January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Esquimalt]

12Z FV3 looking good if you extrapolate past hr 384.  

[Jesse]

12Z FV3 looking good if you extrapolate past hr 384.

This needs to be somebody’s sig.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

As far as the storms later this week and into the weekend, the Euro seems to have a pattern of the 12Z runs being quite wet (and snowy for the mountains), while the 0Z runs seem to be much drier.  At least for the Washington Cascades.  This back and forth has gone on for the last 5-6 runs.

[TT-SEA]

Amplification!   Its coming.   

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Amplification!   Its coming.   

 

 

I'm feeling good about my chances for cold weather in Oklahoma 23-28th. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Front Ranger]

Most promising Euro run since late December.

[BLI snowman]

This needs to be somebody’s sig.

 

Will be heavily featured in the winter 2018-19 highlight package. 

[Front Ranger]

This just showed up on my FB newsfeed. Apparently the 2m anomaly map for game time at the AFC title game...

 

 

Coldest conference championship game since that 2009 one in Green Bay?

 

Probably not as cold as the Hawk's playoff game in Minnesota a few years ago, though. I want to say that was the second coldest NFL game on record.

[MossMan]

Coldest conference championship game since that 2009 one in Green Bay?

 

Probably not as cold as the Hawk's playoff game in Minnesota a few years ago, though. I want to say that was the second coldest NFL game on record.

Wasn’t it below zero F at kickoff for that game?

[Front Ranger]

Amplification!   Its coming.   

 

 

Definitely ripe for further retrogression down the road, with the pattern moving towards Kona low and amplification towards the Aleutians.

 

Your early February call may be too late. 

[MossMan]

Definitely ripe for further retrogression down the road, with the pattern moving towards Kona low and amplification towards the Aleutians.

 

Your early February call may be too late.

Would be nice to get the January monkey off our backs.

[Front Ranger]

Wasn’t it below zero F at kickoff for that game?

 

-6 with a windchill of -25.

 

Google says it was actually the third coldest NFL game ever, behind the infamous Ice Bowl on 12/31/67 in Green Bay (-13), and the 1/10/82 AFC championship game in Cincinnati (-9).

 

It tied with 1/7/96 in KC, which also had a game time temp of -6. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

-6 with a windchill of -25.

 

Google says it was actually the third coldest NFL game ever, behind the infamous Ice Bowl on 12/31/67 in Green Bay (-13), and the 1/10/82 AFC championship game in Cincinnati (-9).

 

It tied with 1/7/96 in KC, which also had a game time temp of -6. 

 

 

Ryan Maue‏Verified account @RyanMaue 15m15 minutes ago

More

Comparing the 10-day forecasts in Kansas City from GFS and ECMWF models (12Z) on Sunday:

 

GFS high 6°F

ECMWF high 0°F

 

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Definitely ripe for further retrogression down the road, with the pattern moving towards Kona low and amplification towards the Aleutians.

 

Your early February call may be too late.

That could totally screw my mid Feb call and I would be THRILLED!!!! Yah!!

[Front Ranger]

Would be nice to get the January monkey off our backs.

 

Indeed. The snow monkey was cast off with the big Jan 2012 snowstorm for western WA, and the Jan 2017 snowpocalypse for the Portland area, but still way overdue for a major regional Arctic blast in January.

 

2007 was the last moderated regional Arctic event; 2004 was the last significant one, 1996 before that. 1982 was probably the last truly major January blast.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just glad I fly straight into Tulsa now instead of going into KC and driving the 3 1/2 hours. Ever since Frontier started serving Tulsa, fares have dropped dramatically, even with the other carriers, as they have to cut prices to compete. Used to be about $400-500 round trip to TUL, now its generally around $250. I was always afraid I would get caught in a winter storm on that drive, but never was.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The 12z GEFS shows a classic retrogression signal days 10 to 16. Everything is slowly coming together.

 

[TT-SEA]

Definitely ripe for further retrogression down the road, with the pattern moving towards Kona low and amplification towards the Aleutians.

 

Your early February call may be too late. 

 

 

I was just thinking that this might come during the last few days of January... but I will stick with the Feb 1-5 period for now.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Why were you flying into Kansas City rather than Oklahoma City?

