Requiem Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Wow Kansas City is 27 with snow and winds gusting to 55mph right now. Totally insane for November. Lucky. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Alaska high too far east on the 18Z so cold air gets shafted east. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Looks chilly in Phoenix on the 18z. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Gets chilly, but not cold. At the surface would be a chilly pattern though. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 That was some GFS run. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 GFS shows 2000'-2500' snow levels. Maybe we can manage a high in the low 40s? Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Well there would probably be a lot of fake cold if that run verified and my goodness that is some shot of cold going into the eastern half of the nation late in the run. Looks like no sign of the arctic express letting up. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 At this point it just feels like the cold will always slide east in this new climate. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 At this point it just feels like the cold will always slide east in this new climate. I'm actually pretty optimistic. Call me Phil, but I think in a decade or two all of this hand wringing will seem pretty silly. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 At this point it just feels like the cold will always slide east in this new climate. The eastern 2/3 of the country has always seen more arctic airmasses than us. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 I don't get it. Chicago's getting a blizzard, New York has had a snowstorm, the South had a powerful storm last week. Why can't we get our turn for once? 2 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Ugh. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Ugh. Should we explain climate 101? Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 I don't get it. Chicago's getting a blizzard, New York has had a snowstorm, the South had a powerful storm last week. Why can't we get our turn for once?My theory is because all of the people who like boring weather come to the west coast (because these are the people who hate the snow, thunderstorms, active weather and all that fun stuff). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Ridge once again too far east on the FV3...lets hope ensembles aren't going back to the old warm anomaly stuff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Honestly even though it is likely the vast majority of the cold air slides east it looks like a below average start to December in the PNW. Dry airmass that starts as pretty chilly and then transitions to "fake cold" probably. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 This is incredible. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/mon2day.F.gif 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Massive arctic outbreak. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Does anyone know when the GFS is being replaced/combined with the FV3 into one model? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 At this point it just feels like the cold will always slide east in this new climate.Pretty much an expected outcome. Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Massive arctic outbreak. Sure, if you live in Minnesota Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Sure, if you live in Minnesota The worst part is that pattern doesn't even give PDX any east wind. It's just cold and boring, and dry. I just want one significant storm, but looks like for the time being it's just the mess that's tomorrow's system and then perhaps a storm on Saturday (trending weaker each run). Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 The worst part is that pattern doesn't even give PDX any east wind. It's just cold and boring, and dry. I just want one significant storm, but looks like for the time being it's just the mess that's tomorrow's system and then perhaps a storm on Saturday (trending weaker each run). Honestly all I care about is snow. I don't care about cold, wind or anything else for that matter. I'm hoping for a 1996 repeat this winter lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Jones Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 The eastern 2/3 of the country has always seen more arctic airmasses than us. These new mountain ranges that have popped up in the last couple decades are total ******* bullshit. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 The worst part is that pattern doesn't even give PDX any east wind. It's just cold and boring, and dry. I just want one significant storm, but looks like for the time being it's just the mess that's tomorrow's system and then perhaps a storm on Saturday (trending weaker each run). Stop being a baby. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 25, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 If the last few days of the month don't produce any snow for 4000-4500 foot elevations, that would match Nov 2014 here (had just a trace that month). Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 I think the real winter weather potential will be generally north of Seattle and in that December 3-5 period. Just a hunch.That works! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Honestly all I care about is snow. I don't care about cold, wind or anything else for that matter. I'm hoping for a 1996 repeat this winter lol. To be honest I just want an event. Just something cool, like a heavy rain+wind as in November 2006 or November 1996, a December 2006 windstorm, a December 2008 redux, or even a January 1998 redux. In each of these years there was at least one significant weather event, if not more. This is one of the only years where I can say that 2018 has not brought a single significant event to the area. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Stop being a baby. What's funny is what the FV3 shows would probably be a pretty good east wind setup. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Wow Kansas City is 27 with snow and winds gusting to 55mph right now. Totally insane for November. SOLAR MIN MAYHEM!!! Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Stop being a baby. Oh well. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 What's funny is what the FV3 shows would probably be a pretty good east wind setup.If the basin turns cold then the east wind will come. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 If the basin turns cold then the east wind will come. Given it will be early December and the initial airmass is fairly chilly that should not be a problem. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Another warm weak Santa Ana Wind day in California. We have very small backyards here due to the population density, so there's not much time to enjoy the sunshine without going to the nearby sports park. Fires are finally contained, with more rain forecast Thursday. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Looks like a really deep trough on the long range of the FV3, looking to bring back some cold air. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Perhaps I overreacted. Sorry, I'm just a bit tired of the same old same old for an entire year. I loved 2016-2017, why not a repeat of that? Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Pretty strong Aleutian ridging signal in the ensembles for second week of December. 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Holy mother of God. January 1971 redux?! 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Pretty strong Aleutian ridging signal in the ensembles for second week of December. gfs-ens_z500a_namer_50.png Nice. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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