December 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Is that a current AFD?   I thought we only posted historical AFDs from past events here?   

[ShawniganLake]

Yeah its a quick shot of 1000'-1500' snow levels with a transitory cold airmass.

Feels like the few days following Christmas has as much or more potential then the long range stuff

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Went for a tour of the damaged area and wow massive damage. Metal roofing wrapped around trees and trees snapped like tooth pick. From what I could tell the damage is 1/2 mile long and few hundred yards wide. 

[Deweydog]

Can someone post the AFD from the early shift on 1-16-2010?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Can someone post the AFD from the early shift on 1-16-2010?

Must have lived too far south for that one. I wasn’t on the coast yet. I remember getting the snow at the end of Dec but 1/16 rings no bells.

[BLI snowman]

Did anyone notice there were a few people who never post who came out of the woodwork to be total dicks after the tornado yesterday?

I think it was only one.

[Requiem]

I think it was only one.

I only noticed that individual. Some pretty sad comments he/she was making.

[Requiem]

How’s that windstorm doing for Centralia south?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

How’s that windstorm doing for Centralia south?

Very small.

[TT-SEA]

Peak wind gusts at the height of the storm tomorrow per the 12Z ECMWF...

 

[Phil]

Naturally it hasn’t helped us at all...

Well, it’s coincided with a cooler, stormier pattern.

 

It’s just the tropical forcing/initial PV placement has shoved all the cold air into Siberia.

 

For now.

[TT-SEA]

How does this compare to previous runs? Weaker/stronger/about the same?

 

 

Here was the 00Z run for the same time period...

 

[Skagit Weather]

How does this compare to previous runs? Weaker/stronger/about the same?

 

Judging from maps that have been posted on here it seems a bit stronger (at least compared to yesterday's runs)

[ShawniganLake]

Peak wind gusts at the height of the storm tomorrow per the 12Z ECMWF...

 

Wow. 60+mph. That would be a big storm here.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

The Christmas morning low looks to be just south of the Columbia River.  A couple of days ago I think it was going to Southern California, yesterday it was heading to Northern California.  Comparing the 12Z runs for similar times.   Any more details Tim?

[TT-SEA]

Wow. 60+mph. That would be a big storm here.

 

 

K12 would tell you to subtract 20mph.   

[TT-SEA]

The Christmas morning low looks to be just south of the Columbia River.  A couple of days ago I think it was going to Southern California, yesterday it was heading to Northern California.  Comparing the 12Z runs for similar times.   Any more details Tim?

 

 

Here is Christmas morning per the 12Z ECMWF... the afternoon looks drier.  

 

 

[TT-SEA]

Here is Christmas afternoon...

 

[ShawniganLake]

K12 would tell you to subtract 20mph.

Haha. We’ll know more tomorrow. Given the track and strength of the low on the Euro, something around 50-55mph seems likely here.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Here is Christmas afternoon...

 

Thanks.  The low looks closer, but it is still sending precip way south.  How does the Sunday/Monday system look?

[TT-SEA]

Thanks.  The low looks closer, but it is still sending precip way south.  How does the Sunday/Monday system look?

 

 

Really wet... and really snowy!   Its a double-barreled low set up... initial low on Sunday is sort of weak and then the Monday system is stronger.  

 

This is Saturday afternoon through Monday afternoon...

 

[Requiem]

Peak wind gusts at the height of the storm tomorrow per the 12Z ECMWF...

 

Looks great- for Puget Sound, that is. Much, much better than the OR storm yesterday. The NAM model gives high winds to a larger area, so I hope it is the one that verifies.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Really wet... and really snowy!   Its a double-barreled low set up... initial low on Sunday is sort of weak and then the Monday system is stronger.  

 

This is Saturday afternoon through Monday afternoon...

 

Wow, that is a change.  First, the GFS was the snowy one while the Euro was way south.  Now the GFS is not quite as snowy, but still some snow.  Thanks again for the map, a nice pre-Christmas gift, If it verifies.  We do have snow on the ground, but not a whole lot.  And it will be even less after the next storm, but this is just in time for Christmas.

