PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Rip Portland 

Locked it in 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Rip Portland 

Well have fun y’all.

[WeatherGeek2022]

gonna become so watered down it's not even funny just because it's late february.

 

need to maintain pessimism to not jinx our odds

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

a lil magic way out there

Just imagine that after all of the goodies that come before it!

[RentonHill]

holy jose

 

[Requiem]

Not too optimistic about what's coming. Hopefully it'll spread the wealth but if the last six years have anything to say about it...

[rsktkr]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

gonna become so watered down it's not even funny just because it's late february.

Exactly.

By the time it gets here it will be a little cooler than normal with a little snow for those that always get snow with marginal events and that's about it.

I have seen this movie a thousand times. 

The good news is....spring training is here!!!

[JW8]

NWS is onboard. Mostly...

[AlTahoe]

GFS is showing 90 straight hours of snow up here and then like a 18 hour break and then the strongest cold front of them all coming in on the backend. Gonna be interesting. 

[snow_wizard]

15 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Something pretty good next week is my guess…but as we know these things tend to get tweaked a bit as we go forward. Could be like 2011…or maybe ends up being closer to something like 2018 which was still good just not on the insane level. 

I'll have to pull up the maps for 2011 this evening.  See if we might have a shot at beating it.

[TT-SEA]

16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Incredible strat warming event.  We had the first wave, and now it's warming more.

Is the stratosphere even there now or did it burn up?      I mean... how hot can get it?     A displaced PV is a displaced PV.   That is about all that can happen.   Ironically... the models are showing the polar PV is actually still intact in 10 days.

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, JW8 said:

NWS is onboard. Mostly...

Those CPC maps are pretty insane looking!

[T-Town]

42 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I suspect we’ll see things hedge toward more of an overwater trajectory. Could be better for snowfall, but not so much for cold.

I was mostly joking but that sounds good to me. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Is the stratosphere even there now or did it burn up?      I mean... how hot can get it?     A displaced PV is a displaced PV.   That is about all that can happen.   Ironically... the models are showing the polar PV is actually still intact in 10 days.

I'm a little bit fuzzy on that.  Phil says we are going to get the polar wind reversal on this round.  I guess the PV isn't always bad if it's in the right place.

[Kolk1604]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'll have to pull up the maps for 2011 this evening.  See if we might have a shot at beating it.

2010 we had that epic November. 2012 we had the ice storm. 

Wasn't 2011 that big bust in January? 

 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I'm a little bit fuzzy on that.  Phil says we are going to get the polar wind reversal on this round.  I guess the PV isn't always bad if it's in the right place.

It seems like the models are backing off a little on that again.    And in the Ag Weather update they mentioned that its probably not going to be a significant event that floods the US with arctic air... but that doesn't mean we won't get some up here.

[snow_wizard]

Cold right through the run on the 18z.  It moderates, but nights are still freezing and days well below normal.

[fubario]

14 minutes ago, rsktkr said:

Exactly.

By the time it gets here it will be a little cooler than normal with a little snow for those that always get snow with marginal events and that's about it.

I have seen this movie a thousand times. 

The good news is....spring training is here!!!

Go Dodgers!

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

2010 we had that epic November. 2012 we had the ice storm. 

Wasn't 2011 that big bust in January? 

 

Feb 2011.

[Omegaraptor]

15 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Not too optimistic about what's coming. Hopefully it'll spread the wealth but if the last six years have anything to say about it...

I'm optimistic but at the same time I'm not model riding right now. Ends in disappointment much more often than not.

[fubario]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Those CPC maps are pretty insane looking!

Yes...kinda...
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...Northwesterly flow aloft
will prevail into the beginning of next week. Sunday evening into
Monday sees yet another system dipping down into the area, this one
looking a bit more organized and better chances for widespread
precip. Then, we`ll see a deep upper-level low dive over the PNW
Tuesday night into Wednesday. We`ll not only see continued
widespread precipitation but a decent shot of cold air could begin
to filter into the region as this feature taps in to an airmass of
polar origin. It`s still a ways out but snow levels also appear to
be lower during this period.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

It seems like the models are backing off a little on that again.    And in the Ag Weather update they mentioned that its probably not going to be a significant event that floods the US with arctic air... but that doesn't mean we won't get some up here.

Yeah....I noticed the ECMWF only pushes the cold air down into the northern third or half of OR.

[AlTahoe]

GFS keeps getting wilder. 113" for SLT now. I hope it doesn't happen and we end up with reasonable 2-4' instead. 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

I'm optimistic but at the same time I'm not model riding right now. Ends in disappointment much more often than not.

