PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

I wanted purple. Weeklies will renew the hope

Looks great for the desert SW.

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

I wanted purple. Weeklies will renew the hope

I'll be gone 15th-21st, that basically guarantees that we get a snow storm. I guess I will be enjoying that Southwest skiing though.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

11 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

What are the 850s need for snow? 6c?

The Magic -8 Ball is where we do the best in onshore shower setups. North in the valley has more trouble tho as we saw in Dec, 2021. But offshore flow on 2-25-19 was marginal 850s and we had 20" of snow.

[Doinko]

15 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Burns ran a -4.0 Departure for January with a 33.4/11.6 spread. 

Not even close to their 23.3/-0.9 average in January 2017 or 29.1/3.3 from January 2013. 

The 4/-22 from 1/6/2017 is a real eye popper. Though not quite as impressive as the 4/-30 they put up on 12/8/2013. 

The 6/-25 they scored on 12/31/2010 stands out though as not many people besides Jesse remember that airmass, it also shows the power of deep snowcover in the Harney Basin, as that event was preceded by a significant snow event. 

Nov/Dec/Jan is the 4th coldest on record so far at Burns. Only behind 1992/1993, 1948/1949 and 1985/1986 so far. 5th place is 2016/2017, which is impressive considering the very warm November

[Slushy Inch]

8 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

The Magic -8 Ball is where we do the best in onshore shower setups.

Yeah, looking like it will mostly likely be highs in the low 40s and nighttime or morning wet snow for my area.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

14 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

The Magic -8 Ball is where we do the best in onshore shower setups. North in the valley has more trouble tho as we saw in Dec, 2021. But offshore flow on 2-25-19 was marginal 850s and we had 20" of snow.

-7˚C is my benchmark, but yeah, somewhere in that range.

[ShawniganLake]

19 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

I wanted purple. Weeklies will renew the hope

Feels like the weeklies have been basically showing cold for the last 4 months. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

A little step back on the 12z GEFS

So… a few cm for me, flurries for Seattle, and zilch for the Willamette Valley, just like the last time we had maps like that?

[Cascadia_Wx]

13 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Yeah, looking like it will mostly likely be highs in the low 40s and nighttime or morning wet snow for my area.

Good pattern for a slushy inch.

[RentonHill]

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

So… a few cm for me, flurries for Seattle, and zilch for the Willamette Valley, just like the last time we had maps like that?

At least we know that since its showing that now, its likely to be very different aka worse 

[Front Ranger]

38 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I'm old enough to remember when that place was called Showbiz Pizza in Texas before it was in Oregon.

You sure about that? I'm older than you and from a wee lad Chuckecheez was a thing in the PNW.

[Cascadia_Wx]

9 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

You sure about that? I'm older than you and from a wee lad Chuckecheez was a thing in the PNW.

Do you mean to tell me that Tiger might be embellishing???  

[RentonHill]

here are 5 day averages. will post daily ones when they come out. can see summer starts early at the end lol

[RentonHill]

They look good. Would be a bummer if we get squeezed in between two stacks of cold air and end up just chilly and damp. Oh well. 

[Prairiedog]

15 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I may have posted this yesterday, but the eastern side of Steens Mountain is incredible, this was from at least 30-40 miles away. It is just absolutely massive. 

The view of the mountain from the north is not as breathtaking in the summer, but from Crane yesterday, due to the stark relief caused by the snow cover it was jaw dropping, an absolutely massive mountain. 

Spent many days with middle school and hs kids birding in the summer over many years at the refuge then camp at Fish Lake on the Steens.  Got snowed on at 7K on August 12 one summer.  Truly remarkable spot especially from the top at 9,800'.  Man, this brings back so many good memories. 

[RentonHill]

Thy Wyrm tyrns towyrds Orygyn 

[ShawniganLake]

4 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

They look good. Would be a bummer if we get squeezed in between two stacks of cold air and end up just chilly and damp. Oh well. 

