October 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Perturbed Member]

Just about 0.30 in of precip for the day, drizzle all day and occasionally light rain. Gonna enjoy the cool wet weather while it lasts. Hoping the upcoming ridge is very short lived.

 

0.83 in of rain for the month so far.

[Tyler Mode]

I forgot to post...the rain Friday night made for a soaking wet game, but great pictures.

[TT-SEA]

Surprisingly good suppprt for the 00Z ECMWF on the EPS. Actually ridgy through day 15.

 

Seems really unlikely just based on climo... but 1986 has been on the analog list many times in the last week and we had a 23-day dry spell in my area that October.

[Guest daniel1]

Surprisingly good suppprt for the 00Z ECMWF on the EPS. Actually ridgy through day 15.

 

Seems really unlikely just based on climo... but 1986 has been on the analog list many times in the last week and we had a 23-day dry spell in my area that October.

Post the day 15 image?

[BLI snowman]

Median or mean? They average 4-5 inches a year just like Monmouth and Corvallis.

 

Median, since 0-1" winters are pretty common there.

[TT-SEA]

Post the day 15 image?

Day 15...

 

 

[Guest daniel1]

Day 15...

 

 

Thanks.

[Farmboy]

[TT-SEA]

Happy Thanksgiving!  

[Jesse]

[TT-SEA]

To this point last year... there was just over 2 inches of rain for September and early October in my area.    There was only 11 days with rain in that 38-day period (Sept 1 - Oct 8).     Then the flood gates opened in the middle of October.  

 

This year... we have had rain on 26 days which is more than double the number of days in that same period.   And we have had more than 4 times as much rain (9 inches vs 2 inches).   

 

Just based on this and not even looking at the models... I would expect some sort of dry period coming up.  

[luvssnow_spokane]

Surprisingly good suppprt for the 00Z ECMWF on the EPS. Actually ridgy through day 15.

 

Seems really unlikely just based on climo... but 1986 has been on the analog list many times in the last week and we had a 23-day dry spell in my area that October.

The good news is I hear that the Pinot Noir from that year was excellent!  I wonder if there is a correlation? Just trying to connect the dots as I am hoping to serve some good pinot for Thanksgiving along with a side of arctic front.

[Jesse]

To this point last year... there was just over 2 inches of rain for September and early October in my area. There was only 11 days with rain in that 38-day period (Sept 1 - Oct 8). Then the flood gates opened in the middle of October.

 

This year... we have had rain on 26 days which is more than double the number of days in that same period. And we have had more than 4 times as much rain (9 inches vs 2 inches).

 

Just based on this and not even looking at the models... I would expect some sort of dry period coming up.

Based on rainfall stats for the other 80% of the region since late-April, and not even looking at the models, I would expect some sort of extended wet period coming up.

[TT-SEA]

Based on rainfall stats for the other 80% of the region since late-April, and not even looking at the models, I would expect some sort of extended wet period coming up.

 

 

That does not match up with the normal ebb and flow here.    We will see which one is right.    I also said that July and August were unlikely to be wetter than normal based on what had happened here up until the 4th of July.     

 

At least a 7-10 day dry period now seems very likely here based on the last 40 days which have been very wet.   Its not always wet here.   

[Deweydog]

Conjecture fight!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

To this point last year... there was just over 2 inches of rain for September and early October in my area. There was only 11 days with rain in that 38-day period (Sept 1 - Oct 8). Then the flood gates opened in the middle of October.

 

This year... we have had rain on 26 days which is more than double the number of days in that same period. And we have had more than 4 times as much rain (9 inches vs 2 inches).

 

Just based on this and not even looking at the models... I would expect some sort of dry period coming up.

Plenty of places in the west valley with less than an inch since June.

[TT-SEA]

Plenty of places in the west valley with less than an inch since June.

 

 

Well aware.

[Jesse]

Conjecture fight!

Pointing out some of the flaws in his logic. Will probably leave it there.

[TT-SEA]

Pointing out some of the flaws in his logic. Will probably leave it there.

 

 

Well aware of the issues... and yet it seems to work so you might want to pay attention.     When we are due for a dry period up here... it usually comes and it is dry down there at the same time.