You guys are sure jaded down there.  I guess the success we've had up here the last couple of winters helps make it seem a bit easier.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, AlTahoe said:

GFS keeps getting wilder. 113" for SLT now. I hope it doesn't happen and we end up with reasonable 2-4' instead. 

Too much of anything can get to be not fun.  That looks ridiculous.  Given the situation it might actually happen though.

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It seems like the models are backing off a little on that again.    And in the Ag Weather update they mentioned that its probably not going to be a significant event that floods the US with arctic air... but that doesn't mean we won't get some up here.

Yeah, the WMD-level thumping doesn’t seem as thumpy as it did a few days ago. Not sure how much it really matters at this point though.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, AlTahoe said:

GFS keeps getting wilder. 113" for SLT now. I hope it doesn't happen and we end up with reasonable 2-4' instead. 

We spend so much time on ridiculous GFS snowfall maps that pretty much never verify.   When has the GFS ever had the pattern exactly right through 384 hours?   Not to mention its poor resolution and over-estimating snow totals even in the short term.

Verbatim... the GFS on Monday showed that I would get 24-28 inches of snow yesterday in my area.    We got 2 inches.   It showed Snoqualmie Pass would get 36 inches and they actually got 15 inches.   That was just errors at 24 hours out... now multiply that times 16 more days.    

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Yeah, the WMD-level thumping doesn’t seem as thumpy as it did a few days ago. Not sure how much it really matters at this point though.

It still looks pretty thumpy though.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

We spend so much time on ridiculous GFS snowfall maps that pretty much never verify.   When has the GFS ever had the pattern exactly right through 384 hours?   Not to mention its poor resolution and over-estimating snow totals even in the short term.

Verbatim... the GFS on Monday showed that I would get 24-28 inches of snow yesterday in my area.    We got 2 inches.   It showed Snoqualmie Pass would get 36 inches and they actually got 15 inches.   That was just errors at 24 hours out... now multiply that times 16 more days.    

Your probably right.  On the other hand a good stream of cold moist air will be ramming into the Sierras for a sustained period.

[WeatherGeek2022]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We spend so much time on ridiculous GFS snowfall maps that pretty much never verify.   When has the GFS ever had the pattern exactly right through 384 hours?   Not to mention its poor resolution and over-estimating snow totals even in the short term.

Verbatim... the GFS on Monday showed that I would get 24-28 inches of snow yesterday in my area.    We got 2 inches.   It showed Snoqualmie Pass would get 36 inches and they actually got 15 inches.   That was just errors at 24 hours out... now multiply that times 16 more days.    

GFS thrives to entertain 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

35 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Something pretty good next week is my guess…but as we know these things tend to get tweaked a bit as we go forward. Could be like 2011…or maybe ends up being closer to something like 2018 which was still good just not on the insane level. 

I'm with Jim on this, major stuff possible next week and a top 5 in 100 years isn't crazy if it pans out like is shown. Also this is not 284 hrs away. For the end of February that trough Is really something. 

Edited February 15, 2023 by MR.SNOWMIZER

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I'm with Jim on this, major stuff possible next week and a top 5 in 100 years isn't crazy if it pans out like is shown. Also this is not 284 hrs away.

Yeah... its starts on Tuesday which is just 6 days away.    I think a significant event is almost guaranteed at this point.    Just a question of how much snow and how cold.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Your probably right.  On the other hand a good stream of cold moist air will be ramming into the Sierras for a sustained period.

The snow maps were dead on in 2019 here. Hard to forget that.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Chris said:

Even if the PV did die an early death this season, it would take several weeks to work its way to the surface.  I don't see any impact on next week's snow and cold.

I'm actually not sure if the delayed reaction theory is correct or not.  IMO we have had a big SSW and it's going to get cold.  Might be a connection.  This could be a function of the MJO wave also.

[Weiner Warrior]

I don't think the models are taking into account global warming. I'm expecting 2 inches of rain and 40 degrees.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The snow maps were dead on in 2019 here. Hard to forget that.

My wish for this coming event is a snowstorm just like the second one in Feb 2019.  That was a very enjoyable event for many places.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Weiner Warrior said:

I don't think the models are taking into account global warming. I'm expecting 2 inches of rain and 40 degrees.

We need a double weenie emoji for this.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... its starts on Tuesday which is just 6 days away.    I think a significant event is almost guaranteed at this point.    Just a question of how much snow and how cold.

Yep, look at it like this. A trough is definitely coming and even if the cold backs off some it still will be cold and probably snowy at a few hundred feet and away from the sound. 

[snow_wizard]

Looks like 44/27 here today.  

[Requiem]

31 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

I'm optimistic but at the same time I'm not model riding right now. Ends in disappointment much more often than not.

Within like two days I'll be happy to model ride... but right now it's looking very 2011 or 2012 lite, neither of which were very good years for us.