January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

Looks like the ensemble mean starts it sooner than the operational.

 

Yeah. Significant improvement with the GEFS.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Something brewing...

[BLI snowman]

Something brewing...

BNEF

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Looks like the ensemble mean starts it sooner than the operational.

Yeah, best GEFS run to date.

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Could you post the Seattle link so I could bookmark

Tropical Tidbits, use the ensembles instead of the model. The link from before was the Euro, just type in your city

[Front Ranger]

I don’t trust the CMC or its ensembles at all right now. Not until the MJO reaches the IPWP (in ~ 1 week) will it lose the bias to project large scale subsidence east of the dateline.

 

But do you trust in Tim's feverish predictions?

[Phil]

D13 GEFS.

 

Looks like the EPS.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[MossMan]

37.6 outside and 70.1 inside currently.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Could you post the Seattle link so I could bookmark

https://weather.us/forecast/ensemble

 

Type in your city. Scroll right for all 15 days. Has the range, what the mean is, etc

[Phil]

But do you trust in Tim's feverish predictions?

I think so.

 

The only reason I’m still somewhat reserved is because the CFSv2 is on board, and I can’t remember the last time that model didn’t predict the exact opposite of what actually happened. It’s actually scary.

[Gradient Keeper]

As others mentioned, substantial improvement with the 00z GEFS and strong retrogression. Now, let's see the ECMWF op improve and EPS continue showing this AND move timing ahead. We must see timing move forward.

 

6z GFS in 3 hours 34 minutes

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

WOW. MAJOR ensemble improvement.

[Gradient Keeper]

Wow. Yakima ensembles. DRAMATIC improvement for cold air into the Eastern Washington/Columbia Basin

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Yakima_USA_ens.png

[Phil]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Nobody say a god dam thing.

[snow_wizard]

Wow. Yakima ensembles. DRAMATIC improvement for cold air into the Eastern Washington/Columbia Basin

 

 

Holy crap there are some cold members there!  Even Seattle has several that go below -10.

[Bryant]

Nobody say a god dam thing.

Already requested time off and scheduled a date night with Brennan

[SilverFallsAndrew]

FV-3 isn't quite there, but its an improvement. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Deweydog]

This is the dawning of the age of Aquarius.

[MossMan]

This is the dawning of the age of Aquarius.

Thanks for that...it’s now fully entrenched in my head.

[Deweydog]

Really really sux the Euro only goes to 240 hours. That’s practically a nowcast...

 

Pathetic.

[Requiem]

Really really sux the Euro only goes to 240 hours. That’s practically a nowcast...

 

Pathetic.

EURO should go to 3400 hours, so we can really get the accurate forecasts. Range now is way too short, it’s almost like looking at the radar. EURO should take a page from the CFS, which is the most accurate winter model out there.

[Deweydog]

EURO should go to 3400 hours, so we can really get the accurate forecasts. Range now is way too short, it’s almost like looking at the radar. EURO should take a page from the CFS, which is the most accurate winter model out there.

Atta boy!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It's coming...

 

[Bryant]

Atta boy!

He quite literally could be your boy

[TigerWoodsLibido]

It's coming...

 

Gonna unload all over us. Now to get it inside of 300 hrs.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EURO looking nice and amplified. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EURO looking nice and amplified.

 

Yeah we could be in business...

[Deweydog]

He quite literally could be your boy

Easily. I highly doubt he is though.

[Deweydog]

Everybody lace up your extrapolation boots!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EURO looks primed for retrogression. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Wow. The amplification and cross polar flow on 00z ECMWF is what dreams are made of.... Dreams of hot chicks, pizza, and endless arctic blasts. Amazing potential ahead. The most I've seen in days.

 

6z GFS in 2 hours 26 minutes! HOLY PANCAKES!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Wow. The amplification and cross polar flow on 00z ECMWF is what dreams are made of.... Dreams of hot chicks, pizza, and endless arctic blasts. Amazing potential ahead. The most I've seen in days.

 

6z GFS in 2 hours 26 minutes! HOLY PANCAKES!

What a way to finish the day! This is just the beginning.....

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Pelican and some home-grown snow bud for night shift. What about everybody else?

[Gradient Keeper]

Leftover Boboli homemade Pizza, Raspberry Lemonade, and some Testament for music.

 

6z GFS in 2 hours 17 minutes

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Pelican and some home-grown snow bud for night shift. What about everybody else?

Dutch Bros and Buffalo Wings!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This is the dawning of the age of Aquarius.

Let the sunshine let the sunshine in.