james1976 Posted February 9, 2018 Report Share Posted February 9, 2018 1.7" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted February 9, 2018 Report Share Posted February 9, 2018 I'll bet you a penny that by Monday night; when all is said and done; the Rapid City NWS office measures more snow than Chicago O'Hare from now until then. So you won't have to take my ruler's word for it. Rapid City NWS WFO might be the only station around here that does worse than me. I'm ahead of them by 2.8" on the season...17.2" to 14.4". Just 7/10ths of an inch of snow from this system down at the Rapid City NWS WFO as of 5 PM MDT...so beating O'Hare is going to be a very tall order indeed! It is snowing rather earnestly in the Black Hills at present and should continue to do so into Friday...so we'll see what happens. I have snow, blowing snow, and very dense fog at 6:42 PM MDT...with a temp of 11 F and a very gusty NE wind. To show the crazy temp gradient, it was raining at Custer at 6 PM MDT with a temperature of 37 F; Custer being about 25 miles to my SW. Custer is also over 5000' in elevation...so the warm layer aloft very noticeable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 9, 2018 Report Share Posted February 9, 2018 Cedar Rapids sure looks like they are going to hang on to that snow band for awhile yet 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 9, 2018 Report Share Posted February 9, 2018 The radar is showing signs of sinking south but it’s not even snowing here right now even though the radar shows it should be. So that seems like a bad sign. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 9, 2018 Report Share Posted February 9, 2018 looks like the southern edge has stopped it's march north Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 9, 2018 Report Share Posted February 9, 2018 Cedar Rapids sure looks like they are going to hang on to that snow band for awhile yet I thought the back edge would lift into the CR area by evening, but radar continues to fill in along the edge and bring continued light to moderate snow into the metro. I still expect to get a lull at some point later, but it's decent so far. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 9, 2018 Report Share Posted February 9, 2018 1.5 inches here so far, snowing nicely. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted February 9, 2018 Report Share Posted February 9, 2018 DVN issued an update to their AFD saying that they think the heaviest band will be in Cedar Rapids and Dubuque. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 9, 2018 Report Share Posted February 9, 2018 I hope the 3km Nam is drunk tonight. The width of good stuff really went downhill. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 9, 2018 Report Share Posted February 9, 2018 This thing seems way north of the models. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 9, 2018 Report Share Posted February 9, 2018 DVN issued an update to their AFD saying that they think the heaviest band will be in Cedar Rapids and Dubuque. Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATEDNational Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL756 PM CST Thu Feb 8 2018 .UPDATE...Issued at 749 PM CST Thu Feb 8 2018 Very narrow band of heavy snow forming across central Iowa willtrack east through the late evening and overnight. Hires guidanceappears to be slightly north of where the heavy band of snow willbe. Think the band will be between CID and DBQ. H85 fgen seems tobe a good prognosticator for where the band is currently. Crosssections suggest that the forcing may be the H7 fgen later in theperiod. Regardless, latest forecast attempts to capitalize onwhere the band is. Have brought down amounts for the QC as snow isgradually shifting north. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 9, 2018 Report Share Posted February 9, 2018 Is this thing craping out before our eyes? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 9, 2018 Report Share Posted February 9, 2018 Nam now showing 3-4” tomorrow night into Saturday morning for Cr and IC. That might be our best shot down here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakjen Posted February 9, 2018 Report Share Posted February 9, 2018 Maybe I will have better luck with round 2 on Saturday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 9, 2018 Report Share Posted February 9, 2018 .....lools like trash except the 10mi wide band. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 9, 2018 Report Share Posted February 9, 2018 I hope the 3km Nam is drunk tonight. The width of good stuff really went downhill.You getting snow down there? Radar looks good right now. Even a few flakes up this way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 9, 2018 Report Share Posted February 9, 2018 You getting snow down there? Radar looks good right now. Even a few flakes up this way.Ya snowing pretty good now. Might squeak a couple inches Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 9, 2018 Report Share Posted February 9, 2018 2.1" here. Constant moderate snow here. However.....not liking that dry air moving in soon. Radar is filling in behind it though.PS: That is a very narrow heavy band forming across C IA. Dang! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 9, 2018 Report Share Posted February 9, 2018 God DVN I hope you're right. The look on guidance is absolutely terrible. Shafted by 5 miles. I'd rather give Duluth snow than deal with this. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 9, 2018 Report Share Posted February 9, 2018 I'm averaging about 1/2" per hour rates so far with this system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 9, 2018 Report Share Posted February 9, 2018 Ya snowing pretty good now. Might squeak a couple inchesRadar looks solid for 2-4 ish for us which is better than what it was showing a day or two ago Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 9, 2018 Report Share Posted February 9, 2018 Flake size not that good for the past hour Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 9, 2018 Report Share Posted February 9, 2018 Radar looks solid for 2-4 ish for us which is better than what it was showing a day or two agoWhen you look at how narrow the solid fronto band is gonna be it really makes on realize how much of a thread the needle this turned into Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 9, 2018 Report Share Posted February 9, 2018 Area Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL813 PM CST Thu Feb 8 2018 .UPDATE...813 PM CST No big changes planned to the overall forecast for the storm,however, will likely move up the end time of the warning Friday asthe brunt of the snow will likely have fallen by mid-late morningFriday in the warning. Regional radar composite shows a long band of mostly light tomoderate snow extending from northern IL WNW into SD. A short wavetrough over the Dakotas early this evening shows up fairly wellon GOES-16 differential water vapor RGB. This shortwave