jaster220 Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Could be more like afternoon w you if LES kicks in. I can see it snowing IYBY pass the noon hour. Even if it doesn't, given an inch per/hr, snowfall rates, should it start snowing IYBY by 1 to 130am, provides you w 9 to 10 inches storm total. This will be a heavy wet snow, so water content will be high. I like high-moisture snow, especially for an early storm as a base. Not sure we get wall-to-wall rates like that but feeling good about it ripping nicely. Perhaps nicer than I've witnessed in a long time around here and best for Nov since my bliz up north in Nov of '95 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VMB443 Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 I'd hate to be in Milwaukee Wisconsin right now! My sister lives there. Tight gradient there as well.That’s what I’m feeling right now here in Milwaukee! A few flakes in the sky just started but I’m afraid this is going to be a bust for us - but they are holding fast to their forecast so what do I know! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Just beautiful stuff playing out right now across N IL...#thundersnow https://twitter.com/i/status/1066853234562740224 I missed the TSSN that hit Marshall in Feb of '14 and can't remember the last time I've seen any? Gotta love a dynamic storm. I see latest LOT map has a couple 12-18" zones again Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 I like high-moisture snow, especially for an early storm as a base. Not sure we get wall-to-wall rates like that but feeling good about it ripping nicely. Perhaps nicer than I've witnessed in a long time around here and best for Nov since my bliz up north in Nov of '95Enjoy it buddy.......hope ya have ur blower ready...... Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakjen Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Condirions are awful out here now. I-80 is crawling out here. Most rural roads closed. Thundersnow happening and power flickering all over the county. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 26, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 I missed the TSSN that hit Marshall in Feb of '14 and can't remember the last time I've seen any? Gotta love a dynamic storm. I see latest LOT map has a couple 12-18" zones againSome spots in McHenry county already have 6”... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Records being broke "As of 6 pm, Rockford's had 7.0" of snow, breaking the previous daily record of 3.3" set back on 11/25/1977. This also breaks record for heaviest calendar snowfall in November for Rockford. The previous record was 6.6" on 11/27/1995." 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Thunder snow in Mendota,il https://www.facebook.com/NWSChicago/videos/351511332072789/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Lots of thundersnow reports in N IL! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Historic storm. 68mph wind gusts in Concordia, KS today! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Not certain where exactly this is, but awesome to seeThat would be Muscatine IA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 That would be Muscatine IA Ahh, thx Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Historic storm. 68mph wind gusts in Concordia, KS today! Yeah, that highway vid was intense! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Some spots in McHenry county already have 6”... I'm looking forward to the winds. Snow with winds seem to be a rarity around here. Meanwhile, Marshall's annual Monday after Thanksgiving holiday parade (one of the major events for this small community) is tomorrow evening. Normally it goes on rain or shine. I was on a float my first year here in '02 and we had 5" of snow that afternoon and the temp dropped like a rock to 5F during the 6-8 pm parade time. Depending on how the storm evolves over my way, the city (which normally plows the snow into the center not the side of main street) may find themselves in a rare situation like NYC did with Time Square for NYE '09 I think it was. This is historic stuff partner! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Enjoy it buddy.......hope ya have ur blower ready...... I have a snow thrower - me! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Historic storm. 68mph wind gusts in Concordia, KS today!That's nuts. Glad we headed home Saturday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Anyone with those track maps pls? Can't remember if it's SPC WPC CBS or who exactly issues those Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 I have a snow thrower - me! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 It's still November. If this storm is a sign of things to come....wow. Gonna be an epic winter for many. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 That’s what I’m feeling right now here in Milwaukee! A few flakes in the sky just started but I’m afraid this is going to be a bust for us - but they are holding fast to their forecast so what do I know!I was at work all day and assumed MKE cancelled the WSW for Waukesha and Milwaukee. I guess they didn't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Anyone with those track maps pls? Can't remember if it's SPC WPC CBS or who exactly issues those It's still November. If this storm is a sign of things to come....wow. Gonna be an epic winter for many.Let the fun begin..... Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthandturf Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 It's still November. If this storm is a sign of things to come....wow. Gonna be an epic winter for many. Isn't the forecast for December dry and warmer than normal in the Midwest? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yerf Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Really whipping around here. Just went out now to shovel and already have close to 2” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Isn't the forecast for December dry and warmer than normal in the Midwest?Those are never set in stone. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VMB443 Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 I was at work all day and assumed MKE cancelled the WSW for Waukesha and Milwaukee. I guess they didn't.I’m not quite sure what they’re seeing that I’m not - like you I’ve been waiting all day for them to cancel it and surprised they haven’t. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 It's still November. If this storm is a sign of things to come....wow. Gonna be an epic winter for many. Almost all our good to great winters here in SMI featured a strong Nov storm followed by a strong Jan storm. I'm taking this as a sign 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakjen Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Just had more lightning here in LaSalle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 These storms are coming folks, be prepared for a wild start to December, especially for the Great Lakes. From a NE poster in the Amwx thd. Rarity in it's own right Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Looks like KC officially got 5.3", their largest storm since 2014. Not bad. