Tom Posted December 9, 2018 Report Share Posted December 9, 2018 There was heavy frost everywhere on the way to the gym this morning. The bare ground is definitely cooling off significantly without any snow OTG. It’s frozen solid and hopefully it won’t warm up to much just beneath the surface after this weeks warmth. Some models continue to show a weak disturbance tracking across the area on Wed that may spit out some light snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 9, 2018 Report Share Posted December 9, 2018 There was heavy frost everywhere on the way to the gym this morning. The bare ground is definitely cooling off significantly without any snow OTG. It’s frozen solid and hopefully it won’t warm up to much just beneath the surface after this weeks warmth. Some models continue to show a weak disturbance tracking across the area on Wed that may spit out some light snow.There was heavy frost here as well. Everything covered in white. It looked like a snowstorm had occurred. Bottomed out at 12F. Definitely puts you in that Christmas spirit. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 9, 2018 Report Share Posted December 9, 2018 Whoa! Bottomed out at 10 deg's here in Marshall. No wonder my furnace was working OT. Finally, a truly COLD over-night here in far SMI. Grid that had 36F for my high today under sunshine is now down to 31F. That's quite the drop for a temp-cast within 24 hrs, especially not being The Plains. Wonder what GRR missed with the original call? Next 4 days showing mid-upper 30's and with the low sun angle it's likely 75% or more of hours will be AOB freezing. Latest guidance seems to be removing the heavy rainer next Fri/Sat and instead tracking that across Dixie right where the snowstorm is hitting. That'll be ugly for them if it goes that way. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 9, 2018 Report Share Posted December 9, 2018 Whoa! Bottomed out at 10 deg's here in Marshall. No wonder my furnace was working OT. Finally, a truly COLD over-night here in far SMI. Grid that had 36F for my high today under sunshine is now down to 31F. That's quite the drop for a temp-cast within 24 hrs, especially not being The Plains. Wonder what GRR missed with the original call? Next 4 days showing mid-upper 30's and with the low sun angle it's likely 75% or more of hours will be AOB freezing. Latest guidance seems to be removing the heavy rainer next Fri/Sat and instead tracking that across Dixie right where the snowstorm is hitting. That'll be ugly for them if it goes that way.Yup.....now my forecast calls for partly cloudy skies and seasonable temps. Also, things looks to get interesting on or after the 20th. Gear up and get ready........fun times ahead for a lot of us on here after this temporarily relaxation. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 9, 2018 Report Share Posted December 9, 2018 Watching Bastardi's Sat update and his temp departure maps comparing autumn '02 and this one. Very very similar 2 month period of chill, followed in Dec by a warm spell. The '02 warm spell lasted 3 wks (12/15 to 1/4/03) and when it ended the storm track wasn't very favorable for Marshall and SWMI. It was favorable for Detroit and OH tho. Comparing that Nov snowfall at Battle Creek (which wasn't bad with 6.8") to this year's record of 24.1" gives me hope that while the two years may compare in SST pattern and temp trends, the net outcome may be better in terms of precip and snowfall. Certainly, this autumn here (post 11/9) has been even colder than '02, and the warm spell is looking less mild as well. One thing I would repeat about Dec of 2002 is the 7.8" storm total recorded for Christmas Day! That was a perfectly timed storm right in the midst of the "warm up". I remember the forecast had that all staying two states south of us. It was a surprise holiday gift when the snow shield came way up here instead. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 9, 2018 Report Share Posted December 9, 2018 I know it's a LONG way out but GFS dropping the hammer just in time for the Winter Solstice. Nice bowling ball system around the 21st and a Christmas day storm showing up. A lot of cold too. Lines up with what Tom has been saying. Couple weeks out yet so we'll have to see how it transpires. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 9, 2018 Report Share Posted December 9, 2018 Driving home last night after some shopping, I noticed plenty more houses that were decorated with Christmas lights and decor. The late stragglers had ideal weather this weekend to put up their decorations. Now you can say, my neighborhood is looking more like the holidays...all we need is a fresh blanket of snow. Speaking of snow, although there are minimal chances this coming week, I'm still encouraged to see the ensembles suggesting a favorable pattern just before the Winter Solstice. By the way, isn't it ironic, just as we transition into the official Winter season on the 21st, all the way across the Pole in Eurasia, a major disruption of the Polar Vortex will be underway and likely the cattle prod that sets off an onslaught of Ol' Man Winter on this side of the Pole to close out December. Check out both the GEPS/GEFS 10mb heights animations....January is going to be stupidly cold. I'm already lockin that one in. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 9, 2018 Report Share Posted December 9, 2018 I know it's a LONG way out but GFS dropping the hammer just in time for the Winter Solstice. Nice bowling ball system around the 21st and a Christmas day storm showing up. A lot of cold too. Lines up with what Tom has been saying. Couple weeks out yet so we'll have to see how it transpires. 