3/11 - 3/12 Winter Storm

[East Dubzz]

Southern wave tries to hide and run away from northern stream but northern stream will grab it quicker for a more phased amped solution like NAM.

[Money]

Actually, 0z NAM and 0z UKIE don't look too far off track wise.

 

NAM is slower and a bit stronger, but pretty similar.

[Geos]

 

Haha! Appropriate!

[james1976]

best movie ever

[Jaycee]

http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_ltxxy2jWHY1r5pjb8o1_500.gif

Dude you're on a roll today lmao

[Money]

ED, +1

 

Great movie.

 

Anyways, RAP coming in even more stronger. 992 at hr 17

[East Dubzz]

A buddy and I just text stupid GIFs to each other all the time, I've found they very useful to help explain my feelings. Lol.

[Tom]

Just look at the dynamics out west with this system already hitting the northern Rockies.  Someone posted a local AFD with reports of lighting out in Idaho.  This system is going to phase with the northern stream earlier resulting in a much stronger and amped solution.

[MKEstorm]

I'll let the Euro decide this one!

[Sciascia]

I don't know who Victor Gensini is, but I'm sure you guys do. Lol. His thoughts:
 

 

GFS is having issues with the convection to the southeast of the surface low. This is revealed in the low-level PV fields. I am betting that later GFS runs will strengthen and slide further northwest.

[Sciascia]

I'll let the Euro decide this one!

Don't. Euro had less than .10 QPF for a system that dropped 5 inches here just a couple weeks ago.

[abhidupage]

I don't know who Victor Gensini is, but I'm sure you guys do. Lol. His thoughts:

 

He's a professor at COD he knows his stuff. I would definitely take his word he knows what hes talking about.

[Money]

Hi-res models are the way to go for this.

 

NAM is probably too amped, but it will be closer to reality than GFS/Euro

[midwest buildit]

if this happens...the lion that brought march in is saying hes eating the lamb that's gonna take us into April.

in the gfs version the lamb is much bigger....

[East Dubzz]

Yeah Money, I could very well see a track similar to what the NAM shows, but totals that high... Not so much.

[Money]

0z GGEM

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/530_100.gif

 

 

12z GGEM

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/611_100.gif

 

 

4 MB stronger and a good bit NW

[Tom]

Skilling's RPM model thru 7:00am...still snows beyond this period.

[Geos]

The RGEM not being in cahoots with the NAM is interesting. Usually they are tied at the hip with regards to amped up solutions. 

 

GGEM

 

 

 

 

[midwest buildit]

i like the looks of this...

 

http://i.imgur.com/S1Yi0mg.gif

 

http://i.imgur.com/cXcLQT3.gif

[Geos]

In rare cases, you can get hail with thundersnow. That's what could happen if bright banding shows up.

 

GGEM

 

[Tom]

Interesting, Lake Michigan now has 77.6% ice coverage, down from 91% just 24 hours ago...a lot more open water and more will open up tomorrow before the storm hits.

[Sciascia]

Shame that the weather models can't adjust with Daylight Saving Time. NAM at 2:45am is a bit too late for me. 1:45am would've been tiredly doable.

[Money]

Looks like the L is right around the Denver area. Shows 999 MB on the NOAA page. 

[midwest buildit]

i might do it. i like to stay up late the night before a storm, sleep through the afternoon. It helps to make the next night of plowing easier. and i may have to be out for many hours if the nam works out..

[Sciascia]

i might do it. i like to stay up late the night before a storm, sleep through the afternoon. It helps to make the next night of plowing easier. and i may have to be out for many hours if the nam works out..

If I worked a night shift tomorrow, I'd be all over the 6z NAM. But I've got a noon shift. And if anything close to the NAM starts popping up on other models, Mariano's is gonna be busy with panicking folks.

[Tom]

I love Mariano's and their concept...I'd buy their stock and hold it for the long hawl.  This company is blowing up.

[Money]

https://twitter.com/NBCStormTeam5/status/443246371055742976/photo/1

 

lol

[midwest buildit]

i love seeing all the shelves empty, i dont understand, you don't have enough food in your house for 2-3 days? around here people freak out, but the power is always back on and the roads opened up within a day or two...lol...but when severe storms are forecast, no one thinks twice about going on there pick-nick.., when this stuff is forecast, the only thing i do is fuel up the plow truck....and the only thing i do diff is refuel it at around half a tank till it passes, just in case an area is without power.

[Sciascia]

I love Mariano's and their concept...I'd buy their stock and hold it for the long hawl. This company is blowing up.