Would be odd to have cold to our north and south. Probably a result of 2 different ensemble clusters 

[ShawniganLake]

10 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

here are 5 day averages. will post daily ones when they come out. can see summer starts early at the end lol

 

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I'm old enough to remember when that place was called Showbiz Pizza in Texas before it was in Oregon.

yep, same. lol

[TT-SEA]

NB weather site got a new web camera that seems to stretch things out.   Mt. Si just doesn't look right on here.  

Anyways... spectacular day in the neighborhood. 

[SnarkyGoblin]

I know Phil mentioned this a couple of times, but Maine could see some all-time windchill records broken on Friday:

https://wapo.st/40qKgcD

[SilverFallsAndrew]

10 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Thy Wyrm tyrns towyrds Orygyn 

The final turn. 

[Phil]

5 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

saw that when I interned up there at the Observatory in the winter of 2000-01.  place is insane in winter.

 

I think they still do the winter internship program, you'd be a great candidate.  its was however unpaid when I did.  2 weeks on the mtn, 2 weeks off mtn at home in the valley.  rinse>repeat.  riding the snowcat up the auto road was fun and skiing back down the auto road at shift change was cool too

 

 

Lmao.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[Phishy Wx]

Mt Washington NH forecast

 

 

[Phil]

3 hours ago, MossMan said:

Tim and Phil were not onboard yesterday…Will they be today??? Only the EPS will know for sure…Stay tuned! 

The only thing I’m “on board” for is a massive eastern blowtorch during mid/late month. I wager we reach mid/upper 70s here at some point.  

2 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Now that’s an actual wind reversal. Lol.

[Phishy Wx]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Lmao.

 

you should do it, i'm serious

[Cascadia_Wx]

20 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Thy Wyrm tyrns towyrds Orygyn 

Beautiful 

[Cascadia_Wx]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This is their February 1989.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

The only thing I’m “on board” for is a massive eastern blowtorch during mid/late month. I wager we reach mid/upper 70s here at some point.  

Now that’s an actual wind reversal. Lol.

Could it be the final warming event in late February or is that too early?

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Could it be the final warming event in late February or is that too early?

That’s late enough that it could end up being the final warming. And the MJO likely would activate if it’s a dynamic (SSW-type) final warming, which could trigger the WWB necessary to produce a downwelling OKW and transition to +ENSO.

If the SSW/dynamic FW fails to materialize and we end up with a static FW instead (slow decay of PV thru spring driven by seasonal radiative processes) then the odds of a major MJO/WWB decrease and -ENSO theme is likely to persist longer. But that would also reduce odds of arctic air for the PNW region in the meantime, so  

[Anti Marine Layer]

Phil saw his shadow 

[Anti Marine Layer]

15 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Beautiful 

It's not anomalous to expect anomalies. 

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Phil saw his shadow 

I did. But it was filtered sunshine so it was blurry, as is the outlook for the remainder of winter.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Chris said:

The canyons through the mountains are amazing.  I'm surprised this hasn't been named a national monument, or even a national park.  The Steens are one of the more scenic areas in an already scenic state.

President Clinton was considering designating it a National Monument before he left office in 2000, but there was fierce opposition from local interests, in the end a compromise was worked out. Nearly a million acres protected from mining and geothermal development, 174,000 acres of designated wilderness, and the first "cow free" wilderness in the United States. 

[RentonHill]

27 minutes ago, Phil said:

Lmao.

 

I read that in the ol weather channel automated voice. Should be a good time. 

[RentonHill]

18z is running!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS was decent, really gets on the active storm train idea by the end of February. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

45 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I remember the night in college that I forgot my toque on the way into the computer lab. An arctic front swept in and dropped wind chills to the -50’s. Fun stuff walking back to my dorm. Never forgot my toque again!

[Cascadia_Wx]

46 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

President Clinton was considering designating it a National Monument before he left office in 2000, but there was fierce opposition from local interests, in the end a compromise was worked out. Nearly a million acres protected from mining and geothermal development, 174,000 acres of designated wilderness, and the first "cow free" wilderness in the United States. 

Took the words right out of my mouth Andrew.