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February 6th-7th Plains/MW/Lower Lakes System


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The 3rd, in a series of weather disturbances since this past weekend, is showing signs of a better phasing storm system coming up from the southern plains and tracking towards the OV.  Most models have all jumped on the idea of a light/mod accumulating snowfall from the central Plains ENE towards the lower lakes.  Let's discuss...

 

 

Here is the 00z/06z GFS snowfall forecasts during this period...

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Views from my balcony this beautiful morning.

1-2” expected here tonight. This would just about get us back to normal snowfall season to date at 31”. Quite the comeback.

Puking huge flakes right now.  Visibility just a few blocks in town.  If this keeps up we might push 4" or more.  Winter wonderland here.

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12z NAM showing a ribbon of snow from near KC through the lower lakes...another couple inches in Chitown???

I can actually see this wave getting stronger/wetter for our area doubling what you mentioned above

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My bad...so many waves it gets confusing which is a good thing!

I was confused also.  We just had some mixed precipitation move through with a temp of 11.  Weird.  Overnight through first half of Tuesday they are saying 3-4 inches, possibly more, mainly south of I-80 in Central Nebraska.  That will add to my solid 5" or more and then eyes turn to the weekend.  Tom, you have drawn me back in.  :)

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Its too bad this storm system is moving too fast and not slower. It is preventing it from phasing, even though, the track is beautiful. Go figure. This would have been one heckova snowstorm. It will bypass SEMI, but close enough to give me some lighter snows w a couple of inches.

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ICON has been trending better, now suggests 1-2" up to Cedar Rapids.

season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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We're gonna nickel and dime our way to a 6" depth here.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 7.9"            Coldest Low: 11*F (10/26)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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The 3rd, in a series of weather disturbances since this past weekend, is showing signs of a better phasing storm system coming up from the southern plains and tracking towards the OV.  Most models have all jumped on the idea of a light/mod accumulating snowfall from the central Plains ENE towards the lower lakes.  Let's discuss...

 

 

Here is the 00z/06z GFS snowfall forecasts during this period...

 

It's challenging just to parse the snowfall maps with so many waves in succession. I like the looks of the 6z map, anything more would be cake icing

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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NWS Hastings has already put us back into a Winter Weather Advisory for tomorrow for 2-4 inches, especially south of I-80 into Northern Kansas.

 

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected during the day Tuesday. Plan on slippery
road conditions. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are
forecast.

* WHERE...Portions of north central Kansas and east central and
south central Nebraska.

* WHEN...From 6 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Visibilities may be reduced at times during
the snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.
The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

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"Sneaky" over-performer in the making?? Benefitted from several such systems already this winter, why not another one?? What the heck? 

 

CPC per Friday was chucking us in SMI a bone

 

20180202_CPC_hazards_d3_7.png

 

This looks pretty robust to my eyes, and yeah, like Niko mentioned, IF this woulda phased slightly coulda been a Warned event

 

20180205 7am ICast map for Wed the 7th.gif

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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"Sneaky" over-performer in the making?? Benefitted from several such systems already this winter, why not another one?? What the heck? 

 

CPC per Friday was chucking us in SMI a bone

 

attachicon.gif20180202_CPC_hazards_d3_7.png

 

This looks pretty robust to my eyes, and yeah, like Niko mentioned, IF this woulda phased slightly coulda been a Warned event

 

attachicon.gif20180205 7am ICast map for Wed the 7th.gif

This thing bears watching Jaster, as our region has potential for some heavy snow Tues night into Wednesday. Track is still in the air.

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This thing bears watching Jaster, as our region has potential for some heavy snow Tues night into Wednesday. Track is still in the air.

 

GRR not sold on a huge deal, but would not be surprised to see radar blossom a lot better at game-time and a last-minute increase in totals happen. GRR failed to forecast both Jan 12th and 29th "surprise" events in their far SE corner that they prefer to "put on ignore" whenever possible. 

 

"Another period of snow is expected for Tuesday night into Wednesday

that will also be lake enhanced and as a surface low tracks to our

SE. Another 1 to 4 inches is expected from this event.."

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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GRR not sold on a huge deal, but would not be surprised to see radar blossom a lot better at game-time and a last-minute increase in totals happen. GRR failed to forecast both Jan 12th and 29th "surprise" events in their far SE corner that they prefer to "put on ignore" whenever possible. 

 

"Another period of snow is expected for Tuesday night into Wednesday

that will also be lake enhanced and as a surface low tracks to our

SE. Another 1 to 4 inches is expected from this event.."

All it takes is a small shift. Could this be another surprise, overachiever snowstorm in the making??!!

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WWA's issued for S NE/KC/N MO and into C IL....a good chance at seeing another re-fresher for CentralNeb as well as into N IL with a couple inches of snow.  I could get used to these day-to-day chances of snow.  Is this what it feels like up near the lake belts but with much vigor??

 

LOT's take...

 

Tab2FileL.png?627ee1bba0a3c003ba5d14b06f

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What are we thinking on ratios for this thing?

 

I'm with you Tom, I'd take a nice fresh layer tomorrow morning. Between the early week system and the anticipated system Friday, this is the one I've been overlooking. Might be a nice, little surprise here in N/C IL. 

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What are we thinking on ratios for this thing?

 

I'm with you Tom, I'd take a nice fresh layer tomorrow morning. Between the early week system and the anticipated system Friday, this is the one I've been overlooking. Might be a nice, little surprise here in N/C IL. 

