January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

IMO, this is one of the most beautiful cases of stable subseasonal (MJO) resonance on top of a low frequency standing wave (ENSO/seasonal state).

 

[Phil]

Holy fuuck. The oncoming +QBO phase is an absolute behemoth. Another high amplitude cycle upcoming.

 

[MossMan]

Holy fuuck. The oncoming +QBO phase is an absolute behemoth. Another high amplitude cycle upcoming.

 

Does this mean we go from BSF to EBSF?

[HighlandExperience]

[Phil]

Though that is just the Singapore record. The MERRA-2 data suggests a slowish-propagator with a more typical amplitude, so it’s perhaps a longitudinal anomaly in the wave structure, which could have timing implications.

 

There’s 1996/97 again as perhaps closest structural match when accounting for BDC/photochemical boundary conditions that preclude years like 1994/95. The former was also a solar min winter year ahead of a healthy east based niño, which I think next winter is favored to be. We’re running a little ahead and flat/noisy in the trop as well, which is also not shocking since we’re probably not repeating the monster that was 1997/98.

 

[Phil]

But man..look at the tropopause now. We’ve got westerlies almost down to 50mb (about 45.5mb technically) but we’re clearly still shearing. This phase has another few months to run at least.

 

Next winter will almost certainly be full blown +QBO now or at least up to 35-40mb barring another bizarre fake out that nobody sees and is not evident in the SAO (which it probably wouldn’t be anyway).

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Onto 20-21!!!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Also, the yellowjackets lasted well into November this past year and with no cold, they will be awful by May and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them all the way to Thanksgiving.

[FroYoBro]

The east wind in the metro area is nice. It makes it feel like winter at least. 

[Phil]

Onto 20-21!!!

Well, the QBO alone (absent other variables) can’t predict your weather. It needs to be used in tandem with the other components that make up the system state.

 

On the other hand, it’s one of the primary drivers of state dependent low frequency tropical convective tendencies, so ignoring it (or using it incorrectly) will almost certainly lead to a busted mid-latitude seasonal forecast (which includes the PNW) and can screw with stuff like longer term ENSO forecasts if you’re experimenting with longer range tropical forecasts like that. The QBO hiccup in 2016 contributed to my near term ENSO miss, with that mini niño anomaly that showed up in the spring of 2017 arising indirectly from conduits opened up by said hiccup.

[MossMan]

Forks are back out of the drawer and are ready to be stabbed into this winter...Phil hold me back!!

[ShawniganLake]

Forks are back out of the drawer and are ready to be stabbed into this winter...Phil hold me back!!

No point in going down with the ship.

[Phil]

Forks are back out of the drawer and are ready to be stabbed into this winter...Phil hold me back!!

Don’t do it, man! Or at least, don’t lose heart.

 

This mini warm phase has just about run its course (as evidenced indirectly by the off-equator SSTA cooling across the EPAC).

 

 

This is a reflection of the breakdown of the +PMM/regime of poleward-displaced EPAC convection en-masse. And though we probably run an east-based niño with a warm South Pacific as a conduit to the -PMM, once we finish the niño, then via the subsequent backchannel communication thru the IPWP convection, you get long awaited low frequency return to -PNA/-PDO. Right on time.

[Deweydog]

Pretty sky!

 

Two weeks ago it would have already been DARK.

[Phil]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Don’t do it, man! Or at least, don’t lose heart.

 

This mini warm phase has just about run its course (as evidenced indirectly by the off-equator SSTA cooling across the EPAC).

 

 

This is a reflection of the breakdown of the +PMM/regime of poleward-displaced EPAC convection en-masse. And though we probably run an east-based niño with a warm South Pacific as a conduit to the -PMM, once we finish the niño, then via the subsequent backchannel communication thru the IPWP convection, you get long awaited low frequency return to -PNA/-PDO. Right on time.

It will all slide east. PNW can fork yet another winter. 2 straight without any accumulating snow for me. Longest streak of my life is 2 in a row so I guess I’m lucky.

[Phil]

BTW, I mistakenly gave some misinformation earlier.

 

I said a 4 week wind reversal would be unprecedented at 65N/10mb. That’s actually false. The wind reversal in Jan/Feb 2009 lasted ~ 5 weeks. It was a bizarre SSW that arose backwards, essentially from a direct upward amplifation of the super (tropospheric) Aleutian Ridge in Dec 2008, timed perfectly with a Scandinavian wavebreak.

 

There’s nothing else like it in the recent historical record, but I’d forgotten about it, so my statement was incorrect. Impossible for me to memorize all of this stuff, lol.

[Phil]

[Blizzard777]

Seattle is the new Chico.

Chico is HOT! Local residents don’t have stoves as they just cook their food on the pavement.

 

Felt like spring today

[Blizzard777]

Is this a k12 Special!

[Jesse]

Chico is HOT! Local residents don’t have stoves as they just cook their food on the pavement.

 

Felt like spring today

Glad we didn’t have to deal with that today. 49/36 here with brisk east winds.

[Phil]

[Deweydog]

Sarcasm and science don’t mix. Pure and simple.

[HighlandExperience]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just a heads up. Everything in Washington is better faster taller and more powerful than Maryland.

[Requiem]

Just a heads up. Everything in Washington is better faster taller and more powerful than Maryland.

‘Cept the windstorms.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

49/36 today.

[Phil]

[Jesse]

49/36 today.

[Jesse]

Willamete Valley is the swamp of the PNW. About 100x bigger than Puyallup.

There are actually a lot of decent microclimates in the Dub-V.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I love the food in Maryland. Blue channel crab in every bar.

[Phil]

Just a heads up. Everything in Washington is better faster taller and more powerful than Maryland.

Does that include political hackery, policy incompetence and overall corruption? I thought we had a lock on that stuff but perhaps I’m mistaken, lol.

[MossMan]

No wonder this is Matt’s favorite place!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

There are actually a lot of decent microclimates in the Dub-V.

 

And lots of homes at higher elevations that are close enough to commute to Eugene, Salem, or Portland. 

 

And the West Valley gets more snow than Seattle I would guess.

[Phil]

00z trying hard to continue the short term improvement from the 18z. Gonna at least be a close brush D6-9.

[Kayla]

00z trying hard to continue the short term improvement from the 18z. Gonna at least be a close brush D6-9.

 

Was just going to say that the 00z looks quite different in the medium range.

[Phil]

Mountains are gonna block it again, but it’s close. Need more amplified upstream waves and less jet still.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This run does show some outflow.

[Kayla]

Plenty of cold air to work with now!

[Phil]

Well shoot, it already cycled the NW-Pacific wave at 150hrs. Now that giant ULL off CA is gonna move in and truck across the country, probably merging with the eastern canadian trough. Close but no cigar.

 

Onto the next run.