TT-SEA Posted September 10, 2018 Report Share Posted September 10, 2018 Can't wait for some posters to claim its been a wet month. It might well end up that way up here... lots of rain ahead. We will make that claim if its reality in our area up here. We don't live in Oregon. Weather is different in different places! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted September 10, 2018 Report Share Posted September 10, 2018 I called the clouds once PDX finally hit 80 and told them they were good to move in. Got to hold onto that warmth tonight and get a toasty head start for tomorrow.Were you encircled by candles while doing this? Weird. Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted September 10, 2018 Author Report Share Posted September 10, 2018 Looks like SLE broke their streak.Looks like the weather station here didn't register any rainfall last night. Wow. 15 miles from Salem and we have nada so far. Looks like a lot of the south valley missed out too. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted September 10, 2018 Report Share Posted September 10, 2018 Found this interesting ploom of moisture being funneled between the storms towards our coast.Olivia also moving in on the islands 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 10, 2018 Report Share Posted September 10, 2018 47 here this morning. Almost considered closing the bedroom windows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted September 10, 2018 Author Report Share Posted September 10, 2018 47 here this morning. Almost considered closing the bedroom windows. Nah, I had my U of O fraternity window open when it was like 25F outside during the Arctic Blast of...Jan 2007?? Details are fuzzy for a handful of reasons. Needless to say it was nice to eat ice cream in the room without it melting. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 10, 2018 Report Share Posted September 10, 2018 Nah, I had my U of O fraternity window open when it was like 25F outside during the Arctic Blast of...Jan 2007?? Details are fuzzy for a handful of reasons. Needless to say it was nice to eat ice cream in the room without it melting. Having the window open at 25 - that's hardcore! I'll keep a window open down to about 40. But if it is a damp 40 then I shut it before then. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 10, 2018 Report Share Posted September 10, 2018 Looks like the convergence zone will be active this week in Snohomish and Skagit Counties. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 10, 2018 Report Share Posted September 10, 2018 Having the window open at 25 - that's hardcore! I'll keep a window open down to about 40. But if it is a damp 40 then I shut it before then. I used to do in home care for an elderly gentleman. He always slept with his window open and a fan on, this did not change during December 2008. Except he didn't want his pipes to freeze, so he made sure to run the heat full blast. Wasn't good for his electric bill. I convinced him to close his window every night before I left during that cold snap, but in the morning it would be open. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted September 10, 2018 Report Share Posted September 10, 2018 Looks like the convergence zone will be active this week in Snohomish and Skagit Counties. Going to be very wet...even though everyone south of Olympia will not believe me and will tell me my trees are all dead. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted September 10, 2018 Report Share Posted September 10, 2018 12z GFS stalls Florence off cape Hatteras, 902mb at hour 150. Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 10, 2018 Report Share Posted September 10, 2018 12z GFS stalls Florence off cape Hatteras, 902mb at hour 150. Stalls right over the Gulf Stream - not good. Won't be anything left of the outer banks in that area if that happens. Bottoms at 900 mb before running inland late Sunday into early Monday. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted September 10, 2018 Report Share Posted September 10, 2018 Stalls right over the Gulf Stream - not good. Won't be anything left of the outer banks in that area if that happens. Bottoms at 900 mb before running inland late Sunday into early Monday. What is the mechanism responsible for driving these wild scenarios being depicted? The ridge to the north? Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 10, 2018 Report Share Posted September 10, 2018 0.13" this morning! 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 10, 2018 Report Share Posted September 10, 2018 What is the mechanism responsible for driving these wild scenarios being depicted? The ridge to the north? Yeah largely. Kind of what happened in the models with Sandy. Stupid GFS stalled out at 180. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted September 10, 2018 Author Report Share Posted September 10, 2018 0.13" this morning! Congrats man!! Still nada here. Let's see how much longer we can go. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted September 10, 2018 Report Share Posted September 10, 2018 Wow, Florence is now a category 4 hurricane again. Eric Holthaus@EricHolthaus“NHC Update, 11am: Hurricane #Florence —a tropical storm just 24 hrs ago—is now a major hurricane. A stunning burst of rapid intensification has created one of the biggest meteorological threats to the East Coast in recorded history. All signs point to landfall in NC as a Cat 4. Hurricane #Florence is already a monster—and will continue getting stronger, traversing some of the warmest waters in the Atlantic Ocean until landfall in North Carolina on Thursday. Florence is on track to become the strongest East Coast landfall (N of FL) in recorded history. After its landfall, our best weather models continue to show an abject flooding catastrophe for North Carolina and Virginia. As much as 48 inches of rain could fall. For perspective, that's almost *double* the previous all-time record for an East Coast hurricane. Unfathomable.“ https://mobile.twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/1039170101357043712 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted September 10, 2018 Report Share Posted September 10, 2018 Ryan Maue | weathermodels.comVerified account @RyanMaue 5m5 minutes agoMoreWeather models initialized at 12z perhaps missed the burst of rapid intensification -- or will too slowly ramp up to the observed Category 4 pressures (943-947 mb)The tracks from the reliable models e.g. UKMET and ECMWF remain centered on a landfall in the Carolinas … Ryan Maue | weathermodels.comVerified account @RyanMaue 1h1 hour agoMoreAnother GFS model fail -- hyper-intensity due to lack of ocean coupling and poor "microphysics" causes garbage hurricane forecasts.This afternoon's forecast is a "toss it" already.The much more reliable UKMET and European model forecasts arrive in the next 2-hours. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 10, 2018 Report Share Posted September 10, 2018 Wow, Florence is now a category 4 hurricane again. Eric Holthaus@EricHolthaus“NHC Update, 11am: Hurricane #Florence —a tropical storm just 24 hrs ago—is now a major hurricane. A stunning burst of rapid intensification has created one of the biggest meteorological threats to the East Coast in recorded history. All signs point to landfall in NC as a Cat 4. Hurricane #Florence is already a monster—and will continue getting stronger, traversing some of the warmest waters in the Atlantic Ocean until landfall in North Carolina on Thursday. Florence is on track to become the strongest East Coast landfall (N of FL) in recorded history. After its landfall, our best weather models continue to show an abject flooding catastrophe for North Carolina and Virginia. As much as 48 inches of rain could fall. For perspective, that's almost *double* the previous all-time record for an East Coast hurricane. Unfathomable.“ https://mobile.twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/1039170101357043712 That intensification is incredible. On the other side of the continent... GFS gives western King County a good bit of rain through Sunday morning. CMC is pretty close. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted September 10, 2018 Report Share Posted September 10, 2018 That intensification is incredible. On the other side of the continent... GFS gives western King County a good bit of rain through Sunday morning. CMC is pretty close. Yep...will probably bring the jetski home this week...it’s over. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted September 10, 2018 Report Share Posted September 10, 2018 That intensification is incredible. On the other side of the continent... GFS gives western King County a good bit of rain through Sunday morning. CMC is pretty close. I'm glad we're finally going to get some good rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 10, 2018 Report Share Posted September 10, 2018 I'm glad we're finally going to get some good rain. I really doubt NW Oregon is going to get that much rain this week. Hope I am wrong. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 10, 2018 Report Share Posted September 10, 2018 Going to be very wet...even though everyone south of Olympia will not believe me and will tell me my trees are all dead.Amazing how your area continues to get near normal rainfall when everywhere else on the west side is drier than normal. If the GFS verified thru day 16 here. We would still be below average rainfall for September with a few days left. And good try. But nobody said your trees are dead. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 10, 2018 Report Share Posted September 10, 2018 12Z ECMWF goes crazy with the system on Friday. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted September 10, 2018 Author Report Share Posted September 10, 2018 12Z ECMWF goes crazy with the system on Friday. Maps pls for both states if there's meaningful precip in the WV. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 10, 2018 Report Share Posted September 10, 2018 A Cat 4 or 5 landfall still isn't at all likely with climo. Carolinas haven't even had a Cat 3 since 1996.True, but climo might not be useful in highly anomalous situations like this. The SSTs/OHC are near record levels right now, and shear is near record lows for any cyclone path this far north, under the exceptionally powerful ridge. So does weighing climo actually help or hurt? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 10, 2018 Report Share Posted September 10, 2018 Maps pls for both states if there's meaningful precip in the WV. On phone... wet for everyone. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted September 10, 2018 Report Share Posted September 10, 2018 On phone... wet for everyone. how much for Jesse’s maple tree in his front yard? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 10, 2018 Report Share Posted September 10, 2018 how much for Jesse’s maple tree in his front yard?Umadbro? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 10, 2018 Report Share Posted September 10, 2018 Umadbro?Sports! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 10, 2018 Report Share Posted September 10, 2018 Sports!Rain! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 10, 2018 Report Share Posted September 10, 2018 The ECMWF and UKMET (and FV3-GFS) are right on top of one another with the track..all between Wilmington and Cape Fear as a Category 4 storm. As modeled, today and tomorrow are the best days for folks in coastal NC to prepare for impact..conditions start going downhill on Wednesday as winds shift to the ENE and seas build, with tropical storm conditions arriving early Thursday, and hurricane conditions arriving late Thursday. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 10, 2018 Report Share Posted September 10, 2018 Pretty thrilled with these recent model developments. Hopefully the GFS will get on board with the weekend system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted September 10, 2018 Report Share Posted September 10, 2018 Umadbro? what ever happened to that guy? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted September 10, 2018 Report Share Posted September 10, 2018 I really doubt NW Oregon is going to get that much rain this week. Hope I am wrong.The 12z EURO came in wetter. Here's rainfall through Saturday night at 8pm. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 10, 2018 Report Share Posted September 10, 2018 what ever happens to that guy?Stays with that guy? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 10, 2018 Report Share Posted September 10, 2018 12Z ECMWF goes crazy with the system on Friday.Pretty impressive looking trough for September. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 10, 2018 Report Share Posted September 10, 2018 Pretty impressive looking trough for September.Operational GFS not on board but its ensembles are split. Maybe 60% leaning toward the Euro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted September 10, 2018 Author Report Share Posted September 10, 2018 A shower!!! It's raining!!! Streak is broken!!! 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 10, 2018 Report Share Posted September 10, 2018 A shower!!! It's raining!!! Streak is broken!!!Nice! Great day all around for rain lovers. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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