isforecast to shear quickly into the western Great Lakes Fridaymorning, shearing out/weakening as it translates eastward. Primarily light-moderate snow will continue this evening asthermally direct circulation in the right entrance region of120kt+ 250mb jet supports continued low-mid level frontogenesisover about the northern 2/3rds of the CWA. As the Dakota`sshortwave translates eastward, guidance suggests a strengtheningof the lower level f-gen and a resultant uptick in the UVVs overnorthern IL. Forecast vertical cross sections through the frontal band are abit worrisome for our double digit snowfall forecast amounts. Thelast several runs of the RAP and 18z run of the NAM show virtuallyno negative saturated EPV, which indicates that the atmosphere isprogged to be relatively stable and not primed for narrow intensebanded snow. In addition, guidance suggests that areas of strongerf-gen will be somewhat transient in nature. While these factorsare concerning, short range high-res guidance continues toadvertise very beefy QPF values overnight into at least the firstpart of Friday morning, so not planning any changes to ourforecast snowfall totals at this point. There has been a pretty consistent signal across the spectrum ofmodel guidance suggesting that the meaningful snowfall will shiftmainly south of the winter storm warning area between 12-18zFriday as shearing out shortwave passes east and associated heightfalls nudge the upper jet and associated entrance region a bitfarther south. Given the expectation that snowfall across much ofthe warning area will waning prior to 18z, think that formessaging purposes an earlier end time to the warning isjustifiable. Latest guidance suggests that additional snowfallaccumulations beyond late morning would be somewhat trivial wherethe warning is in effect. Working on some fine tuning to grids and will have an updated WSWand grids/derived products out shortly. - Izzi Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 9, 2018 Report Share Posted February 9, 2018 The above from LOT is not good at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted February 9, 2018 Report Share Posted February 9, 2018 Izzi already having doubts: Forecast vertical cross sections through the frontal band are abit worrisome for our double digit snowfall forecast amounts. Thelast several runs of the RAP and 18z run of the NAM show virtuallyno negative saturated EPV, which indicates that the atmosphere isprogged to be relatively stable and not primed for narrow intensebanded snow. In addition, guidance suggests that areas of strongerf-gen will be somewhat transient in nature. While these factorsare concerning, short range high-res guidance continues toadvertise very beefy QPF values overnight into at least the firstpart of Friday morning, so not planning any changes to ourforecast snowfall totals at this point Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 9, 2018 Report Share Posted February 9, 2018 Highest rates right now. Bigtime thread the needle. I'm sitting right on the north edge of the heavy band. It keeps feeding in from the west.Some of those dry radar returns to my NW have filled in so that's great to see as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted February 9, 2018 Report Share Posted February 9, 2018 Izzi already having doubts: Forecast vertical cross sections through the frontal band are abit worrisome for our double digit snowfall forecast amounts. Thelast several runs of the RAP and 18z run of the NAM show virtuallyno negative saturated EPV, which indicates that the atmosphere isprogged to be relatively stable and not primed for narrow intensebanded snow. In addition, guidance suggests that areas of strongerf-gen will be somewhat transient in nature. While these factorsare concerning, short range high-res guidance continues toadvertise very beefy QPF values overnight into at least the firstpart of Friday morning, so not planning any changes to ourforecast snowfall totals at this point thought it was odd that he contradicts himself when he talks about the high-res guidance QPF Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted February 9, 2018 Report Share Posted February 9, 2018 Highest rates right now. Bigtime thread the needle. I'm sitting right on the north edge of the heavy band. It keeps feeding in from the west.Some of those dry radar returns to my NW have filled in so that's great to see as well.that band in fort dodge, has to be dumping Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted February 9, 2018 Report Share Posted February 9, 2018 Wow 4km nam and regular nam look good for 3 to 5 here! Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 9, 2018 Report Share Posted February 9, 2018 I'm in the perfect spot, for the time being. It doesn't look like I will be all night. But I've been under that heavy band for awhile and I've got to be approaching 3" by now. If this could keep up all night... Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 9, 2018 Report Share Posted February 9, 2018 We are only a couple hours into this so will have to let it play out but signs so far are discouraging. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 9, 2018 Report Share Posted February 9, 2018 I'm in the perfect spot, for the time being. It doesn't look like I will be all night. But I've been under that heavy band for awhile and I've got to be approaching 3" by now. If this could keep up all night...You have more than me so far! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 9, 2018 Report Share Posted February 9, 2018 I'll be satisfied with nothing less than 4" here. Under that will just be another nuisance. I love snow but I'm getting tired of these nickel and dimers really fast. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 9, 2018 Report Share Posted February 9, 2018 DVN may as well suck it up and cancel the winter storm warning for the i80 corridor. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 9, 2018 Report Share Posted February 9, 2018 Just measured 2.6". Dumping good but flakes are a bit smaller now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 9, 2018 Report Share Posted February 9, 2018 DVN may as well suck it up and cancel the winter storm warning for the i80 corridor. Feel bad for you. You could literally throw a rock and hit the heavy band. That's a nasty cutoff all along that southern edge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 9, 2018 Report Share Posted February 9, 2018 Accumulations could end up being higher further north than predicted. Expect changes. Better sampling by tomorrow. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 9, 2018 Report Share Posted February 9, 2018 Waterloo is gonna get destroyed if that band keeps moving east and holds together. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 9, 2018 Report Share Posted February 9, 2018 The back edge is just about to lift through Cedar Rapids, and it may remain north for a while. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.