Kayla Posted December 12, 2018 Report Share Posted December 12, 2018 Went to poop. Garbage model!! Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 12, 2018 Report Share Posted December 12, 2018 Ummmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.... Now I hate it. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 12, 2018 Report Share Posted December 12, 2018 Old Yeller died. Our march toward a Zihuatanejo-lite climate hasn't! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 12, 2018 Report Share Posted December 12, 2018 I can live with the GEM though. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 12, 2018 Report Share Posted December 12, 2018 Our march toward a Zihuatanejo-lite climate hasn't! One of my all-time favorite city names. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted December 12, 2018 Report Share Posted December 12, 2018 Over an inch of rain here today, most of which fell in the morning. Not much of a rain shadow here with this pattern. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 12, 2018 Report Share Posted December 12, 2018 I can live with the GEM though. Moscow could live with this. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 12, 2018 Report Share Posted December 12, 2018 It's coming down here right now. Heavy rain, wind, and hail. 20 years ago it would have been 10 degrees colder and it'd be a blizzard outside.In a week or so that joke will gain some gravitas, as we will be tracking at 20 years since the December 1998 arctic outbreak. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 12, 2018 Report Share Posted December 12, 2018 12-98 was the first time I remember the MRF coming through with something in the long range. Picked things up 9-10 days and only had one significant hiccup along the way. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 12, 2018 Report Share Posted December 12, 2018 Moscow could live with this. gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eu_40.png Pretty limited cold air supply anywhere right now in the mid latitudes. It's almost like the Earth is warm or something.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 12, 2018 Report Share Posted December 12, 2018 Pretty limited cold air supply anywhere right now in the mid latitudes. It's almost like the Earth is warm or something....Baffin Island! Lol!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 12, 2018 Report Share Posted December 12, 2018 Getting a bit of snow up at Snoqualmie Pass currently. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 12, 2018 Report Share Posted December 12, 2018 12-98 was the first time I remember the MRF coming through with something in the long range. Picked things up 9-10 days and only had one significant hiccup along the way.Was the MRF basically the precursor to the GFS? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 12, 2018 Report Share Posted December 12, 2018 Kind of amazing how much the GFS has been cutting back on precip with these upcoming systems. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 12, 2018 Report Share Posted December 12, 2018 Just like that the gefs brings back hope. Pretty nice ridge retrogression into the goa. Nice 850mb temp anamoly. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 12, 2018 Report Share Posted December 12, 2018 If this were to verify it would be my 3rd dry December in a row. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 12, 2018 Report Share Posted December 12, 2018 Was the MRF basically the precursor to the GFS?I'm fairly certain that's the case. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 12, 2018 Report Share Posted December 12, 2018 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 12, 2018 Report Share Posted December 12, 2018 If this were to verify it would be my 3rd dry December in a row. I'm gonna venture a guess that some Nov-Dec dry records will be falling in EUG. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 12, 2018 Report Share Posted December 12, 2018 Baffin Island! Lol!!!! Solar minimum!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 12, 2018 Report Share Posted December 12, 2018 Getting a bit of snow up at Snoqualmie Pass currently. 090VC05200 (1).jpgLooks like lumpy rain to me. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 12, 2018 Report Share Posted December 12, 2018 Pretty limited cold air supply anywhere right now in the mid latitudes. It's almost like the Earth is warm or something.... Desperate times call for desperate maps. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 12, 2018 Report Share Posted December 12, 2018 I'm gonna venture a guess that some Nov-Dec dry records will be falling in EUG. I'm going to venture a guess not even close. Look up 1976. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 12, 2018 Report Share Posted December 12, 2018 Just like that the gefs brings back hope. Pretty nice ridge retrogression into the goa. Nice 850mb temp anamoly. Dramatic improvement today in the 300+ hour period. Now let's move it up. 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 12, 2018 Report Share Posted December 12, 2018 Getting a bit of snow up at Snoqualmie Pass currently. 090VC05200 (1).jpgWe have discovered that camera makes all precip look heavier than it is... my son has been cross referencing with Snoqualmie Summit cams for the last few days. Even rain can look like snow. I suspect it will start dumping snow there soon with the c-zone slipping south now. That might be sleet in that image. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 12, 2018 Report Share Posted December 12, 2018 Just like that the gefs brings back hope. Pretty nice ridge retrogression into the goa. Nice 850mb temp anamoly.Yeah, I wasn't expecting that. Strong retrogression. Really quite close to being great. I am cautiously optimistic based on the 00z GEM and 00z GEFS which at the least gives us a strong block over Alaska. Hey, Dewey, 00z ECMWF in 2 minutes! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 12, 2018 Report Share Posted December 12, 2018 Solar minimum!!! It will strike when you're least expecting it. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 12, 2018 Report Share Posted December 12, 2018 00z GEFS Spokane. This shows the definite potential for backdoor cold or arctic air. How you like them tabs? You know you're a weather geek when you have tabs like those. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 12, 2018 Report Share Posted December 12, 2018 00z GEFS Spokane. This shows the definite potential for backdoor cold or arctic air. How you like them tabs? You know you're a weather geek when you have tabs like those. Good to have u back in here. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 12, 2018 Report Share Posted December 12, 2018 Good to have u back in here.Thanks, you too. C'MON EURO!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 12, 2018 Report Share Posted December 12, 2018 Just on the southern edge of the c-zone here. A couple random ice pellets bouncing off the deck. My son just got home from Snoqualmie Ridge and said it was dumping hail in North Bend and the road was covered right up to the bottom of our road which is 1.8 miles away. He thought it would get even worse going up the hill but it completely stopped as soon as he started go up. Our road also goes south as it goes up and it stopped because he drove past the southern edge of the c-zone. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 12, 2018 Report Share Posted December 12, 2018 I’m just nervous that no one has mentioned a warning shot yet this winter. We have to have one of those before we can score, right? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 12, 2018 Report Share Posted December 12, 2018 00z GEFS Spokane. This shows the definite potential for backdoor cold or arctic air. How you like them tabs? You know you're a weather geek when you have tabs like those. Definitely a good sign. Better yet if we can get those ensembles to show up for Yakima. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 12, 2018 Report Share Posted December 12, 2018 I-90 at Snoqualmie Ridge and Hwy 18 just west of here now covered in hail... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 12, 2018 Report Share Posted December 12, 2018 00z GFS Op = Awful. 00z GEFS = Decent to good. Strong retrogression00z GEM Op = Decent to good. 00z CMCE Decent to good, Strong Retrogression00z EP Op = Poor, possible cold pool Columbia Basin. 00z EPS? A blend of the GEFS, CMCE in my opinion. 00z EPS in 1 hour 5 minutes6z GFS in 2 hours 5 minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 12, 2018 Report Share Posted December 12, 2018 In spite of the recent model trends for the near term, I'm very optimistic it will get cold before the year is done. The models are strongly indicating a period of extreme mid and high latituide blocking later in the month as pressure over the tropics becomes abnormally low. Low pressure over the tropical Pacific normally favors blocking closer to the poles. I am disappointed what appeared to be a possible quick AR to Arctic transition has probably fallen through unless it gets resurrected a bit down the road. The tropics have me very intrigued as the 30 day SOI is set to soar over +5 and possibly approaching +10 later in the month in spite of warm ENSO SST's. This is essentially unheard of. The GFS also shows the bottom dropping out of the pressure over Australia which is often a good signal for deep Western troughing. 4 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted December 12, 2018 Report Share Posted December 12, 2018 In spite of the recent model trends for the near term, I'm very optimistic it will get cold before the year is done. The models are strongly indicating a period of extreme mid and high latituide blocking later in the month as pressure over the tropics becomes abnormally low. Low pressure over the tropical Pacific normally favors blocking closer to the poles. I am disappointed what appeared to be a possible quick AR to Arctic transition has probably fallen through unless it gets resurrected a bit down the road. The tropics have me very intrigued as the 30 day SOI is set to soar over +5 and possibly approaching +10 later in the month in spite of warm ENSO SST's. This is essentially unheard of. The GFS also shows the bottom dropping out of the pressure over Australia which is often a good signal for deep Western troughing.Keep an eye on the low pressure at Darwin!!! Remember our research of the sub 1000 readings??? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 12, 2018 Report Share Posted December 12, 2018 Keep an eye on the low pressure at Darwin!!! Remember our research of the sub 1000 readings??? Indeed! I'm really excited about what the GFS is showing for tropics during week two. Basically a very low pressure strongly positive SOI. That combo can be dynamite for us. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 12, 2018 Report Share Posted December 12, 2018 Fun! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 12, 2018 Report Share Posted December 12, 2018 Much better looking EPS tonight 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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