PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Cold Snap said:

Pepto! For (most) Everyone!

You could cut 50% off that and it’d still be solid.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Definitely coming down a little harder now. But that’s relative: still quite light. 35.4˚F.

[thisisacreativename]

 

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

[TT-SEA]

18Z ECMWF for tonight into tomorrow morning.

[Randyc321]

I haven't been posting lately, but keeping up.  Been keeping busy with doctors.  I recently found out I have fibromyalgia after lots of appts.  At least it's an answer.

Thanks for all the maps and commentary folks.  

Saturday night snow!  Here we go!

[Snownerd3000]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

You could cut 50% off that and it’d still be solid.

Sorta hard to believe it’s true, but a good chunk of it is modelled to fall tonight, and the models have been very consistent about it.

[TT-SEA]

The next 24-hour period from Sunday 10 a.m. through Monday 10 a.m.   

 

[Snownerd3000]

I'm getting unreasonably excited for this next week. 

[WildrootParable]

15 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

The NWS clearly reads the forum because they posted that map an hour after I suggested they should. You’re welcome. (It wouldn’t surprise me if some of them actually did lurk on here, we know Jaya used to post on here pretty frequently which was awesome)

It wouldn't surprise me, either, since I've noticed that the Forecast Discussions often read a little...defensive. Like they're arguing with someone we can't see. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

18Z Euro. It has been very insistent that I get 14" tonight. We shall see.

[lowlandsnow]

Temps seems a bit warm 

[SouthHillFrosty]

[TT-SEA]

And the best event this week for the Seattle area is probably Monday night into Tuesday morning.     Temps are marginal though in the mid 30s all night per the ECMWF.    

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Temps seems a bit warm 

We posted the same thing simultaneously.   And I agree that temps might be an issue.

[Anti Marine Layer]

On the way to 250.

[joelgombiner]

23 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

The NWS clearly reads the forum because they posted that map an hour after I suggested they should. You’re welcome. (It wouldn’t surprise me if some of them actually did lurk on here, we know Jaya used to post on here pretty frequently which was awesome)

Congrats! You're now the lead forecaster. 

[TT-SEA]

Also shows the c-zone parked along the King/Snohomish line Tuesday event... that feature is on every run now.   This one shows a little less snow though.  

[SouthHillFrosty]

Totals 

[MossMan]

36 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I have 250 gallons of diesel and 150 gallons of treated ethanol free gas. I'm ready. I always have this on hand though.

Puts my stock to shame lol! 

[TT-SEA]

Here is a better view of the c-zone expanding it out to 12 hours from noon through midnight on Tuesday.   That covers the entire time frame as the precip is basically done by midnight.  

[joelgombiner]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Puts my stock to shame lol! 

Wow, puts my stocks to shame. 

[MWG]

Don't know if this was posted but wow!

 

 

[MossMan]

I sure hope the NAM or WRF verifies, the Euro looks like complete crap for my area. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Totals 

Isn't this wayyy less than the 12z?

[Omegaraptor]

52 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This is typical for late in the season.  The "warmth" is kind of artificial today.  If it were December it wouldn't have cracked 40 anywhere.

You've heard of fake cold... but have you heard of fake warmth?

[Requiem]

16 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Wow-- this is great!

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, PuyallupChris said:

I was going to chime in similarly before I saw your post.

I’m also Puyallup (obviously, I suppose) and am sitting at 45/46, and looks like Auburn is also 45. I know we’re in the swamp but it seems so unlikely we’ll drop from 46 to snow in just a few hours, when forecasts are saying it will *warm up* as the front arrives.

This does not smell right to me. At all.

Posted about this last night...

[smerfylicious]

Got a long way temp wise before snow is in the ballpark here...sitting at 45...

[Meatyorologist]

17 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

It's going to be pretty surreal tomorrow afternoon knowing there is an impending snowstorm while simultaneously warming into the 40s, with no change in sfc level airmass between peak heating around 3pm and the onset of precipitation around 10pm.

Pretty much the only driver behind tomorrow night's snow is the residual dry air in the lower 5000' causing evaporative cooling. Actual temperatures would be far too warm otherwise.

bump @PuyallupChris

[Phishy Wx]

3 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

You've heard of fake cold... but have you heard of fake warmth?

Apparently there is no real wx in the PNW.  its all 'Fake'

[Meatyorologist]

It's gonna snow tonight.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

You've heard of fake cold... but have you heard of fake warmth?

We sort of have fake cold right now.    It normally would not snow tonight with the current upper level temps.

[TacomaWx]

44/21 today…down to 42 now. 

[MossMan]

38 with a DP of 24. 

[WildrootParable]

I don't really know what I'm talking about, here, but that enormous blob of green on the UW Radar is looking pretty ominous. Is that heading this way? 

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, WildrootParable said:

I don't really know what I'm talking about, here, but that enormous blob of green on the UW Radar is looking pretty ominous. Is that heading this way? 

It is, but the air at the surface is very dry. It will take time for the echoes to actually translate to snow down at the surface one they get over us…and will fall as virga, evaporating before it hits the ground. Won’t snow for most places for another 3-4 hours. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

36 dewpoint 26. Primed and ready. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, WildrootParable said:

I don't really know what I'm talking about, here, but that enormous blob of green on the UW Radar is looking pretty ominous. Is that heading this way? 

Eventually yes... that is the main front.