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PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale


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Ensemble means and operational models are in excellent agreement on anther very cold trough carving out over the NW early in week two.  We are on a roll!

1678017600-X8Y3vbebmAo.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Fwiw there are a grand total of three or so people on this site that I think are a mixture of noncontributory and nonsensically belligerent and none of them are currently online 🙏

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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49 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Most of the stations out here are in the upper 30s and low 40s.   Up to 40 now in North Bend.

I always feel like the stations in your area must be super over exposed. It’s always like 5-10F warmer than anywhere else north of Medford. Later this afternoon we ll be hearing about how you are approaching the mid 50s. 

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew
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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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12 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

The circled blue area is a snow hole and not enhanced snow, right? I can't tell my light blue from my light blue. 

Can anyone explain why? Trying to figure out how bad ny commute through there might be and how early I may need to wake up (or leave work).

Screenshot_20230225_113339.jpg

That color scheme is kind of dumb.  It's a hole BTW...I think.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Ensemble means and operational models are in excellent agreement on anther very cold trough carving out over the NW early in week two.  We are on a roll!

1678017600-X8Y3vbebmAo.png

I feel like the models are just latching on to this. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, joelgombiner said:

Pretty unique 925 mb temp pattern right now, at least from my limited experience. SW winds only bring in slightly warmer air, still likely cold enough for snow. 

image.png.083f8d849f03360ab3290ea5a72e4113.png

By late tomorrow morning we are under an extremely chilly upper level airmass again. Probably won’t get above 35 up here tomorrow. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I always feel like the stations in your area must be super over exposed. It’s always like 5-10F warmer than anywhere else north of Medford. Later this afternoon we ll be hearing about how you are approaching the mid 50s. 

Nah... lots of low to mid 40s out here now.   Sunshine and a light east wind and late February sun angle.     Its real.   And it will be snowing here in a few hours.  

sea 2-25.jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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18 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

The circled blue area is a snow hole and not enhanced snow, right? I can't tell my light blue from my light blue. 

Can anyone explain why? Trying to figure out how bad ny commute through there might be and how early I may need to wake up (or leave work).

Screenshot_20230225_113339.jpg

That's Sammamish. Almost at sea level

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With tonight I'm still questioning how relatively dry the ECMWF is.  From my experience when the surface low is north of Hoquiam or so the Central Sound doesn't get that much drying effect, because there is no really significant east wind.  We'll just have to wait and see.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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SEA jumped 5 degrees in the last hour as well... up to 39.    More sun and a little offshore flow making it 2-3 degrees warmer near the foothills.     

COD-GOES-West-subregional-Pac_NW.02.20230225.195617-over=map-bars=none.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Weiner Warrior said:

That's Sammamish. Almost at sea level

That takes in the Sam. Plateau also.  Kind of suspect.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I feel like the models are just latching on to this. 

This is just so 1971 like.  I hope the rest of the year stays on that track.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, Weiner Warrior said:

That's Sammamish. Almost at sea level

Not a high elevation, but Sammamish is on a plateau, right? I know I have to go up a hill to get there?? Just surprised there is more snow in the Kent/Auburn/Tukwila valley than on the plateau. But I'm not as familiar with the area to know. Haven't lived out there to see the day to day. 

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Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Making 1,000 posts a day to keep up a shallow online facade sounds like a hell of a lot more work tbh.

There is no facade.   There is literally nothing on here that I make up.   My obsession is tracking weather... always has been.    I am an open book.    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

Not a high elevation, but Sammamish is on a plateau, right? I know I have to go up a hill to get there?? Just surprised there is more snow in the Kent/Auburn/Tukwila valley than on the plateau. But I'm not as familiar with the area to know. Haven't lived out there to see the day to day. 

Yes... Sammamish is on a plateau above Issaquah and almost always gets more snow up there than along I-90 in Issaquah.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, Weiner Warrior said:

Why do the fights always start on the lead up to a snow event? Boredom waiting for precip?

Chris wants no maps.   😀

And there is no fighting.    Just the usual nitpicking from the same two people.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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9 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Where did u find this?

Ha, I asked the same question! https://meteor.geol.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kbfi&nam=on&nam_mos=on&namm=on&gfs_mos=on&gfs=on&gfsm_mos=on&gfsm=on&nws=on&rap=on&obs=on&nam4km=on&con=on&archive=on&year=2023&month=02&day=25&hour=05&ratio=11&max_t=on&cobb=on&compaction=on&mean_mt=on&max_mt=on&mean=on

Just added a Google Doc with useful weather links to my signature, including this site. Hope to keep adding to it and that others find it useful. 

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My thoughts on Puget Sound Region Snow total forecast for late this evening until early tomorrow morning.

(Tacoma and Surroundings) Pierce County. Trace/Dusting-2.5 inches. Except Puyallup, Sumner and Orting 0-0.50 inches where usually less.

(Seattle, Everett and Surroundings) King and Snohomish Counties(Sea Level-199ft) and within 3 miles of Puget Sound Waters: Trace/Dusting-3 inches. And (1 inch- 4.5 inches) hills above 200 ft and areas 3+ miles from Puget Sound Waters.

(Olympia and Surroundings) Thurston County: 1-5 inches. Bigger amounts further from the Sound and above 200ft.

Keep in mind I'm covering for elevations under 600ft. And less than 30 miles inland from the Puget Sound Waters. 

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Eastside Tacoma/Salishan, WA. Elv 263ft

Family home in Spanaway, WA. Elv 413ft

☥𓂀✡️

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