Pretty high snow ratios.  LOT suggesting 16:-17:1 north of I-80 and higher ratios south of the I-80 corridor.  I think your area down near Springvalley is going to do quite well, esp if meso-scale banding develops like it did with last nights system.  How much did you get last night?

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I'll take 2" to cover up the grass completely. That would make the depth at my place about 4-5", which should hopefully be enough to knock temps down a couple degrees Thursday. Current forecasted high is 38.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 7.9"            Coldest Low: 11*F (10/26)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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WWA's issued for S NE/KC/N MO and into C IL....a good chance at seeing another re-fresher for CentralNeb as well as into N IL with a couple inches of snow.  I could get used to these day-to-day chances of snow.  Is this what it feels like up near the lake belts but with much vigor??

 

LOT's take...

 

Tab2FileL.png?627ee1bba0a3c003ba5d14b06f

 

Pretty much, yes. I too love the frequent snows which keeps winter looking very fresh. Models pretty set on 2.5" for Marshall. Really was hopefull this might ramp up more, but dynamics must be lame. Idk, but it's finally a system delivering a snow swath across the Sub, and can't get amped, lol

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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I'll take 2" to cover up the grass completely. That would make the depth at my place about 4-5", which should hopefully be enough to knock temps down a couple degrees Thursday. Current forecasted high is 38.

 

Yikes  :(

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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It feels nice to be relevant in EVERY thread. Now I know how Michigan posters feel!

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 7.9"            Coldest Low: 11*F (10/26)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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It looks interesting for later tanite into early morning. Its too bad we will not be getting the phase to occur, but, 2-4" is still looking possible. Maybe, we can overachieve some totals. Lets wait and see on that. In the meantime, not a bad event. Heavy snows will be to my E for now, unless, it changes its track. It will be a fun storm to track, that's for sure.

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It feels nice to be relevant in EVERY thread. Now I know how Michigan posters feel!

 

D*amn straight!  #Michiganrockswinter  ;) (really tho, you need 4x that snow total to get the full effects)

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Yikes  :(

Actually might not be too bad. If we overachieve today, we can survive a 38 degree day with the grass still covered even though it won't be powder anymore. And it would melt the brown gunk off my apartment's parking lot since they're refusing to plow it themselves.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 7.9"            Coldest Low: 11*F (10/26)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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It looks interesting for later tanite into early morning. Its too bad we will not be getting the phase to occur, but, 2-4" is still looking possible. Maybe, we can overachieve some totals. Lets wait and see on that. In the meantime, not a bad event. Heavy snows will be to my E for now, unless, it changes its track. It will be a fun storm to track, that's for sure.

 

Can't be worse than last night's miss. What'd you get anyways? Had only 1.1" in Marshall

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Pretty high snow ratios.  LOT suggesting 16:-17:1 north of I-80 and higher ratios south of the I-80 corridor.  I think your area down near Springvalley is going to do quite well, esp if meso-scale banding develops like it did with last nights system.  How much did you get last night?

 

I measured 4" IMBY from last night's system. Airport nearby in Peru is reporting just under that. Very scenic outside on my way into work this morning with all the trees whitened up.

 

I think 2" would be a fair call for here based on recent model runs for tonight/early tomorrow morning. Hoping it hangs around through the morning to watch some of it fall. We'll see what HRRR and close range NAM's have to say today.

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Heavier returns in North Central KS are headed up here. I'm excited. Dry slot in South Central NE is filling in. I have a big advantage being in SE Lancaster County too.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 7.9"            Coldest Low: 11*F (10/26)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Really been coming down here the last 1.5 hours.  Radar still looks great.  Maybe we can top 3"

How's the flake size? 

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 7.9"            Coldest Low: 11*F (10/26)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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How's the flake size?

 

I have PTSD from yesterday. Hopefully the 1" we're expected to get from this will not be dust.

2019-20 Snowfall:

 

TOTAL: 28.6"

(Oct. 29: 2.5") (Oct. 31: 4.7") (Nov 11. 4.1") (Dec. 9: 0.3") (Dec. 11: 1.3") (Jan. 3: 1.0") (Jan. 11: 2.1") (Jan. 17: 4.7") (Jan. 23: 3.1") (Jan 24. 3.6") (Jan. 28: 0.7") (Feb. 13: 1.5")

 

 

Formerly NWLinn

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I have PTSD from yesterday. Hopefully the 1" we're expected to get from this will not be dust.

Yeah same here. Came down steady for about 4 hours but we had 3 hours 40 minutes of white sand followed by 20 minutes of fat flakes.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 7.9"            Coldest Low: 11*F (10/26)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Although it it's only an inch, so I'm not sure why I care so much.

2019-20 Snowfall:

 

TOTAL: 28.6"

(Oct. 29: 2.5") (Oct. 31: 4.7") (Nov 11. 4.1") (Dec. 9: 0.3") (Dec. 11: 1.3") (Jan. 3: 1.0") (Jan. 11: 2.1") (Jan. 17: 4.7") (Jan. 23: 3.1") (Jan 24. 3.6") (Jan. 28: 0.7") (Feb. 13: 1.5")

 

 

Formerly NWLinn

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I'd be surprised if OAX didn't issue a WWA in the next couple hours considering GID and TOP already have.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 7.9"            Coldest Low: 11*F (10/26)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Yeah I don't think the dry slot currently over McCook and Araphoe should be an issue to us. Looks like the precip waves are combining.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 7.9"            Coldest Low: 11*F (10/26)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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