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PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

Anti Marine Layer

By Anti Marine Layer
in West of the Rockies

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Posted by The Ms. Anthrop,

Really, really lovely cumulonimbus action tonight! I just happened to have my drone in the car and got some solid shots of DT Seattle/Lake Washington/Mercer Island/Bellevue looking north from Skyway. Alas, the focal length of the lens doesn't do the vertical height justice and my WB was off rendering it into semi-gross HDR territory, but still... fun looking weather! It was quite windy- I was flying right at 390 ft and the drone was giving me all sorts of warnings about sustained winds/gusts. 

insta pin. glorious cloud pics!

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Posted by Gradient Keeper,

A most incredible snow storm. At times the snowfall rates have been as heavy or slightly heavier than January 2017. Temp 27.5, Dewpoint: 27.1 with gusty east wind and very heavy snow continuing. I'm at 11 1/2" now! UNBELIEVABLE!!!! This pic does no justice at all.

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

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Posted by ajreich,

NBM is quite an interesting product! Their weighting algorithm is moderately complex and dynamic, though does has some drawbacks as we saw yesterday. For those who don't know, NBM is an attempt by NOAA to create a super probabilistic forecast model that ingests output from all the models above and outputs forecast guidance for local offices that help them to gauge the relative odds of particular weather outcomes. The 'special sauce' is the post-processing, normalization and weighting that they d
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Posted by BLI snowman,

18 at PDX. First low in the teens there since January 2017.
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Gradient Keeper
Gradient Keeper

A most incredible snow storm. At times the snowfall rates have been as heavy or slightly heavier than January 2017. Temp 27.5, Dewpoint: 27.1 with gusty east wind and very heavy snow continuing. I'm a

OysterPrintout
OysterPrintout

WHAT an event. Huge overperformance for us at this location. Measured 5.5" of snow. Just incredible.   

SilverFallsAndrew
SilverFallsAndrew

Saw this posted on social media. 

Posted Images

MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I have zero idea what this model is used for 

4826F431-5122-48B5-8F0F-8495D80E4C18.png

Wow all the models now show crap for my area. Yay. I’m going to rip down my Christmas lights and shove them in the garbage can I guess. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

NAM looks good

F044D9B9-CDB5-4DCF-957B-19E995ECCE42.png

The NAM reasonably shows a couple inches in my area... the GFS shows 30+ inches.   Why can't the GFS have at least the same terrain resolution as the other US weather model?    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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LowerGarfield Grand Master

LowerGarfield

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, DRG said:

For those in the Portland area that are cautiously hopeful, it's a lock I promise.  Why?  Because I'm on vacation and will be forced to watch the snow pile up via my security cameras.  I hope you all appreciate my sacrifice...

But there's at least an outside chance that I'll see snow in the air where we're at (15 miles inland from Crescent City, CA) so never say never!

Are you located in the Gasquet area or are you in Oregon?

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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Poulsbo Snowman Proficient

Poulsbo Snowman

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Phil said:

Plenty of counter examples to this. With E-QBO descending mid/late year, I think cold neutral is the “coldest” possible ENSO outcome.

At least initially. Guidance hints at SSW/NAM reversal (which hasn’t even happened yet) downwelling slowly and beginning to project onto the tropospheric circulation by the end of the month, which may render more arctic air available in the middle latitudes.

The most significant cold anomalies may once again occur during the spring months for much of North America.

That's true.  If we can have summer in October, there's no reason to believe we can't have winter in April.

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LowerGarfield Grand Master

LowerGarfield

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, MWG said:

Getting more excited! They up to Warning for 1500 and up and Advisory for + 500.

image.thumb.png.03e82b99dd16e05e6170f7e09db96e6f.png

I'm on mobile so remind me of your elevation? It would be really something if Ashland gets snow since MFR gets some chances that they don't, right?

Any other southern Oregon posters here i.e. south of TWL and west of the Cascades?

Non event here but I'm really excited for those who don't get a lot of chances. Even Brookings or Gold Beach have some chance for Flakes. Usually south of Newport or Florence almost never see snow at the beach whereas Clatsop county usually has a chance every year or so.

How much snow  this week for @TigerWoodsLibido?

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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MWG Mentor

MWG

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

I'm on mobile so remind me of your elevation? It would be really something if Ashland gets snow since MFR gets some chances that they don't, right?

Any other southern Oregon posters here i.e. south of TWL and west of the Cascades?

Non event here but I'm really excited for those who don't get a lot of chances. Even Brookings or Gold Beach have some chance for Flakes. Usually south of Newport or Florence almost never see snow at the beach whereas Clatsop county usually has a chance every year or so.

How much snow  this week for @TigerWoodsLibido?

I'm at 1400ish! Ashland definitely will get snow.

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LowerGarfield Grand Master

LowerGarfield

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Ashland is higher elevation and wetter than Medford. Are there setups in which Med gets snow and Ashland doesn't?

I learned something new today. Thank you for sharing. I wasn't sure how Mt Ashland impacts the area.

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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