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Not certain where exactly this is, but awesome to seeAbout 15-20 mi southwest of Davenport. The company I work for has a facility there. Closed tomorrow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Quite the Obs 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Looks like KC officially got 5.3", their largest storm since 2014. Not bad. Nice! @ Clinton What did you end up with for a total down there? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Almost all our good to great winters here in SMI featured a strong Nov storm followed by a strong Jan storm. I'm taking this as a signI'll second that Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Looking at my local radar, a ton of moisture headed its way Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakjen Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 I don’t think we see 6-10 here. Pulling north pretty quickly. Not snowing much now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Looking like the RN/SN line will initially set up about 1 county north of me. How quickly we get rates high enough to force cooling will be key. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 26, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 You don't read these type of Mesoscale Discussions often: Mesoscale Discussion 1664 Mesoscale Discussion 1664 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 PM CST Sun Nov 25 2018 Areas affected...Northern IL and adjacent portions of Eastern IA/Southern WI Concerning...Blizzard Valid 260054Z - 260700Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow will spread into a larger portion of northern IL this evening. As stronger winds move in from the west, blizzard conditions will expand later tonight across the region. DISCUSSION...00Z surface analysis depicts a 993 mb surface cyclone just northeast of St. Louis. To the north and northwest of the low, heavy snow is ongoing from northeast MO into northwest IL, with stronger winds in the northwestern quadrant of the cyclone producing blizzard conditions. Dual pol products from KILX/KLOT and recent surface obs and mPing reports indicate that the rain/snow line is moving eastward across northern IL, and this trend is expected to continue as backing surface winds result in increasing low-level cold advection to the north and northwest of the east-northeastward moving surface low. Snow should continue spreading into most of the Chicagoland area between now and 02Z, though areas in the immediate vicinity of Lake Michigan may see a longer period of mixed precipitation as northeasterly winds off of the lake maintain a slightly warmer near-surface layer. Substantial convection has been noted near the surface low moving into southern IL, with a convective character to the precip (and some thundersnow reports) also noted within cooling cloud tops across northern IL. Strong low/midlevel frontogenesis will continue to favor moderate-to-heavy snow to the north of the midlevel low, with some convective enhancement possible just north of the midlevel dry slot, where relatively steep lapse rates (in excess of 7 C/km as noted on ILX/DVN 00Z soundings) will be maintained. Snow rates of 1-3 inches per hour are expected within the primary snow band, which should shift gradually eastward into northeast IL by late tonight. Strong winds (gusts in excess of 40 kt) are resulting in ongoing blizzard conditions from northeast MO into northwest IL. These stronger winds will expand eastward with time tonight in conjunction with the movement of the surface low, resulting in an expansion of blizzard conditions into northeast IL and perhaps far southeast WI after 03Z tonight. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Corrected..URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Grand Rapids MI933 PM EST Sun Nov 25 2018MIZ051-052-056>059-064>067-071>074-261045-/O.CON.KGRR.WW.Y.0024.181126T0400Z-181126T1800Z/Montcalm-Gratiot-Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-Allegan-Barry-Eaton-Ingham-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson-Including the cities of Greenville, Alma, Grand Haven, Jenison,Grand Rapids, Ionia, St. Johns, Holland, Hastings, Charlotte,Lansing, South Haven, Kalamazoo, Battle Creek, and Jackson933 PM EST Sun Nov 25 2018...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM ESTMONDAY...* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches expected. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph may result in power outages. Snowfall rates of an inch per hour are possible.* WHERE...Portions of central, south central and southwest Michigan.* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. Patchy blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions are expected to impact the morning commute.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow willcause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roadsand limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.&&We had a WWA for the 1-2" that came on Nov 9th. This is not that. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Looking like the RN/SN line will initially set up about 1 county north of me. How quickly we get rates high enough to force cooling will be key.Was just about to post....I have a snow shield to my west making a B-line towards my area. Rain/snow line cutting it half, just bellow a county (probably half county size). I expect rapid cooling to take place once precip arrives. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Corrected..URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Grand Rapids MI933 PM EST Sun Nov 25 2018MIZ051-052-056>059-064>067-071>074-261045-/O.CON.KGRR.WW.Y.0024.181126T0400Z-181126T1800Z/Montcalm-Gratiot-Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-Allegan-Barry-Eaton-Ingham-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson-Including the cities of Greenville, Alma, Grand Haven, Jenison,Grand Rapids, Ionia, St. Johns, Holland, Hastings, Charlotte,Lansing, South Haven, Kalamazoo, Battle Creek, and Jackson933 PM EST Sun Nov 25 2018...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM ESTMONDAY...* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches expected. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph may result in power outages. Snowfall rates of an inch per hour are possible.* WHERE...Portions of central, south central and southwest Michigan.* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. Patchy blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions are expected to impact the morning commute.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow willcause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roadsand limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.&&We had a WWA for the 1-2" that came on Nov 9th. This is not that. :lol:...this should be a WSW.....NOT a WWA. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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