 

I flew into OKC a few times, but I could typically get flights to KC for about $150 less round trip, also they were non-stop. Another thing I have learned to pay attention to is rental car tax. In KC it is extremely high, actually a bit more than the actual cost of the rental, so I was losing money on that too and didn't realize it. 

[jakeinthevalley]

Well, I have to report that the perennial ryegrass fields in the mid valley are starting to green up and start growing.

 

This is about 3 weeks ahead of schedule in most cases. Cherry blossoms around the corner

[Front Ranger]

If we get a very late Jan - early Feb snow, we will call it the The Great Tim Thrasher.

 

Or the "Justin Learns the 8-9 Lesson Again" storm.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I was just thinking that this might come during the last few days of January... but I will stick with the Feb 1-5 period for now.  

 

As long as it doesn't happen before the 29th. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

The 12z GEFS shows a classic retrogression signal days 10 to 16. Everything is slowly coming together.

 

I posted a couple of those images earlier, but it looks better as a GIF like you did.  Did you make the GIF at the Tidbits sight?  And how do you save it so it posts here?

[GHweatherChris]

This winter is going exactly how I predicted.

[Timmy]

This winter is going exactly how I predicted.

Great job man! Kudos! U rock

[TT-SEA]

54 and sunny here... 50 at SEA... and 34 and fog at OLM.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just did a quick review of SLE in January in the 2009-2018 period (10 years).

 

In that time SLE is +1.93F when compared to the long term average. But, only 0.88F above the 1981-2010 average. 

 

The only below average Januaries at SLE in that span were 2009, 2013, 2017. So in 2021 we can expect to see another below average January. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Indeed. The snow monkey was cast off with the big Jan 2012 snowstorm for western WA, and the Jan 2017 snowpocalypse for the Portland area, but still way overdue for a major regional Arctic blast in January.

 

2007 was the last moderated regional Arctic event; 2004 was the last significant one, 1996 before that. 1982 was probably the last truly major January blast.

 

Not sure when the last "major" event in Jan was for the south valley but I'm going to assume it's been a long time if you set it at 6 inches or more. Last time there was snow in Jan was in early 2017 which brought 3.8 inches on Jan 7 and a depth of 5 inches or so from the event a few days earlier. but nothing major so the monkey is still on the back down here.  December and Feb have been nice in recent years tho.

 

Haven't had a good late Jan event in a while as far as I can tell.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

54 and sunny here... 50 at SEA... and 34 and fog at OLM.   

 

Looks like PDX only dropped to 41 overnight. SLE hit 27, and EUG 24. 

 

As of 11am EUG was still 33 with fog. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not sure when the last "major" event in Jan was for the south valley but I'm going to assume it's been a long time if you set it at 6 inches or more. Last time there was snow in Jan was in early 2017 which brought 3.8 inches on Jan 7 and a depth of 5 inches or so from the event a few days earlier. but nothing major so the monkey is still on the back down here.  December and Feb have been nice in recent years tho.

 

Haven't had a good late Jan event in a while as far as I can tell.

 

Eugene had snow in January 2017 though, and of course January 2008 when everyone else had a goose egg. 

[HighlandExperience]

This winter is going exactly how I predicted.

What did you predict? Warm January always a good call in these parts. Feels like Spring outside.

[Jesse]

Looks like PDX only dropped to 41 overnight. SLE hit 27, and EUG 24.

 

As of 11am EUG was still 33 with fog.

PDX had a low of 37 early on in the night. But you probably already knew that.

 

Low of 26 for VUO (Vancouver, WA’s official station).

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Great job man! Kudos! U rock

Angry person alert!!!

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS not there in the 10-15 day period.   I think my early February call is on target still... and the models will wait another week and then start looking really good.

 

 

[Deweydog]

This winter is going exactly how I predicted.

I do remember you saying we’d be close to half way through January by the end of week two. Nice call.

[Jesse]

12Z EPS not there in the 10-15 day period. I think my early February call is on target still... and the models will wait another week and then start looking really good.

 

 

Is this some sort of really elaborate trolling? If so it’s even over my head.

[TT-SEA]

Is this some sort of really elaborate trolling? If so it’s even over my head.

Just stop with your paranoia for awhile. I am being 100% genuine with this prediction.

[Omegaraptor]

West coast warm finger.