PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[yellowstone]

I’m actually on the east coast this week and when I was leaving I was so bummed knowing I was gonna miss the only major event this year for central sound. Guess I didn’t need to worry.  Weather station at my place reads 36.5 (up from 32.9 3 hours ago).  My cam showed maybe a little over an inch of wet snow a couple hours ago but it’s melting quick now. Temp hasn’t been below freezing at my place since Saturday morning.  
 

Interested to see if that band sets up this afternoon as the Euro showed but overall this winter has been a theme of coming very very close but a lot of disappointment and potential wasted. Lots of days with snow in the air but never more than 2 inches on the ground in my neighborhood. December 20th was by far the best event, but not enough to save the winter. Hard to grade but maybe B-.  

[Dave]

This is an interesting update from the NWS AFD:

.UPDATE...

-- Changed Discussion --

Aviation and marine sections have been updated. Will update remainder of discussion shortly, but we are very busy upgrading some winter highlights across the southern tier of our forecast area. Convective shower bands are moving onshore, lowering the snow level to near sea level as evidenced in latest ODOT webcam imagery in Florence. We will issue a Winter Storm Warning for our central Oregon coast zone, and upgrading advisories to warnings for the central/south Willamette Valley and north Oregon coast. The snow threat for the Lane County lowlands will likely wane around midday, with the heating of the day and increasing southerly component to the low-level flow. Therefore the Lane Co coast/Eugene area`s warnings expire at noon. CAMs show the most persistent banding occurring over the Salem/Lincoln City area, as a frontal zone pivots over the area. The convective bands will likely pivot northeastward, but latest convection allowing models (CAMs) have tended to keep the heaviest precip south of Portland metro. Will need to keep a close eye on this. Will update further once latest warnings and advisories have been sent. Weagle

-- End Changed Discussion --

[Dave]

[Dave]

Currently, light snow at 34 degrees. Snow isn't sticking yet, but I'm sure it will the moment it gets a bit heavier.

WSW issued:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Portland OR
430 AM PST Tue Feb 28 2023

ORZ008-282030-
/O.UPG.KPQR.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-230228T1800Z/
/O.EXB.KPQR.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-230228T2100Z/
South Willamette Valley-
Including the cities of Eugene, Springfield, Corvallis, Albany,
and Lebanon
430 AM PST Tue Feb 28 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 5
  inches, heaviest above 500 feet.

* WHERE...South Willamette Valley.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM PST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will be heavy and wet, posing risks
  for those shoveling the snow. The heavy, wet snow may also bring
  down tree limbs and power lines, potentially leading to isolated
  power outages.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like about 1/4 to 1/2 inch here... still a little snow falling but it also appears that the southerly wind just punched through.  

06Z ECMWF is a little farther north and weaker with the deformation band this afternoon compared to its 00Z run but still makes it down to Seattle late in the day.     

Total snow for the rest of the day... excludes snow that has already fallen.  

[TT-SEA]

Based on the radar it appears that @ShawniganLake is getting hit hard and @VancouverIslandSouth is in on the action now as well as that deformation band has rotated to the SE.    

And that is all heading towards Randy.  

[MossMan]

Really coming down now! Still 32.5 with 32.0 DP. 

[Dave]

Just like that, heavy sticking snow. Sweet!

[MikeInEverett]

Was expecting to see the radar look a bit more lit up this morning. Looks like less than an inch here but everything is white and pretty. 

[TT-SEA]

South wind is roaring so strong now that I can hear it inside the house... low is passing to the north.  

Here is the current position of the low per the ECMWF.

[snow maniac]

No new snow last night, what a bummer. 

[Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone]

Woke up to heavy snow absolutely dumping and radar looks amazing. WSW issued as well! I might get 5-6" lets go!

[MossMan]

18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

South wind is roaring so strong now that I can hear it inside the house... low is passing to the north.  

Here is the current position of the low per the ECMWF.

Wouldn’t that position normally turn me to rain shortly once it moves though? 

Edited February 28, 2023 by MossMan

[MossMan]

Marysville SD is 2hrs late and Lakewood SD  (where we used to live) is closed so that area must be getting smacked as well. Arlington and Stanwood SD have not reported yet. 

[Cold Snap]

Well this event might be toast south of Everett.

[MossMan]

Puking snow now! Wow! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Snowing at Florence, North Bend, Corvallis, Grants Pass. 
 

Not much here overnight. Maybe an inch. Looks like it’s snowing now though. 

Edited February 28, 2023 by SilverFallsAndrew

[MikeInEverett]

Measured half an inch of slop. Glad I didn’t buy into the 2-5” models had me getting, just didn’t seem realistic.

[MossMan]

Just now, MillCreekMike said:

Measured half an inch of slop. Glad I didn’t buy into the 2-5” models had me getting, just didn’t seem realistic.

Are you getting anything right now? 

[MossMan]

Wind and heavy snow. Crazy morning! 

[MikeInEverett]

16 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Are you getting anything right now? 

Was sprinkling and 34F when I left home. The goodies moved up north unfortunately. 

[ShawniganLake]

46 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Based on the radar it appears that @ShawniganLake is getting hit hard and @VancouverIslandSouth is in on the action now as well as that deformation band has rotated to the SE.    

And that is all heading towards Randy.  

I’d estimate 5” since midnight. Around 12” total.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like Grants Pass has at least a couple inches. Roseburg snow covered too. Hopefully Medford can get in on it. 

[MikeInEverett]

Randy I’ll bet you see at least another couple inches with the way that band seems to be setting up over central/northern Snohomish County. 

[Cold Snap]

Well at least @MossManis getting hammered with snow so I’ll just have to pretend I’m living in the moment with him when I see the pics/vids!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like snow covering the ground in Albany and Eugene now. Snow falling on cams around Salem now.

[TT-SEA]

43 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Wouldn’t that position normally turn me to rain shortly once it moves though? 

Not that strong... its just an area of low pressure and not a well defined system.    It's actually in the process of filling and sort of dies in place up there.   Best scenario for you because you got in on a deformation zone but there is no price to pay on back side. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Noticing the late week into the weekend period trending colder and snowier, especially on the euro. 

[weatherweenie]

Bustasaurus here. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Major dumpage in Albany. 

[smerfylicious]

My grass has a nice fine coating. Woo. I feel like such a debbie downer right now. Oh well, there's always next La Nina.

I'm just happy Randy scored. I'm also happy for Tiger, finally getting a sub-freezing high and a few snow drops in his lap. Good for Oregon and Cali as well, glad everyone south of I-520 scored. Someone's gotta lose out every year, and it's alright if it's me this time.

[MossMan]

Took this about 15min ago when I was getting the snow off the carports. And it’s so nice having internet during a snowstorm without having to take my modified light changing pole with a towel zip tied to it and getting on the ladder to beat the snow off the HughsNet dish. Good job Starlink…Just fix your crappy cords and you will be excellent! 

[Doinko]

Winter storm warnings for the central/southern Willamette Valley

[Snownerd3000]

Looking outside and getting snow skunked.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Major dumpage in Albany. 

Such a strange set up.   Low goes to north and the Seattle area gets screwed with a south wind but the central WV is still getting heavy snow at the same time as areas to the north of Seattle.  

[Doinko]

 

[ShawniganLake]

Power is out here.  The price you pay for a foot of 33F snow. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

@Mid Valley Duck looks good down your way. 

[MWG]

Finally roads are snow covered! It was all bared like an hour ago.

[snow_wizard]

Epic model fail for most places.  What a joke.