PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[Deweydog]

8 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

The NAM is on drugs. This is what it predicts the temps to be at 7PM. It is already several degrees colder than that here. It is already below freezing. Joke of a model. 

Actually 38 in Longview.

[WhoNeedsAC]

8 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

Kind of amazing how the temperatures where warm today. It was around 40 in my area but it's now 34 degrees and the sun hasn't been down for an hour. As I'm writing this, the temperature dropped to 33 degrees. The dewpoint is 24. If and when the moisture comes, I know the temperature will fall, I believe we will see snow. How much, I don't know. All we can do is watch what happens now. 

Clear skies and low dewpoints will do that, something we don't often see on the drippy side of the Cascades. High of 42 at my place and it's already down to 30 with a DP of 18.

[Perturbed Member]

Just now, FroYoBro said:

Well it is 37 at pdx. You are going to do better than other Portland areas tonight. 

I was comparing it for other places in the region. It estimates 35F for Scappoose, it has already been down to 30F there for sometime. It is 28-32F in the far western end of the metro and NAM has it about 33-34 there. 

The NAM also shows 36-37 for the Gresham and happy Valley area. In reality those places are all about 30-34F right now. 

[SunAndSnow]

Already 32.8, temp dropped dramatically after sunset. DP 26. Doesn’t look like we should expect any precipitation until 11-12pm.

[thickhog]

6 minutes ago, Doinko said:

RGEM is pretty great for west PDX and especially Clark County

2-3 more inches would be awesome

[Cold Snap]

Anyone have any idea why the Wunderground radar is doing this? Is the Seattle radar down or something?

[Gummy]

1 minute ago, Cold Snap said:

Anyone have any idea why the Wunderground radar is doing this? Is the Seattle radar down or something?

Chris just can't catch a break!

[Cascadia_Wx]

Ended up with a 42/16 day here, pretty top notch stuff. Still have 5-6” of snow on the ground in shaded areas as well. Our road is shaded most of the day and is still an icy rutted mess. Would love an inch or two refresher tonight.

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

I was comparing it for other places in the region. It estimates 35F for Scappoose, it has already been down to 30F there for sometime. It is 28-32F in the far western end of the metro and NAM has it about 33-34 there. 

The NAM also shows 36-37 for the Gresham and happy Valley area. In reality those places are all about 30-34F right now. 

In defense of the NAM (cough, cough) early evening during radiational cooling can be pretty erratic. Hard to expect a model to catch every nuance of that, especially with a system moving in.

[Doinko]

[Perturbed Member]

29 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Down to 30 already 

You're probably gonna do quite well with this. Seems like the southerlies will have a harder time breaking into your area than most. Probably a shot at 2-4 inches there?

[Timmy]

Just now, Perturbed Member said:

You're probably gonna do quite well with this. Seems like the southerlies will have a harder time breaking into your area than most. Probably a shot at 2-4 inches there?

Usually is the case here, models haven’t been too generous at the higher resolution, but we are quite blocked from the south wind here

[SilverFallsAndrew]

22 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Yeah NAM isn’t looking too great for the south sound.

Looks insane for W Oregon and SW WA

[GHweatherChris]

36-25 spread now.

[Perturbed Member]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

In defense of the NAM (cough, cough) early evening during radiational cooling can be pretty erratic. Hard to expect a model to catch every nuance of that, especially with a system moving in.

Yeah, that's fair. The temps are changing pretty rapidly at that time. 

What are you thoughts on tonight's event and tomorrow night?

This looks nice for your Clark county folks

[MossMan]

Down to 32.9

[lowlandsnow]

Anyone getting any snow?

[KingstonWX]

Temp was stagnant at 40.9 for quite a while but now it's dropping and humidity is rising. Hopefully they meet in the sweet spot. 

[HuskyMaestro]

8 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Anyone have any idea why the Wunderground radar is doing this? Is the Seattle radar down or something?

TWC app was doing this too. 

Someone turned the Fife snowdome into a rectangle and expanded it across the region. 

[MikeInEverett]

Sitting at a mild 40 here still awaiting the arrival of precip. Not a good time for the radar to be acting up..

[MWG]

They upgraded to WSW for +1500' for Monday to Tuesday.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Currently 38.1F with a dew point of 27

[lowlandsnow]

WRF looks really good for Portland and Seattle

[Ken in Wood Village]

I saw someone else posted a picture of a radar picture with snow on it. I normally just try to interpret what the regular radar is saying. When I see these strong echoes, I believe the rate is strong but snow has a better cross section than rain. I believe this is snow Inland. It would be the same thing for sleet. 

[Cloud]

It’s 41 here, in fact a large part of the Sound Is still in the upper 30s to near 40. However, DPs are in the low 20s so not too worried. 

[Deweydog]

5 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Yeah, that's fair. The temps are changing pretty rapidly at that time. 

What are you thoughts on tonight's event and tomorrow night?

This looks nice for your Clark county folks

Haven’t looked too terribly close at either but tonight should be good for at least a couple inches with a little more in the north county, tucked away from the southerlies.

Tomorrow night has higher potential but more bust potential too. Definitely a shot at someone seeing something significant with light offshore gradients and some strong deformation if the GFS is to be believed.

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

I saw someone else posted a picture of a radar picture with snow on it. I normally just try to interpret what the regular radar is saying. When I see these strong echoes, I believe the rate is strong but snow has a better cross section than rain. I believe this is snow Inland. It would be the same thing for sleet. 

Definitely cold enough here for snow. Down to 33 with a DP of 26, and it looks like this down into the 20s at Hillsboro

[SnowWillarrive]

Temp has dropped to 34.8 here with a DP in mid 20s. I’m liking what I see for temps in East King County. Feeling pretty good about that. 

[Weiner Warrior]

Currently 39 degrees with DP of 21 in Bellevue Eastgate area.

[smerfylicious]

Currently 37.8, DP 23.5. Just patiently waiting...oh the waiting is killing me. So much so that I drove to work to do a 4 hour shift, so I can drive home in this stuff at 11

[MWG]

Temps already down to 44F where I'm at. 

[MossMan]

Temp spike up to 33.7. DP 24

No snow yet. 

[Cold Snap]

Currently 40 with a DP of 23 back at home. Looking good for snow IMBY tonight. Even though I had a high of 46 the evaporative cooling is going to put in some work!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Might be some sleet at onset with that warm mid layer. 

[The Winter Warlock]

35.8 and a DP of 29.0 here in Cov-town. Waiting anxiously.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

28 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Anyone have any idea why the Wunderground radar is doing this? Is the Seattle radar down or something?

I have it on not such good authority that the NWS is intentionally blocking segments of the radar in reaction to our discussion earlier today about them.  It's retaliation.

[Perturbed Member]

Through tomorrow 10 AM

 

Through 4 AM Tuesday

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Closing in on my first inch. Streets completely white. 32.4˚F.

[WeatheringLoyalHeights]

1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

Through tomorrow 10 AM

 

Through 4 AM Tuesday

Could you (or someone else) post the same for Washington?

[SnowWillarrive]

4 minutes ago, WeatheringLoyalHeights said:

Could you (or someone else) post the same for Washington?

 

keep in mind this is the 12z run