February 8th-11th Major Snowstorm

[Niko]

Loop poster on Amwx:

Jaster...do you have an image and post it if ya can?

[GDR]

Can’t wait to see what the curve ball will be this time!

[jaster220]

Jaster...do you have an image and post it if ya can?

 

No image was posted with that comment. 

 

This per a LOT Met for CHI peeps:

 

Some other really good f-gen death band setups around here in recent years that remind me of this one are the beginning of the late November 2015 storm, which had 6-8" amounts along/north of I-90 before our WSW had been planned to kick in and New Year's Eve and Day 2014. That event in particular synoptically reminds me of this one, which had 15-18" amounts in Lake and northern Cook counties. The band should have more westward extent this time with the high totals than that one but otherwise not a bad analog. 

[Jaycee]

I guess until my thread gets pinned, the RGEM is looking tight for us.

 

 

Here in Lincoln, we need the wee knee. It's been too long. Please be right Canada:

 

 

 

 

[GDR]

15z rap keeps the heavy band in northern ia

[gosaints]

Euro seems to max out at around .6 qpf in illinois at least with the 1st wave.  Wave 2 might pad it some.

[Tom]

[jaster220]

Here in St. Joe grid calls for 8-16" from 1st wave:

 

Detailed Forecast

This Afternoon

A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 21. West wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Tonight

Snow, mainly after 9pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 18. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming east after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Friday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 28. East wind around 10 mph becoming north in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.

[Hawkeye]

12z Euro

 

[Andrew NE]

12z Euro

 

euro_12zFeb08_mw.png

euro_12zFeb08.png

Thank you for always consistently posting these, I appreciate it.

[james1976]

Euro with the IA jackpot way out by Ft Dodge. Highway 20 special?

[hlcater]

HRRR continues to hold serve from this morning. Looks like it has 7-9" across CR metro, highest in the north. Although I'm on mobile so it's hard to tell, but there's some deeper purples over the north 2/3rds of the county. Pls come just 15 miles south.

[Niko]

I can see a small break in between these 2 potent systems, but makes me wonder if I will. Fun times ahead.

[Hawkeye]

The overwhelming model consensus now says the heavy band will just barely miss CR to the north.  Many say hw20 corridor will be the jackpot zone, while the HRRR is just barely north of CR.  I'd rather get missed by 200 miles than have to deal with this letdown.

 

My guess for CR is 4" for the entire multi-wave event.

 

Chicago to Detroit corridor has been locked into 8-12+ inches for days.  While models have wavered back and forth over here, the wave overlap zone has barely budged over there.  Must be nice.

[hlcater]

Well the atmosphere is already saturated from the light dusting we got this morning, so at least we don't have to worry about that.

[james1976]

Des Moines NWS updated their snowfall map. Has Waterloo, CR and IC in the 6-8 zone. IC is the cutoff.

[gosaints]

The srefs are relatively garbage but they jumped north at 15z

[tbone8]

Hi res NAM looking good for the Chicago folks, pert near 2 feet!

 

[Niko]

This storm has a very sharp cutoff point. Yikes.

[Minny_Weather]

We haven't had a 4"+ storm total here since February 2016. This is getting old. COME ONNNNN.

[Madtown]

wow... 22 to 2 in what 25mi?

[gosaints]

wow... 22 to 2 in what 25mi?

u will like the 15z srefs i think

[bud2380]

I've gotta say, i like the looks of the radar right now.  So unless this dries up or just starts veering due east, i think we'll settle in under a band here in CR and Iowa City areas, much like the GFS depicted.  

[Madtown]

[Tabitha]

We haven't had a 4"+ storm total here since February 2016. This is getting old. COME ONNNNN.

 

 

You just got a blizzard

[gosaints]

aren't the srefs about like the 84hr nam?

They tend to follow the NAM.

[Sciascia]

Hi res NAM looking good for the Chicago folks, pert near 2 feet!

 

NAMNSTMW_prec_kuchsnow_060.png

Holy cow.

 

P&C has my area at 10-16 inches. 8-12 tonight, and 2-4 tomorrow.

[bud2380]

The SREF is basically the NAM's ensemble, isn't it?  I think one of the SREF members is the actual NAM model run.  

[Tabitha]

We haven't had a 4"+ storm total here since February 2016. This is getting old. COME ONNNNN.

 

 

As of this moment I am 5.9" ahead of the Lincoln Airport on the season; and the Lincoln Airport under-measures...

 

So I am in the same boat.

 

Socked in with fog at the moment...temp 16 F; with the warm air to west trying to ride up and over the frigid air parked on the east side of the mountains.

 

Its in the mid 40's like 15 miles to my west.

 

If that mid 40's air was to make it this way (especially at midday!) the two crummy inches of snow on the ground here would evaporate inside of 30 minutes...

 

I don't think it is quite going to make it; but you never know.

[Madtown]

so NAM, NAM, AND MORE NAM...feels like betting on the Packers without Rodgers

[Hawkeye]

Latest HRRR, showing the entire first wave.... the red dots are the locations of, from north to south, James, NWLinnCounty, Hawkeye, Bud.

 

[gosaints]

so NAM, NAM, AND MORE NAM...feels like betting on the Packers without Rodgers

yep.  7.5 inch mean on the north side of madison

[BrianJK]

Anyone have SERFs for ORD?

[Hawkeye]

I've gotta say, i like the looks of the radar right now.  So unless this dries up or just starts veering due east, i think we'll settle in under a band here in CR and Iowa City areas, much like the GFS depicted.  

 

Yeah, radar looks good, if the orientation of the snow plume was going to remain about the same.  Unfortunately, all the models show this band pulling north later and finally parking north of CR.

[gosaints]

Anyone have SERFs for ORD?

10... About 7.5 wave 1.  2.5 wave 2

[Madtown]

I am about 25mi south.

[hlcater]

Wow that HRRR run is terrible. Ugh. If CR gets the shaft on this by 15 miles I'm gonna lose it.

[Tony]

LOT bumped up amounts...definitely no agreement with the always drier Euro.

[Jaycee]

Chicago is going to get more snow from this storm than we’ve had here in Lincoln over the past 2 years. That’s crazy bruv. What’s the thundersnow potential looking like with this (if any)?

[Tony]

Chicago is going to get more snow from this storm than we’ve had here in Lincoln over the past 2 years. That’s crazy bruv. What’s the thundersnow potential looking like with this (if any)?

If Mike Sidel from TWC shows up then there will be Thundersnow!