PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[The Cats Meow]

5 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

When I was a kid it would never be a real snowstorm to me unless I couldn’t see a single blade of grass in my yard. I still kind of follow that rule to this day, but with the yards of other people.

hopefully i report in tomorrow with some snow.  

just hit 46 here

[ShawniganLake]

7 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

When I was a kid it would never be a real snowstorm to me unless I couldn’t see a single blade of grass in my yard. I still kind of follow that rule to this day, but with the yards of other people.

That’s why you mow very short late in the fall. No ugly grass showing. 

[PuyallupChris]

1 minute ago, Hour364Please said:

hopefully i report in tomorrow with some snow.  

just hit 46 here

I was going to chime in similarly before I saw your post.

I’m also Puyallup (obviously, I suppose) and am sitting at 45/46, and looks like Auburn is also 45. I know we’re in the swamp but it seems so unlikely we’ll drop from 46 to snow in just a few hours, when forecasts are saying it will *warm up* as the front arrives.

This does not smell right to me. At all.

[MikeInEverett]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

That’s why you mow very short late in the fall. No ugly grass showing. 

Noted for when I own a house with a yard!!

[Snownerd3000]

35 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Actual photo of Jimmy Page when he heard you like Foreigner. I’m not judging, just the messenger.  

 

[The Cats Meow]

4 minutes ago, PuyallupChris said:

I was going to chime in similarly before I saw your post.

I’m also Puyallup (obviously, I suppose) and am sitting at 45/46, and looks like Auburn is also 45. I know we’re in the swamp but it seems so unlikely we’ll drop from 46 to snow in just a few hours, when forecasts are saying it will *warm up* as the front arrives.

This does not smell right to me. At all.

Trust the process.  LOL!

Dew points are low.  Hopefully precipitation rates are high and we get some wet bulb action.

This is going to be wild if it indeed does snow.  I had hoped the cloud cover would come in a bit later to allow for some cooling.

Jim the Wizard says it's going to snow and he knows stuff.

[snow_wizard]

24 minutes ago, SnowySeeker50 said:

High of 46 today. Currently 44 degrees dp 20.

Mid 40s sure doesn't feel as warm as it sounds though.  Still many degrees below normal.

[TT-SEA]

So I guess we are just going to ignore the stingy ICON?    

This covers Sunday - Tuesday.  

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

So I guess we are just going to ignore the stingy ICON?    

This covers Sunday - Tuesday.  

Good thing it’s the ICON. It’s should be called ICFS. I can’t forecast snow.

[BLI snowman]

Temps/dewpoints seem to be at least staying on the lowish side of guidance so far here. Just 41 at PDX with the dewpoint at 21. Looking good for some quick metro-wide accumulations tonight, I'd say.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

46 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My god, I am thinking I may need to run to stock on gas for the generator. This is the real deal. 

Yup, I've lived through patterns like this before here and it really might get crazy here the next 72hrs. I can already here the branches breaking from the snow.  I just got the gas for gen. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

44 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Pepto! For (most) Everyone!

26 inches here. 

[PuyallupChris]

7 minutes ago, Hour364Please said:

Trust the process.  LOL!

Dew points are low.  Hopefully precipitation rates are high and we get some wet bulb action.

This is going to be wild if it indeed does snow.  I had hoped the cloud cover would come in a bit later to allow for some cooling.

Jim the Wizard says it's going to snow and he knows stuff.

Trying! Dew point of 19, current temp 46… pretty wild stuff. I’m trying to trust the process but am not used to seeing so much reliance on a huge amount of evaporative cooling.

Feels much warmer now than when I took my kids outside at 10:30 AM.

[snow_wizard]

12 minutes ago, PuyallupChris said:

I was going to chime in similarly before I saw your post.

I’m also Puyallup (obviously, I suppose) and am sitting at 45/46, and looks like Auburn is also 45. I know we’re in the swamp but it seems so unlikely we’ll drop from 46 to snow in just a few hours, when forecasts are saying it will *warm up* as the front arrives.

This does not smell right to me. At all.

The models showed it getting into the 40s today and it works out fine.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Good thing it’s the ICON. It’s should be called ICFS. I can’t forecast snow.

I think he was implying that since even the ICON shows snow it's probably going to be good.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I think he was implying that since even the ICON shows snow it's probably going to be good.

Really?

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, PuyallupChris said:

Trying! Dew point of 19, current temp 46… pretty wild stuff. I’m trying to trust the process but am not used to seeing so much reliance on a huge amount of evaporative cooling.

Feels much warmer now than when I took my kids outside at 10:3 AM.

