January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Gradient Keeper]

.... and lastly Day 10 looks like

 

[Omegaraptor]

Southern OR has an air stagnation advisory. We also have very low windspeeds but there is no air stagnation advisory.

[Jesse]

What does it matter how he wrote it? If he meant it to be a town he would have added a comma, he didn't...

Talking about a very rainy climate was his first mistake.

[GHweatherChris]

Talking about a very rainy climate was his first mistake.

True

[ChilliwackBCwx]

06Z GFS night shift I feel the winds of change with this run!

[ChilliwackBCwx]

Hour 78 already different from the 00Z GFS chillier air into B.C. low pressure out in Pacific is shunted further north, I guess that cut off low is a problem at hour 90, hour 108 we need that high north of Hawaii to get off it's arse and do something, Hmmmm...hour 114 need that low over the Yukon to slide south along the B.C. coast! merging high to far west. If I'm not doing play by play correctly let me know maybe someone see's it different. Hour 126 Alberta clipper doesn't help us but cut off low in pacific stays further south though. Hour 138 what's with all these lows that just pop up in the GOA annoying. Hr. 150 low pressure over southeast central Alaska move south baby! Hr. 156 I see potential, better run than the 00Z FWIW, out to Hr 162 I mean. Whoa that low is digging down the B.C. coast! at Hr. 168! Hr. 180 low sliding in to far north but the Yukon high bears watching, trough forming off the coast! loving Hr. 192! look at Hr 198 too very close. Loving hour 210 as well looks like arctic air moving southward at least!

[Gradient Keeper]

6z entirely different than 00z and is progressing quite a bit like the decent 00z GEM last night. Hmmm.

 

Day 7

[Requiem]

Decent east winds look possible Monday, actually.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8 is such a tease

[Gradient Keeper]

Decent east winds look possible Monday, actually.

Yeah, for sure. Did you see my 00z WRF-GFS post last night?

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8-9. Look what lurks to the north. C'MON!!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Please. PLEASE. P L E A S E show some ensemble support for this!

[Requiem]

Yeah, for sure. Did you see my 00z WRF-GFS post last night?

 

Just looked back, looks nice. EURO doesn't seem to get it, but then again it doesn't handle these events well. NAM is on board!

[Requiem]

Please. PLEASE. P L E A S E show some ensemble support for this!

 

Wow, 06Z revitalizes hope. Just shows how badly models are handling a complex situation.

[ChilliwackBCwx]

Please. PLEASE. P L E A S E show some ensemble support for this!

Oh man hour 216 Arctic air beginning to stream out of the Fraser valley! look at the gradients Arctic high in the B.C, interior to good to be true! HR 222 strong gradients moving into north Puget sound!

[Gradient Keeper]

It's nice seeing a run like this and it sets up inside Day 7 which is even more of a tease.

[ChilliwackBCwx]

Hr, 240 cold air in place looks like a shortwave moving south from the B.C. interior possible another reload over the Yukon with a low off the southeast Alaska coast maybe a slider I love how that cutoff low is pushed back towards Hawaii. That's as far as my play by play will go to Hour 240 and that's already hitting fantasy land but my oh my, if it falls apart I quit looking at models again till next winter. Thanks for letting me do some play by play guy's I'm not as good as you guy's but I try after learning from the best DJ and others, cheers from B.C. hope for consistency now with the models.

[Gradient Keeper]

Block reorganizes after Day 10 for more fun. If only.....

[ChilliwackBCwx]

Block reorganizes after Day 10 for more fun. If only.....

Yup, more potential there but don't get hung up on that it's a way's off it's the stuff in the 7 day range that we need to verify.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z Ensembles improved significantly AND the 500mb pattern is close to being very good with a block offshore and stout southeast ridge too. After the first ridge slides inland Day 6-7 the ridge/block develops and strengthens near 150 W. It is not undercut. That's a big development. Just need some minor adjustments particularly with amplification of the block. Hmmm....

[Gradient Keeper]

6z even ratcheted up the east winds just one notch stronger than 00z. Wow.

[Requiem]

6z even ratcheted up the east winds just one notch stronger than 00z. Wow.

 

Interesting...

 

As the GFS is hardly an accurate representation of wind gusts, what would you estimate gusts in the Gorge to be?

[Gradient Keeper]

Interesting...

 

As the GFS is hardly an accurate representation of wind gusts, what would you estimate gusts in the Gorge to be?

If the WRF is correct and then ramp that up one more notch, 70-80mph. 100+ crown point after the downslope transitions to gap flow.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GFS Ensembles - As I mentioned rather dramatic improvement noted. For PDX we now have a cluster of members dipping below -5c to -8c. Not bad. For Seattle a notch colder yet. It's not where we want to be yet, but we now have a modest signal for backdoor cold air. There are still too many warm members(0c to +5c) and hopefully we'll see those cool on future runs. It's certainly possible the 6z is an outlier, but who knows maybe this is the start of a potential more favorable pattern for Cold and SNOW!!!! Cautiously optimistic.

 

Portland

 

Seattle

 

Vancouver BC

 

12z GFS in 3 hours 36 minutes

[MossMan]

Thanks for the night shift work guys! Very interesting developments on the 6z...come on 12z!

[Gradient Keeper]

Thanks for the night shift work guys! Very interesting developments on the 6z...come on 12z!

No problem. It was nice to see a great Op run and then to back it up with the ensembles shifting like that. Nice. Yeah. C'MON 12z!!!!

 

12z ECMWF in 5 hours 47 minutes

[ChilliwackBCwx]

Thanks for posting the Vancouver ensembles too, just a question what's with the FV3? why is it always way off on it's own what's it's purpose going to be? I've been looking at it all winter and going what is it on crack.  Thanks in advance.

[El_Nina]

We can only hope

[TT-SEA]

Talking about a very rainy climate was his first mistake.

 

 

I would have made the same comment about Leeward Hawaii.   

[Timmy]

Tim is taking this publicity stunt too far with the 06z

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Renewed hope!!!

[ShawniganLake]

WTF

[Omegaraptor]

Frost on the ground in Beaverton.

[Tyler Mode]

BRRRRRRR 33 this morning.  Almost freezing wow.

[luvssnow_spokane]

6z GFS Ensembles - As I mentioned rather dramatic improvement noted. For PDX we now have a cluster of members dipping below -5c to -8c. Not bad. For Seattle a notch colder yet. It's not where we want to be yet, but we now have a modest signal for backdoor cold air. There are still too many warm members(0c to +5c) and hopefully we'll see those cool on future runs. It's certainly possible the 6z is an outlier, but who knows maybe this is the start of a potential more favorable pattern for Cold and SNOW!!!! Cautiously optimistic.

 

Portland

 

Seattle

 

Vancouver BC

 

12z GFS in 3 hours 36 minutes

I’m going to double down, betting on green and blue. Bring it!!

[Esquimalt]

12Z GFS so far similar to the 06Z except a little less amplified.  I feel it's gonna get to the goodies albeit a little later. 

[Timmy]

12z looks more like 06z than the 00z. Not as good but following the same trend

[Esquimalt]

That ridge is a little close to the coast for my liking. I don't think this is gonna end well 

[ShawniganLake]

That ridge is a little close to the coast for my liking. I don't think this is gonna end well

Nope. Kona low is weaker and split. Ridge less amplified. Cold air is going to be cutoff and shoved east.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

We had a model shift overnight. I like to compare the 12z to the 00z major difference.