PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[RentonHill]

Our pattern from 1/17 until now

[SouthHillFrosty]

We lost the GEFS. It might be time to cancel Weatherbell……

[Phishy Wx]

you'll all be rejoicing come 2/20

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Our pattern from 1/17 until now

Interesting. Kind of different to look at patterns that have actually verified.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

We lost the GEFS. It might be time to cancel Weatherbell……

You just need to move to Crescent City, which both maps have in the blue.

[TT-SEA]

Something to watch next week... the ECMWF has been flirting with lowland snow with some c-zones following the Wednesday trough.  

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Our pattern from 1/17 until now

Easy to see how things changed once the vortex established over NE-Canada/Greenland.

The Pacific WTs actually changed first, opening the door for the TPV to establish up there, but once it does so, it can be very resistant to change/difficult to remove. It’s a self-reinforcing pattern in a number of ways.

[RentonHill]

9 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

We lost the GEFS. It might be time to cancel Weatherbell……

[Phil]

Actually running 1-2 degrees colder than forecast. Already within ~ 10 degrees of the wind chill record.  

[Gradient Keeper]

It has been awhile....

[RentonHill]

Number 13 is definitely going places at the end though.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS Day 1-10 500mb Height Anomaly

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

It was a joke playing on the boring comment from @LowerGarfield  

But I will say that when something is coming we usually see a distinct downward slope on the ensemble temp charts.   Obviously it starts getting more complicated at this time of year when the average temp is going up. 

That's kind of part of it too.. There is a distinct downward trend in temps away from climo with time, something you wouldn't expect without a pattern change. That, along with daily averages increasing now, makes it even more noteworthy. From my eye though it looks like dry NW flow/maritime, not an Arctic snap.

[BLI snowman]

24 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow wouldn't that be nice. I don't see a 2011 type situation developing. The early part of that month had a couple of mammoth arctic blasts into the middle of the country, and then the pattern eventually retrograded. 2018 maybe... But something needs to shake up this rudderless pattern we've been stuck in since really... Mid-November. 

Yeah, 2011 was a fairly well telegraphed longwave retrogression coupled with favorable ENSO forcing which finally popped up a SE Ridge after a stubborn December/January.

2018 was more about the dramatic SSW that happened in late January and completely annihilated the PV at that point, which was primo timing for us as it coupled with the Nina peaking and with the usual peak window for ENSO forcing in the back half of winter. That was actually a tremendous 500mb pattern, almost December 2008 like. We just didn't get any super deep arctic air with it as the real teeth of the PV split over into Eurasia.

As Jim has pointed out repeatedly, we have had an SSW this year, but it was a Slow Stratospheric Warming.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

That's kind of part of it too.. There is a distinct downward trend in temps away from climo with time, something you wouldn't expect without a pattern change. That, along with daily averages increasing now, makes it even more noteworthy. From my eye though it looks like dry NW flow/maritime, not an Arctic snap.

Agreed.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[BLI snowman]

18 minutes ago, Phil said:

Actually running 1-2 degrees colder than forecast. Already within ~ 10 degrees of the wind chill record.  

Disappointed that Jim Cantore isn't there right now.

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Disappointed that Jim Cantore isn't there right now.

Definitely. What a wimp.

18z NAM in 28 minutes

[Deweydog]

MODERATE RAIN

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEFS

[Gradient Keeper]

11:12 AM

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

12z GEFS

I mean it looks good, but at this point doesn't mean much. 

[Gradient Keeper]

12z ECMWF Day 1-10 500mb Height Anomaly

[Gradient Keeper]

12z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[jcmcgaffey]

Looking forward to a stormy day today. Currently have a gale warning for 45-55 mph winds. The system on the satellite has a two barrel look to it similar to the failed wind storm earlier this season. 

[RentonHill]

Day 11 EPS

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, RentonHill said:

Day 11 EPS

It's not BAD. 

[RentonHill]

12

[Deweydog]

Cut off madness cuntinues!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks great for CA and NV, and maybe that's not the worst thing in the world. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks great for CA and NV, and maybe that's not the worst thing in the world. 

I will tell myself that the wetter weather in the SW (and lots of mountain snow) will reduct the odds of a monstrous 4CH once we hit the warm season.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I will tell myself that the wetter weather in the SW (and lots of mountain snow) will reduct the odds of a monstrous 4CH once we hit the warm season.

It's possible. Though Tim will remind us that 2016-17 was very wet for California and that summer torched ridiculously. 

Part of me wonders if at some point the focus of this moves north and we end up having another very wet spring. 

Edited February 3, 2023 by SilverFallsAndrew

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It's possible. Though Tim will remind us that 2016-17 was very wet for California and that summer torched ridiculously. 

Part of me wonders if at some point the focus of this moves north and we end up having another very wet spring. 

Not feeling the wet spring thing this year.   At least not yet.  

[Slushy Inch]

Big improvement from 0z and could get even better.

[TT-SEA]

Even though the EPS is showing what looks like a cut-off pattern with systems going through the SW... the 00Z EPS was not really wet for CA and the 12Z run is looking about the same so far. 

 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Big improvement from 0z and could get even better.

I am not sure that one frame is indicative of something different... that is just part of a ULL cutting off over the SW on the 12Z EPS.   A couple days later it looks like this:

 

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Even though the EPS is showing what looks like a cut-off pattern with systems going through the SW... the 00Z EPS was not really wet for CA and the 12Z run is looking about the same so far. 

 

Here is the actual period with the trough over the southwest, it's more of a mountain snow maker than wet setup.

[Phishy Wx]

cool, dry

[ShawniganLake]

4 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Big improvement from 0z and could get even better.

It’s a progressive pattern without much amplification with the ridge offshore. Perhaps cool and showery. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It's possible. Though Tim will remind us that 2016-17 was very wet for California and that summer torched ridiculously. 

Part of me wonders if at some point the focus of this moves north and we end up having another very wet spring. 

Who’s that. Yeah like I said it would reduce the odds at best. The odds for a scorching summer are always high. A wet spring would be lovely. I’m always a fan of springs that start out relatively dry in early March (score some more freezes) and become gradually wetter April-June.