PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[MossMan]

8 minutes ago, Weiner Warrior said:

All that yellow is heading to my house.

Nope, doesn’t look like it. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

BOOM

[KingstonWX]

[smerfylicious]

5 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

Sharpie gate

Stop what you're doing and drive into the hinterlands. Everyone west of I-5, you're already dead. I'm sorry to say it, but call your grandparents because there's no way for you to escape the coming deluge.

[lowlandsnow]

How much snow do you have now @GHweatherChris?

[Gummy]

4 minutes ago, KingstonWX said:

NWS not on board with anything impactful Mon/Tues.

[SnowWillarrive]

NWS completely downplaying any significant snowfall this week. 

[WildrootParable]

Just started here, very light flurries. It's coming. 

[Perturbed Member]

1 minute ago, SnowWillarrive said:

NWS completely downplaying any significant snowfall this week. 

That's good, no NWS curse. They will bust. 

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

4 minutes ago, Gummy said:

NWS not on board with anything impactful Mon/Tues.

They know that Western WA folks will forgive snow overperformance as long as they have some possibilities and call for slush/little accumulations. But if they call for snow and it doesn't happen, pitchforks will be out. It's psychologically understandable, even if it doesn't feel like it is always the most accurate option.

[WildrootParable]

Just now, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

They know that Western WA folks will forgive snow overperformance as long as they have some possibilities and call for slush/little accumulations. But if they call for snow and it doesn't happen, pitchforks will be out. It's psychologically understandable, even if it doesn't feel like it is always the most accurate option.

The thing I still don't understand is the safety aspect of it. Why wouldn't you rather get yelled at for being overly cautious if the reverse could cause real damage? We all know that snow has the potential to cripple the region, especially if it's a surprise. I just don't understand the "embarassment" aspect of it when safety is at stake. I don't think I'll ever get it. 

[snow_wizard]

34 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Wow this is beautiful. 

Wow!

[MossMan]

17 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

BOOM

 

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

NWS completely downplaying any significant snowfall this week. 

I don't get that at all.  A lot of model runs are showing it being a big deal.  The atmosphere is certainly cold enough at that time as well.

[BurienSnowGlobe]

Very heavy rain here in Ocean Shores. I don’t know you Chris but you are about to get slammed. 

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

3 minutes ago, WildrootParable said:

The thing I still don't understand is the safety aspect of it. Why wouldn't you rather get yelled at for being overly cautious if the reverse could cause real damage? We all know that snow has the potential to cripple the region, especially if it's a surprise. I just don't understand the "embarassment" aspect of it when safety is at stake. I don't think I'll ever get it. 

I don't think it's embarrassment. I think it is actually them not wanting to be called the-boy-who-cried-wolf. In more marginal set ups, they would rather update during an event than have people discount their warnings because "those forecasters are never right." I do think that it has some merit. Too many warnings or even advisories or special statements that bust would mean that the general public would have no faith when it was a certainty of dangerous conditions. And that could be even more dangerous. This is looking to be potentially messy but shouldn't freeze up unlike Portland this week. It should all melt off pretty quickly and on a Sunday morning there won't be as much traffic or any school transportation issues. 

[SnowySeeker50]

The DP has started to rise and temperature to fall. Currently 38 degrees, dp 25

[MikeInEverett]

I do wish these events wouldn’t be in the middle of the night I had to work at 5am today, even though I took a power nap it’s still gonna be rough tonight. Thankfully I’m off tomorrow.

[RayRay]

2+ inches at Neah Bay it appears

 

[North_County]

It's not very often I get snow that falls straight down.

[KingstonWX]

39 and 64% humidity here. Very very light snow flurries starting to fall. 

[GHweatherChris]

25 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

How much snow do you have now @GHweatherChris?

3/4" now

[WeatheringLoyalHeights]

2 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

I don't think it's embarrassment. I think it is actually them not wanting to be called the-boy-who-cried-wolf. In more marginal set ups, they would rather update during an event than have people discount their warnings because "those forecasters are never right." I do think that it has some merit. Too many warnings or even advisories or special statements that bust would mean that the general public would have no faith when it was a certainty of dangerous conditions. And that could be even more dangerous. This is looking to be potentially messy but shouldn't freeze up unlike Portland this week. It should all melt off pretty quickly and on a Sunday morning there won't be as much traffic or any school transportation issues. 

Yeah I was thinking if this system were coming through on a work/school night they might be a bit more cautious in warnings/amounts.  None of the forecasting apps seem to be picking up anything notable for Mon/Tues in the Sound though, whereas this system has predicted 1-3 inches for a few days now.

[snow_wizard]

The GEM shows the Seattle area getting thumped with 5 or 6 inches in a short period of time Tuesday morning.

[thickhog]

3 minutes ago, North_County said:

It's not very often I get snow that falls straight down.

Thing of beauty. 

[WildrootParable]

1 minute ago, KingstonWX said:

39 and 64% humidity here. Very very light snow flurries starting to fall. 

Good to know other parts of Kitsap are seeing it. We're averaging about one flake per minute down here, but hey, it's a start. 

[Cold Snap]

Back home now. Still 40 degrees but the DP has dropped from 23 to 20 now. Makes me wonder if I’ll see 30 degree snow instead of 32.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, WeatheringLoyalHeights said:

Yeah I was thinking if this system were coming through on a work/school night they might be a bit more cautious in warnings/amounts.  None of the forecasting apps seem to be picking up anything notable for Mon/Tues in the Sound though, whereas this system has predicted 1-3 inches for a few days now.

Apps?  Are you serious?

[KingstonWX]

1 minute ago, WildrootParable said:

Good to know other parts of Kitsap are seeing it. We're averaging about one flake per minute down here, but hey, it's a start. 

You are way better positioned that I am, so good luck to ya!

[TacomaWx]

Bremerton airport reporting light rain interesting. Precip getting a bit closer. 

[BurienSnowGlobe]

Heavvvyyy rain at Ocean Shores and it’s not the Modelos talking

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Very light snow.  38 degrees, dewpoint 21.  I should be good to go for a while.

[snow_wizard]

I'm wondering if the NWS is just kicking the can down the road about Tuesday morning until after we're done with the event tonight.  They still have time to wait on pulling the trigger on that one.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, BurienSnowGlobe said:

Heavvvyyy rain at Ocean Shores and it’s not the Modelos talking

Good moisture feed coming.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Bremerton airport reporting light rain interesting. Precip getting a bit closer. 

That's the only rain I've heard of tonight other than right on the coast.

[SnowWillarrive]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Good moisture feed coming.

I think this will over perform out in east king. 

[Winterdog]

As the models hinted, It’s looking like some of us here in the Lake Stevens / Granite Falls area may be shadowed from a full dose of snow.  My 1.3 inches promised earlier is looking less likely.  Currently 35 DP30.

[FrozenBites]

Definitely.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Everything is white, coming down at a decent clip now.  Temp 33/dew point 32

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

That's the only rain I've heard of tonight other than right on the coast.

Not too worried about it, wouldn’t be terribly surprised if it starts out as rain very briefly then changes over as the precip rate picks up.