This is typical for late in the season.  The "warmth" is kind of artificial today.  If it were December it wouldn't have cracked 40 anywhere.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Really?

Yes.   It takes an Act of Congress to get the ICON to show snow.

[The Cats Meow]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

So I guess we are just going to ignore the stingy ICON?    

This covers Sunday - Tuesday.  

You have been in perfect form the last week or so.  Hey guys look at this rain map.  Hey guys it's going to warm up in ten days.  Hey guys look at this stingy snow map.

I don't even think you realize it.

Once past Feb 1 you lust for warm summer days and cool nights.

But hey, you are a staff member so you can troll away.

[snow_wizard]

22 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Too low!

[MossMan]

53 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My god, I am thinking I may need to run to stock on gas for the generator. This is the real deal. 

You are always living on the edge…Always under 10% phone battery, and now no gas for the generator??? My former boss at a former job back in the day that was a major prepper would be very disappointed in you!!! 

[TacomaWx]

They finally put one out! Most of the models show us getting a little more than an inch here…but we will see how the night goes. Would be very surprised if we saw more than 1.5”. 

[Snownerd3000]

6 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

26 inches here. 

You have a great location for the upslope enhancement 

[ajreich]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

So I guess we are just going to ignore the stingy ICON?    

This covers Sunday - Tuesday.  

It’s not a particularly skillful model, nor used by the NWS for forecasting. Why wouldn’t we?

[Snownerd3000]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

They finally put one out! Most of the models show us getting a little more than an inch here…but we will see how the night goes. Would be very surprised if we saw more than 1.5”. 

Can't wait to see this bust

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yes.   It takes an Act of Congress to get the ICON to show snow.

I should have known!

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This is typical for late in the season.  The "warmth" is kind of artificial today.  If it were December it wouldn't have cracked 40 anywhere.

Artificially caused by bland upper levels with a 925mb temp of +2C and and 850mb temp of -1C (which is basically normal) and the February 25th sun angle? 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

You are always living on the edge…Always under 10% phone battery, and now no gas for the generator??? My former boss at a former job back in the day that was a major prepper would be very disappointed in you!!! 

I have 250 gallons of diesel and 150 gallons of treated ethanol free gas. I'm ready. I always have this on hand though.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Crazy! Warmer today than I was expecting.  38 here! Still think most places near sound or below 800ft will see rain for a bit. The evaporative cooling has its work cut out. 

If there’s enough dry air aloft it shouldn’t be a problem. We were 38/23 this AM and all precip was frozen. Graupel first then snow. No liquid.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Hour364Please said:

You have been in perfect form the last week or so.  Hey guys look at this rain map.  Hey guys it's going to warm up in ten days.  Hey guys look at this stingy snow map.

I don't even think you realize it.

Once past Feb 1 you lust for warm summer days and cool nights.

But hey, you are a staff member so you can troll away.

Jon? 

Glad to see you are back! 

And yes... my point of the ICON map was that the ICON almost never shows snow.    It was meant to be a positive post about snowfall chances the next 3 days.  Hence the wink.   And also a tease of Andrew who always does the "so we are just going to ignore..." thing.    Looks like I failed. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

6 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Can't wait to see this bust

It will bust in some places in not having enough snow. Any place more than about 400ft tonight will really get hit good.

[Phil]

Take the arguing to the banter thread.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

If there’s enough dry air aloft it shouldn’t be a problem. We were 38/23 this AM and all precip was frozen. Graupel first then snow. No liquid.

You went from 81 degrees to snow falling in 36 hours?   Wow!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

If there’s enough dry air aloft it shouldn’t be a problem. We were 38/23 this AM and all precip was frozen. Graupel first then snow. No liquid.

I was just talking about today, this evening will be a lock.

[thisisacreativename]

Curious to see how I'll fare here being away from the water with a bit of elevation. Currently 45 though.

[Phishy Wx]

just a sequence of meh-y nickel and dimers in these parts

blah

[smerfylicious]

Gimme dat 3-4" pls thank you

[Phil]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

You went from 81 degrees to snow falling in 36 hours?   Wow!

Yeah I had my expectations set to zero when I awoke to blazing sunshine and upper 30s. But somehow it didn’t matter.

[MWG]

Afternoon discussion so long that I can't even dare to paste it here lol Basically a lot of chances for low land snow so again  https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MFR&issuedby=MFR&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 

[MikeInEverett]

The NWS clearly reads the forum because they posted that map an hour after I suggested they should. You’re welcome. (It wouldn’t surprise me if some of them actually did lurk on here, we know Jaya used to post on here pretty frequently which was awesome)