 

We will see what happens.    

[ShawniganLake]

Well aware of the issues... and yet it seems to work so you might want to pay attention. When we are due for a dry period up here... it usually comes and it is dry down there at the same time.

 

We will see what happens.

A 7+ day dry spell seems like a good bet at this point, based on the models. Or are you suggesting something more significant?

[Jesse]

A 7+ day dry spell seems like a good bet at this point, based on the models. Or are you suggesting something more significant?

I think he is going for at least 23.

[MossMan]

Happy Thanksgiving!

Feels like Thanksgiving outside! Happy Thanksgiving to our northern forum friends!

[TT-SEA]

A 7+ day dry spell seems like a good bet at this point, based on the models. Or are you suggesting something more significant?

 

 

Not sure.    Just would not be surprised if its more than 7 days.  

[ShawniganLake]

Feels like Thanksgiving outside! Happy Thanksgiving to our northern forum friends!

Light rain continues, though it did let up overnight. 0.1” so far this morning.

[Deweydog]

Ugh. 12z says it stays dry until it turns wet again.

[TT-SEA]

Ugh. 12z says it stays dry until it turns wet again.

 

 

Nice 9 day dry spell.     

[Timmy]

Ugh. 12z says it stays dry until it turns wet again.

30 years ago that dry spell would have been cold and wet probably.

[BLI snowman]

Not sure.    Just would not be surprised if its more than 7 days.  

 

After a record wet January, early February monsoon, historic flood in early April, record cloudy May and late June, and biblically wet September 1 to present, it seems only fair.

 

Oh, and 2014-17 at SEA.

[TT-SEA]

After a record wet January, early February monsoon, historic flood in early April, record cloudy May and late June, and biblically wet September 1 to present, it seems only fair.

 

Oh, and 2014-17 at SEA.

Hyperbole!

 

So the next week will be wet then? Good to know.

[Farmboy]

As a bonafide climate refugee, I think you would be in a better position to churn out something really sappy. Maybe a reflection on the horrors of climate change driven rainfall rates on the upper Wynoochee.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hopefully at some point wet weather develops so we can end all this nonsense. 

[Deweydog]

Just about half way there...

[Front Ranger]

That does not match up with the normal ebb and flow here. We will see which one is right. I also said that July and August were unlikely to be wetter than normal based on what had happened here up until the 4th of July.

 

At least a 7-10 day dry period now seems very likely here based on the last 40 days which have been very wet. Its not always wet here.

I recall you expecting a wet August.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I recall you expecting a wet August.

 

[TT-SEA]

Hopefully at some point wet weather develops so we can end all this nonsense. 

 

That happens in virtually every year by late October... no mystery or suspense.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That happens in virtually every year by late October... no mystery or suspense.  

 

Once we cannot continuing arguing about whether or not there is a drought I wonder what other cross you will take up to bare.

[TT-SEA]

I recall you expecting a wet August.

 

 

I really did... but that was after being persuaded that the regional rainfall situation would dictate a wet August.     Locally... a dry July and August seemed likely.  And that is what happened.    And after such a dry July and August here... a wet September seemed likely.     And it happened... we had 19 days with rain and ended up well above normal for rainfall.    And the first week of October has been really wet.    So now a 7-10 dry spell seems very likely.     

 

I am probably wrong though... I expect the rain to really pick up starting now.   No dry weather in sight.   

[TT-SEA]

Once we cannot continuing arguing about whether or not there is a drought I wonder what other cross you will take up to bare.

 

I would love to see an extended period of drier than normal weather up here and well above normal rainfall in Oregon.     That has to happen at some point.   It can't always be wetter than normal up here and drier than normal down there.    That is not how the law of averages works.    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I would love to see an extended period of drier than normal weather up here and well above normal rainfall in Oregon.     That has to happen at some point.   It can't always be wetter than normal up here and drier than normal down there.    That is not how the law of averages works.    

 

We shall see.

[TT-SEA]

Based on the last month... I would expect some drier weather up here and wet weather in SW WA and Oregon.   

 

But the normal ebb and flow of wet and dry periods only seems to work up here lately.    In Oregon now... it only seems to oscillate between dry and less dry.