November 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Next weekend already peaking my interest.

 

[Minny_Weather]

Next weekend already peaking my interest.

 

Same. Temperature is a major issue (and probably THE issue) with this one though. It is very possible that it could be 100% rain for us. Who knows, maybe the low will be a bit more South and temperature won't be an issue anymore.

[jaster220]

Same. Temperature is a major issue (and probably THE issue) with this one though. It is very possible that it could be 100% rain for us. Who knows, maybe the low will be a bit more South and temperature won't be an issue anymore.

 

FV3 seeing it. Has a swath of snow moving NE across Iowa

[Niko]

It looks ineteresting

[St Paul Storm]

Iffy thermals for next weekend on many of the models this afternoon. Lots of people gonna have their foot of snow melt one week later.

[jaster220]

Iffy thermals for next weekend on many of the models this afternoon. Lots of people gonna have their foot of snow melt one week later.

 

We'll have plow piles. That's officially winter down here

[Niko]

Currently at 38F w cloudy skies. Breezy conditions also.

[Minny_Weather]

FV3 seeing it. Has a swath of snow moving NE across Iowa

I'm seeing all rain for NE and IA on FV3. Basically the only model showing that too. Rain/snow line isn't even close to here on there.

[Minny_Weather]

ICON for next week's storm is.... Interesting to say the least. The low has a literal seizure in Colorado then ends up way South of other models, moving the low over Ark City. Same areas that got crushed today get crushed in that scenario. I'm discounting that right now simply because of how to low behaves in Colorado.

[Money]

Gfs takes it from OK to N IL but no cold air to work with at all

[St Paul Storm]

GEM a no-go as well.

[Minny_Weather]

GFS says "what storm? Oh yeah, that one. Yeah it's gonna go way South. Anyway, here's a shortwave with light snow for you." 

[Craig-OmahaWX]

After the stunt the GFS pulled at 0z last night forecasting 11 inches for here i wouldn't put much stock in it this far out.

[Money]

Ukie looks good with 995 L in IL and more cold air than the other models

[james1976]

My luck it will be a perfect track but all rain haha

[Minny_Weather]

After the stunt the GFS pulled at 0z last night forecasting 11 inches for here i wouldn't put much stock in it this far out.

GFS did something similar last week. I agree, let's wait a couple days and we can decide if we want to punt or not then. If I remember correctly, I think Euro even lost today's storm for a bit.

[Money]

My luck it will be a perfect track but all rain haha

The way it’s been going the last few years

[gabel23]

I’m all in on the euro. The official total for my area was 3.1, I measured 2.5 but the euro was showing 3.5 for me 4 days in advance. I’m riding that model for this next weekends storm hopefully!

[jcwxguy]

Euro is.really juiced for next weekend

[Money]

989 L in IL

 

https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2018112600&fh=144

 

Looks like Ukie at 144

[Money]

12+ from NE/IA/WI on the euro

[jcwxguy]

12+ from NE/IA/WI on the euro

[hlcater]

 

Looks about right

[St Paul Storm]

Suppression in play with the possible system next weekend. South is the way to go again. Chicago gonna get another monster.

[james1976]

Wow that Euro would be perfect for me. Too bad its 5 days out and that is another narrow snow band.

[james1976]

Hopefully the Euro is on to something. Seems like it has done better lately. Regardless, that is a heck of a storm parade on the GFS.

[james1976]

What is the Ukie showing for precip?

[westMJim]

Here are the definitions of several winter weather Watches and Warnings for much of our area 

 

 Winter Storm Watch

A Winter Storm Watch is issued when there is the potential for significant and hazardous winter weather within 48 hours. It does not mean that significant and hazardous winter weather will occur...it only means it is possible.

Winter Storm Warning

A Winter Storm Warning is issued when a significant combination of hazardous winter weather is occurring or imminent.

Significant and hazardous winter weather is defined as a combination of:
1)  6 inches or more of snow/sleet within a 12-hour period or 8 inches or more of snow/sleet within a 24-hour period
AND/OR
2)  Enough ice accumulation to cause damage to trees or powerlines.
AND/OR
3)  a life threatening or damaging combination of snow and/or ice accumulation with wind.

Blizzard Warning

A Blizzard Warning means that the following conditions are occurring or expected within the next 12 to 18 hours.
1) Snow and/or blowing snow reducing visibility to 1/4 mile or less for 3 hours or longer
AND
2)  Sustained winds of 35 mph or greater or frequent gusts to 35 mph or greater.

Winter Weather Advisory

A Winter Weather Advisory will be issued for any amount of freezing rain, or when 3 to 5 inches of snow (alone or in combination with sleet and freezing rain), is expected to cause a significant inconvenience, but not serious enough to warrant a warning.

Ice Storm Warning

¼ inch or more of ice accumulation.

[Iowawx]

 

12+ from NE/IA/WI on the euro

Good grief. First storm misses CR 15 miles to the south and the other onec misses CR just off to the north. We can’t catch a break here. So sick of it. Here comes another sucky winter!

[james1976]

Pretty good snow shower right now. That cold advection is strong. Windy and low stratus.

[Minny_Weather]

Near-Jackpot for here with a sharp cutoff only a few miles Southeast of me 6 days out on Euro. What could possibly go wrong?

[james1976]

Good grief. First storm misses CR 15 miles to the south and the other onec misses CR just off to the north. We can’t catch a break here. So sick of it. Here comes another sucky winter!

It's one model showing a storm and its 5 days away.

[East Dubzz]

 

Looks about right

Haha... had the same exact thought...

[Niko]

Currently, snow and wind...several inches expected. Under a WWA. Temp at 34F.

[Niko]

It stays cold right through the week w snow chances. The 40s try to creep in by the weekend, but don't stay too long. Next week is very cold as highs remain in the 20s and lows in the teens.

[CentralNebWeather]

Local met. talking about the wintry pattern upcoming.  He mentioned the GFS and Euro for this weekend but says there are many possibilities in the coming weeks.  

[GDR]

Gfs with a good hit to almost the same area

[St Paul Storm]

Anyone thinking the next storm will be north is fooling themselves. Split flow pattern with a very strong southern stream means very little chance of anything north. Unless the setup changes, lock in the southern solutions. Not saying it can’t or won’t happen, but it doesn’t look likely atm

[Niko]

Not a lot of sunshine in my forecast...that's for sure

[Niko]

I nice little warm-up by the weekend as temps approach the 40s w rain.