1) I think it's legit and Tom's post on the EAR was spot on.2) Too soon to tell winners and losers with the initial system ofc. Some of us could still get our Christmas rained on.3) The bowling ball system would be the best way to avoid the haves and have-nots and gets my vote. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 9, 2018 Report Share Posted December 9, 2018 Watching Bastardi's Sat update and his temp departure maps comparing autumn '02 and this one. Very very similar 2 month period of chill, followed in Dec by a warm spell. The '02 warm spell lasted 3 wks (12/15 to 1/4/03) and when it ended the storm track wasn't very favorable for Marshall and SWMI. It was favorable for Detroit and OH tho. Comparing that Nov snowfall at Battle Creek (which wasn't bad with 6.8") to this year's record of 24.1" gives me hope that while the two years may compare in SST pattern and temp trends, the net outcome may be better in terms of precip and snowfall. Certainly, this autumn here (post 11/9) has been even colder than '02, and the warm spell is looking less mild as well. One thing I would repeat about Dec of 2002 is the 7.8" storm total recorded for Christmas Day! That was a perfectly timed storm right in the midst of the "warm up". I remember the forecast had that all staying two states south of us. It was a surprise holiday gift when the snow shield came way up here instead.Your conundrum of sorts is solved by blending back in 2000-01 and some of 2010-11. We're a month or so ahead like 2000 but with weather similar to 2010-11 at this time, in my opinion. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 9, 2018 Report Share Posted December 9, 2018 NOAA: The latest ECMWF solutionis keeping the more south track seen in the past few cycles andlargely misses our area, while the GFS and Canadian show atrajectory into the eastern Great Lakes which gives the chance forsome precipitation here. If we do get moisture, it will be rain. Looks interesting after the 20th though. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 9, 2018 Report Share Posted December 9, 2018 Currently at 29F w clear skies. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 9, 2018 Report Share Posted December 9, 2018 Haha. GRR had a storm report of 10" from Podunk Lake, but this one from VA may even beat that for anecdotal humor award: 000NWUS51 KRNK 092222LSRRNKPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA522 PM EST SUN DEC 9 2018..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON.....DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE......REMARKS..0521 PM SNOW 2 WSW WILLIAMSBURG 37.95N 80.53W12/09/2018 E10.0 INCH GREENBRIER WV PUBLICREPORTED AT CORNSTALK, WV.&&$AL Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 9, 2018 Report Share Posted December 9, 2018 LOL. It's becoming comical how many times I've had snow falling at 7 am this young winter. GFS says here's some more Thurs morning 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 9, 2018 Report Share Posted December 9, 2018 LOL. It's becoming comical how many times I've had snow falling at 7 am this young winter. GFS says here's some more Thurs morning I'd be paying attn more at that low showing down in Amarillo, TX, No?! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 9, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 9, 2018 Not a single drop of precip on Euro over the next 10 days, minus possibly a bit of light rain on Wednesday night. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 9, 2018 Report Share Posted December 9, 2018 Looks like another cold nite w temps falling into the teens once again. Although, not nearly as cold as last nite. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 Your conundrum of sorts is solved by blending back in 2000-01 and some of 2010-11. We're a month or so ahead like 2000 but with weather similar to 2010-11 at this time, in my opinion. Thanks for this. Dec '00 was off the charts here. '10-11 wasn't so stellar, but I see where you're going with it and agree. I doubt we've seen a winter with so much S Stream action in a long long time so it's hard to find an exact analog example tbh. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 Looks like another cold nite w temps falling into the teens once again. Although, not nearly as cold as last nite. Already beating my grid-cast "low" of 21F with a stout 19F. Nice to be busting low for a change. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 Not a single drop of precip on Euro over the next 10 days, minus possibly a bit of light rain on Wednesday night. This is not only a relaxing of the cold, it's like somebody switched on a wx force field across our sub. At least I now have SHSN likely Wed night. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 Already beating my grid-cast "low" of 21F with a stout 19F. Nice to be busting low for a change.Same here...each nite they lower my temps at least 2-4 degrees from the previous forecast low temp. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 Sitting at 22F right now. Temps are dropping like a rock. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 That’s 384 hrs of pure bliss on gfs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 January is going to be stupidly cold. I'm already lockin that one in. I agree 100%. I think it will be one that we remember for a long time. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 I agree 100%. I think it will be one that we remember for a long time.Gear up...Wild weather is coming. Enjoy this relaxation... 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 Was down to 18F when they raised my low to 23F. Technically, this is still today but still, they coulda used that little arrow when temps will rise overnight. ASOS reporting "mist and fog" and 20F. Again wouldn't that be freezing fog?? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 Gear up...Wild weather is coming. Enjoy this relaxation... I'm sure it is for somebody. Hey, GDR's screen cap of the GFS looks choice for The Mitt, eh? I know that wasn't his point tho Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 I'm sure it is for somebody. Hey, GDR's screen cap of the GFS looks choice for The Mitt, eh? I know that wasn't his point thoI dont think I trust the GFS that much. I prefer the Euro and the NAM. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 Temps are now at 18F w crystal clear skies. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 ASOS reporting "mist and fog" and 20F. Again wouldn't that be freezing fog??Was editing my post and some how deleted it all. What is likely happening here is that ASOS is picking up BR - but it's being shown via Accwx or whatever source to a media device as "light fog". (usually under 5SM VIS from experience) There is no such thing as -FG when it comes to an official metar transmission, much like there is no "Flurries" - just very -SN. ASOS will show mist (BR) as an obscuration whenever the T/D separation is less then 4F AND the VIS is less than 7SM. Greater than 4F T/D it will be HAZE (HZ) or less than 5/8SM- the BR becomes FG.. There is no such thing as "FG BR" when it comes to Metars per the 7900.5D. ( the guide book provided by the FAA for Metars) Most ASOS's will now report FZFG when the conditions are met for FG and with temp below 0C. No AWOS do as far as I know. Very rarely do you hear mention of freezing mist when prevailing VIS is greater than 1/2SM but less than 7SM and T/D separation of 4 or less and temps below 0C - but that is exactly what it is.A question I would like answered from the NWS is why do some offices issues a Dense Fog Advisory with temps below 0C and others a Freezing Fog Advisroy?? Never figured that one out.... 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 Was editing my post and some how deleted it all. What is likely happening here is that ASOS is picking up BR - but it's being shown via Accwx or whatever source to a media device as "light fog". (usually under 5SM VIS from experience) There is no such thing as -FG when it comes to an official metar transmission, much like there is no "Flurries" - just very -SN. ASOS will show mist (BR) as an obscuration whenever the T/D separation is less then 4F AND the VIS is less than 7SM. Greater than 4F T/D it will be HAZE (HZ) or less than 5/8SM- the BR becomes FG.. There is no such thing as "FG BR" when it comes to Metars per the 7900.5D. ( the guide book provided by the FAA for Metars) Most ASOS's will now report FZFG when the conditions are met for FG and with temp below 0C. No AWOS do as far as I know. Very rarely do you hear mention of freezing mist when prevailing VIS is greater than 1/2SM but less than 7SM and T/D separation of 4 or less and temps below 0C - but that is exactly what it is.A question I would like answered from the NWS is why do some offices issues a Dense Fog Advisory with temps below 0C and others a Freezing Fog Advisroy?? Never figured that one out.... Thx for that break down Grizz. I'm getting my obs directly on the NWS site. Visibility didn't indicate true foggy conditions. My main point was simply that if there was moisture of any form, at 18 or 20F it'd be frozen/freezing. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 Currently at 24 w cloudy skies. Looks like some rain possible by weeks end and temps warm up nicely into the 40s for several days. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 January is going to be stupidly cold. I'm already lockin that one in. I think North Texas will be joining that party. I'm wondering if this will be another winter when Corpus Christie sees its rare snow on the beach ? Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 10, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 Everything is so frosted over this morning it looks like it's all snow covered. Still holding onto a bit of snowcover here. That'll all be gone in the next couple days. 16.7*F. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 Some slick driving out there this morning. We have freezing fog, and even some super fine pixie dust that has been falling pretty steadily at times. Currently 19F. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 I am surprised we still have a solid 3" snow cover. There are a few places that are starting to melt a little and warmer weather later this week should melt off everything except the piles and some of the drifts in the road ditches. Pretty boring stretch of weather, hoping for Dec. 23rd on when we get back into some exciting times. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 Thanks for this. Dec '00 was off the charts here. '10-11 wasn't so stellar, but I see where you're going with it and agree. I doubt we've seen a winter with so much S Stream action in a long long time so it's hard to find an exact analog example tbh.The fluctuations (crashes) in ENSO 1, 1.2 are the hat tip to those seasons. Just enough tropical flux there to get the cold to crash in, then the moisture follows. It's like a war between a Niña and a Niño. It's going to be perfect. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 I've got a "sneak attack" coming at me possibly. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 Temps are remaining fairly uniform, in the mid 20s w cloudy skies. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 End of the GFS run looks interesting. Lots of cold area lurking around Christmas time and maybe some type of storm. Obviously not looking at a specific run only, but a potential cold pattern for sure with maybe storminess.. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.