom is really dynamic.  

 

SW gusting to 48 at SEA

W gusting into the 50s in the Strait

N gusting to 58 along the west coast of Vancouver Island

[MossMan]

Getting wild out there!

[snow_wizard]

The strength of this low is going to really pull the cold air into BC today.

[Perturbed Member]

ICON, NAVGEM and ECMWF all have a pretty similar track for the Wednesday low, they keep things quite a bit further west and over the water. This is what we need to win.

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is in contrast to the GFS and GEM that have a weaker low that is further east. Hopefully team EURO wins this.