[TT-SEA]

Tim - are these frames from weather.us?

 

If you've got time, can you post peak winds from all of the surface products available?

That is WB. That is all I use.

[Requiem]

The Euro likes that deeper, more organized low, but it pulls it a little north. The GFS likes the weaker, more haggard, but a bit to the south. Fun to watch how these model the wind shadow off of the Olympics. As a wind enthusiast in Everett, I am conflicted. If it comes south, then DT Everett is in the wind shadow and I have had a smaller event where it will be dead calm, but breezy in Snohomish or Pane Field. It it goes north, then I am out of the shadow, but it might not be as windy.

 

To note, I am not a property owner and really just feel the wind from the rooftop of my apartment while I am working. If we can get a power outage - then I might be able to take the day off.

 

As a wind enthusiast in Portland, I am very conflicted right now.

[ShawniganLake]

Looks great- for Puget Sound, that is. Much, much better than the OR storm yesterday. The NAM model gives high winds to a larger area, so I hope it is the one that verifies.

Hopefully not. It would be nice to see a well formed cyclone impact the PNW at some point. The NAM looks pretty ragged and weaker overall.

[Requiem]

Hopefully not. It would be nice to see a well formed cyclone impact the PNW at some point. The NAM looks pretty ragged and weaker overall.

 

I'm biased, I just want a better blow in PDX. Something like what hit WA last week. Hence my bias towards the NAM due to the 50 mph gusts in PDX and Seattle both.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well, it’s coincided with a cooler, stormier pattern.

 

It’s just the tropical forcing/initial PV placement has shoved all the cold air into Siberia.

 

For now.

 

WARMER stormier pattern. The first week of December was cool. We've been torching since.

[Bryant]

Love the Euro setup for tomorrow's storm up here

[Requiem]

Love the Euro setup for tomorrow's storm up here

 

It truly is an excellent setup for the Puget Sound. Enjoy, looks much better than yesterday's "event" down here.

[Requiem]

High Wind Warning for Seattle metro area.

[Bryant]

It truly is an excellent setup for the Puget Sound. Enjoy, looks much better than yesterday's "event" down here.

Has 60-70 mph gusts for my location, but my backyard is rarely modeled accurately due to higher terrain surrounding the neighborhood

[Blizzard777]

Wow. 60+mph. That would be a big storm here.

Those are scary winds I do not want...50 max is scary enough with fir trees

[ShawniganLake]

Those are scary winds I do not want...50 max is scary enough with fir trees

Shawnigan Lake is pretty much all fir trees. Luckily we don’t have any within striking distance of the house on the south or west sides.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

A true 60mph region wide blow will be very damaging. Let it rip.

[Requiem]

A true 60mph region wide blow will be very damaging. Let it rip.

This isn’t really a region-wide blow though. Definitely a Puget Sound and north windstorm. Maybe I should head up to Seattle? They seem to be having great luck with windstorms these days.

[ShawniganLake]

This isn’t really a region-wide blow though. Definitely a Puget Sound and north windstorm. Maybe I should head up to Seattle? They seem to be having great luck with windstorms these days.

The region is a big place. Pretty much impossible to get everyone in on the action

[TigerWoodsLibido]

This isn’t really a region-wide blow though. Definitely a Puget Sound and north windstorm. Maybe I should head up to Seattle? They seem to be having great luck with windstorms these days.

Exactly. We basically never have windstorms in the S valley at least it seems so over the last several years so there is almost never a regional windstorm on the order of 1995 anymore.

 

Also, I have a feeling folks up north are going to get 2 white Christmases in a row.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The region is a big place. Pretty much impossible to get everyone in on the action

It’s not impossible. There have been windstorms and snowstorms that have affected EUG to YVR before. Wasn’t Dec 1995 regional?

[Requiem]

The region is a big place. Pretty much impossible to get everyone in on the action

Which makes storms like 11/13/81, 12/12/95, 12/14/16 and even 12/11/14 all the more impressive. Puget Sound certainly does have more luck with windstorms.