January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[ShawniganLake]

I saw this posted on Twitter. The Met who posted it said "This is generally when you start referencing the record books lol."

 

That just shows us the magnitude of what this upcoming pattern can bring.

It’s going to be wicked out east. Hopefully we can score a couple of clear frosty mornings.

[Front Ranger]

Oh my..now that’s a block!

 

Between the SSW and low solar, it actually wouldn't surprise me to see something like that occur in the next few weeks.

 

Regardless, the real encouraging thing is that we've already seen the warm zonal pattern that dominated almost all of the Dec 10 - Jan 10 period fade away.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Now that would be funny.

 

I think what he was trying to emphasize was that this isn't just going to be an East Coast event and that everybody in the CONUS will have a chance to get in on the Arctic air.

That may be, but 1978 was NOT a coast to coast event. Unless he thinks the Dakotas are on the coast.

[Phil]

Between the SSW and low solar, it actually wouldn't surprise me to see something like that occur in the next few weeks.

 

Regardless, the real encouraging thing is that we've already seen the warm zonal pattern that dominated almost all of the Dec 10 - Jan 10 period fade away.

Yeah, that was an ugly stretch for everyone not living up at elevation or down in NC/S-VA (they got 1-2+ feet from that mid-Dec bowling ball low).

 

Funny enough, some of the most prolific Arctic blasts in recent history were preceded by blast furnace pacific jet patterns. Think 2014, 2006, 1998, 1987, 1978, 1977, etc.

[Front Ranger]

That may be, but 1978 was NOT a coast to coast event. Unless he thinks the Dakotas are on the coast.

 

Even here, there was no real impressive cold in Jan/Feb 1978. Not much snow, either.

 

BOOOOO!!!!

[El_Nina]

Seems like the first year where snow hasn't even showed up in the end of TWC's 15 day forecast!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Even here, there was no real impressive cold in Jan/Feb 1978. Not much snow, either.

 

BOOOOO!!!!

 

Maybe he was talking about January 1977 or 1979?!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold_wave_of_1978

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

[Front Ranger]

0z GFS shifts the blocking ridge days 8+ further east. Hopefully the Euro doesn't follow suit.

[Gradient Keeper]

Winter Cancel pattern for us on 00z GFS.

 

00z ECMWF in 1 hour 6 minutes

[Esquimalt]

Winter Cancel pattern for us on 00z GFS.

 

00z ECMWF in 1 hour 6 minutes

It might not be great but at least its more amplified.  

[Front Ranger]

Monster cold wave heading for Joe Bastardi at day 10.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

WCWF will be back

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Slip slidin' away

Slip slidin' away

You know the nearer your destination

The more you're slip slidin' away …

[Bryant]

Last week of January / first week of February

[luvssnow_spokane]

Now that would be funny.

I think what he was trying to emphasize was that this isn't just going to be an East Coast event and that everybody in the CONUS will have a chance to get in on the Arctic air.

In his mind nothing exists past the cascades... so kinda answers what he is thinking.

[Shawn]

Pretty bad night to be at Three Corner Rock.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=TRKW1&num=72&banner=gmap&raw=0&w=325

[Gradient Keeper]

Pretty bad night to be at Three Corner Rock.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=TRKW1&num=72&banner=gmap&raw=0&w=325

Looks nice for a midnight hike.

 

00z ECMWF in 47 minutes

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well that run didn't go so well...

[BLI snowman]

Well that run didn't go so well...

Expectations from run to run should be less than nothing, at this point.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM Day 7-10 shows potential for us with how the block retrogrades with improved tilt as shortwave digs around the block into BC. Cold air is locked up in Yukon and Northwest Territories waiting for the block to amplify.

 

https://imgur.com/um1dLLP

[Front Ranger]

CMC is quite a bit different days 9-10, with the blocking ridge much less amplified but further offshore. 

[Front Ranger]

Expectations from run to run should be less than nothing, at this point.

 

Not even sure why anyone is still looking at the models, at this point. I mean, you're not. Right?

[HighlandExperience]

In his mind nothing exists past the cascades... so kinda answers what he is thinking.

Seattle doesn’t exist in Bastardis universe.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

 

 

 

00z GEM Day 7-10 shows potential for us with how the block retrogrades with improved tilt as shortwave digs around the block into BC. Cold air is locked up in Yukon and Northwest Territories waiting for the block to amplify.

 

 

 

https://imgur.com/um1dLLP

CMC is quite a bit different days 9-10, with the blocking ridge much less amplified but further offshore.

Yeah, the GEM is holding steady with developing a ridge offshore.

[Phil]

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS Day 10-16 clear retrogression signal.

 

https://imgur.com/5rMeI8f

[Gradient Keeper]

The end of January into the 2nd week of February is our window, our chance for appreciable cold/snow. If we do not score at that point, well.... Yeah.

 

00z ECMWF in 7 mminutes

[El_Nina]

It really was still 38 this morning when I woke up

[Esquimalt]

00Z GFS ensembles are putrid.

[MossMan]

00Z GFS ensembles are putrid.

Actually look a tad better in the long range than the 18z...anyway...

[Esquimalt]

Actually look a tad better in the long range than the 18z...anyway...

I think the retrogression is coming...it’s just when that’s the big question.

[ShawniganLake]

00Z GFS ensembles are putrid.

1 real pretty member takes the arctic plunge.

[Esquimalt]

1 real pretty member takes the arctic plunge.

Lucky number 02.

[El_Nina]

Snowpack is plummeting

[ShawniganLake]

Just for fun Thunder Bay Ontario. Coldest member drops to -45C

 

[Deweydog]

There's also a reason everyone calls you Mr. Above It All!

Just as there’s a reason flatironing is called flatironing. We all got our things.

[BLI snowman]

Not even sure why anyone is still looking at the models, at this point. I mean, you're not. Right?

Not really. It's kind of nice.

[Front Ranger]

Just as there’s a reason flatironing is called flatironing. We all got our things.

Yep. No one is above the rest.