Opened one up in Park Ridge a month ago, Northfield 2 weeks ago, another one tomorrow, and one's coming to Ravenswood the first week of April, I believe.

 

Anywho, back to weather. NMM & ARW look to have a NW look to 'em.

[Tom]

This storm reminds me of the huge storm that hit IA/MN/W WI back in February and the LRC did a good job illustrating a potential big storm.  This upcoming storm has had a history of being very strong in both LRC Cycles.  Therefore, it leads me to believe we will have ourselves a major system out of this.  I still believe the NAM is onto something (maybe not quite the totals) but nonetheless showing the dynamics this system can portray.

 

The pieces to the puzzle are coming together and as we all know, stronger systems trend farther NW so a NAM solution is very plausible.

[Tom]

Just to show you the NW trend on the GGEM...

 

12z today vs 00z tonight...last night's 00z run had the snow even farther east...so the trend is our friend and its showing up.

 

 

[Sciascia]

Just sharing what a LOT met posted. TAF for ORD:

 

TAF

KORD 110536Z 1106/1212 VRB03KT P6SM OVC200

FM111500 05007KT P6SM OVC100

FM112000 05011G16KT P6SM OVC050

FM120400 03015G22KT 1 1/2SM -SN OVC015

FM120600 01018G28KT 3/4SM -SN OVC009

TEMPO 1206/1210 1/2SM SN BLSN VV006

FM121000 36022G32KT 1SM -SN BLSN BKN009 OVC015=

[Money]

L is down to at least 998 MB.

 

Akron, CO is at 998.4 

[Money]

Actually that was about 45-50 mins ago so probably stronger than that.

[Tom]

Open rural areas and lake side counties will have near blizzard conditions with this system...40-50mph+ wind gusts, 1-2"/hr snowfall rates....whiteout conditions.

[midwest buildit]

Just sharing what a LOT met posted. TAF for ORD:

 

TAF

KORD 110536Z 1106/1212 VRB03KT P6SM OVC200

FM111500 05007KT P6SM OVC100

FM112000 05011G16KT P6SM OVC050

FM120400 03015G22KT 1 1/2SM -SN OVC015

FM120600 01018G28KT 3/4SM -SN OVC009

TEMPO 1206/1210 1/2SM SN BLSN VV006

FM121000 36022G32KT 1SM -SN BLSN BKN009 OVC015=

what does all this mean?

 

i should say,,im way to tired to decode all that...

[Sciascia]

what does all this mean?

I don't know; to be honest, I was hoping someone like Geos, Tom, etc. would have a better idea. Lol

 

Edit: Left a comment for the met asking what it all means. Hoping for an answer soon!

[midwest buildit]

(edited)sorry, change that...

 

 

TAF - Terminal Area Forecast

KORD - Chicago, Illinois

Decoded:

ID: KORD   Chicago/O'Hare, ILREPORT TIME: 11  5:36VALID TIME: 11 March AT 06:00Z to 12 March AT 12:00Z.INITIAL WX   WIND: VARIABLE AT 3   VISIBILITY: >6.0 MILES   CLOUDS: 200 OVCNEW WX STARTING: 15:00Z   WINDS: 50 AT 7   VISIBILITY: >6.0 MILES   CLOUDS: 100 OVCNEW WX STARTING: 20:00Z   WINDS: 50 AT 11 GUST 16   VISIBILITY: >6.0 MILES   CLOUDS: 50 OVCNEW WX STARTING: 04:00Z   WINDS: 30 AT 15 GUST 22   VISIBILITY: 1.5 MILES   WEATHER: -SN   CLOUDS: 15 OVCNEW WX STARTING: 06:00Z   WINDS: 10 AT 18 GUST 28   VISIBILITY: 0.8 MILES   WEATHER: -SN   CLOUDS: 9 OVCTEMPORARY WX FROM 06Z TO 10Z   VISIBILITY: 0.5 MILES   WEATHER: SN_BLSN   VERTICAL VISIBILITY: 6NEW WX STARTING: 10:00Z   WINDS: 360 AT 22 GUST 32   VISIBILITY: 1.0 MILES   WEATHER: -SN_BLSN   CLOUDS: 9 BKN   CLOUDS: 15 OVC   COMMENTS: = 

[Money]

L is down to at least 998 MB.

 

Akron, CO is at 998.4 

 

Akron, CO down to 997.8 as of 10 mins ago

[Sciascia]

FWIW, the low location at 24hrs on the Euro looks a little similar to 00z NAM, albeit about 4-6mb weaker.

 

Reading that the Euro gives Chicago .4-.6 QPF. Big improvement.