Gradient Keeper Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 1-30-19 2:40 PM [Model Countdown]Next up....00z NAM in 3 hours 1 minute (5:41 PM) Later this evening....00z GFS in 4 hours 47 minutes (7:27 PM)00z GEM/CMC in 5 hours 10 minutes (7:50 PM)00z ECMWF in 7 hours 5 minutes (9:45 PM) Think Cold and SNOW!!!!❄ ❄ ☃ ❄ ❄ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Night shift gon be a party tonight! 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 We waited ALL Winter for this. Soak it in. Enjoy it. C'MON!!! Cold and SNOW!!!!All the hard work. All those late nights. All those sleepless nights. All those detailed model analysis. All those maps. This is what it's all about. As much as it's about the final destination, it's also about the journey. There's been ups and downs but we are still standing. We all deserve to get a big snowstorm and hopefully that will happen. Let's go Cold and Snow! ❄ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 6” at my place if I remember correctly!You are like the rain man of snow events! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Yeah, the attempted associations to climate change by some sources are annoying. But honestly, I've seen several news articles referencing the "split" in the polar vortex (like this one), which may not be Phil-tastic enough from a scientific perspective, but is basically accurate. Seems like less hype than winter 2013-14, when the media first started using the term. So I'll give them some credit this time around.Been a lot of social media warriors trying to dispel myths that this cold wave attacks climate change alarmists at the core. They’re running with the fact this cold is the result of “warming.” Idiots vs. idiots. I think the idiots will take it. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Been a lot of social media warriors trying to dispel myths that this cold wave attacks climate change alarmists at the core. They’re running with the fact this cold is the result of “warming.” Idiots vs. idiots. I think the idiots will take it. Sudden Catastrophic Warming. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 So close to a backdoor blast in the clown range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 So close to a backdoor blast in the clown range. So much more to focus on in the near term... as opposed to the long range 18Z GFS. The EPS shows it will stay cold all the way through the first half of February so I would worry too much about the clown range. Its very likely that it will trend colder and the time approaches... much like what is happening now with the first round. The EPS has been a consistent backdrop of cold and its proving to be correct. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 FV3 now showing a secondary, 992 mb low developing off of Central Vancouver Island late sunday morning. Interesting. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 #keep300hoursrelevant Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 #keep300hoursrelevant#ModelRidingLivesMatter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prairiedog Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 So close to a backdoor blast in the clown range.We've waited so long to get outside the clown range, it's really nice to finally get to focus on something that might be close to imminent. Way too much CR, not enough "within 4 days". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 We've waited so long to get outside the clown range, it's really nice to finally get to focus on something that might be close to imminent. Way too much CR, not enough "within 4 days". Yeah it is really nice to not have to look wishfully at a 300+ hr map. Honestly we haven't even had much eye candy in the clown range this winter until more recently. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 My wife just asked AGAIN. She’s now convinced there will not be school on Monday. Sorry. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 My wife just asked AGAIN. She’s now convinced there will not be school on Monday. Sorry. She is correct! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prairiedog Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 My wife just asked AGAIN. She’s now convinced there will not be school on Monday. Sorry.Portland Public Schools saw that it was going to snow in Atlanta so they're gonna close now for sure. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 FV3 speeds things up further, and also goes further west. We've reached the point where we definitely want that trend to stop. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 FV3 speeds things up further, and also goes further west. We've reached the point where we definitely want that trend to stop. What could happen if we keep going west? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 What could happen if we keep going west? MILLIONS OF PEOPLE DROWN!!! Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 My wife just asked AGAIN. She’s now convinced there will not be school on Monday. Sorry. my wife is convinced she will have school on Monday insisting that university of Portland never cancels. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 What could happen if we keep going west? Too much ocean influence, moderated temps. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 FV3 speeds things up further, and also goes further west. We've reached the point where we definitely want that trend to stop.I’ve got Raj all over it! He once stopped the world from spinning to fast Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prairiedog Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 What could happen if we keep going west?Cold rain Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Yeah when looking at history the best snow events for Puget Sound region going into a Arctic Intrusion scenario always have a double barrel low. The best one I can ever remember was from elementary school. They had to close early and it took a couple hours to get home via bus for just a 3.5 mile ride. It was 85 or so. I can't remember the year exactly nor the month... But all I can vouch for is the roads were compact snow and ice and even the manhole covers accumulated snow which means it had to be at least 7 degrees below freezing. It lasted for at least a week cold... So that maybe a clue to help nail down which event it was from the 80's. There was snow up in the Mukilteo Everett area that started way ahead of schedule due to the notorious convergence zone.FV3 now showing a secondary, 992 mb low developing off of Central Vancouver Island late sunday morning. Interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 The 18z FV3 is showing the possibility of a second round of snow Thursday night into Friday morning. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bodhijr Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Just ran 1" pex from a new well to my house. Its still in a open ditch 2 feet deep, I wasn't going to insulate it this week but maybe i should. Looking a bit nippy in Skamania county soon! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 30, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 I hope this doesn’t become a Seattle (or Portland/Valley) only event, I’d like a little storm for the whole area for once. Though the trends do seem to favor more northerly areas thus far. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 The 18z FV3 is showing the possibility of a second round of snow Thursday night into Friday morning. 12Z ECMWF showed almost the exact same set up. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 My wife wanted to know if this will be a situation where its raining just below us and snowing here all week. I told her there will be no rain after Saturday... and it will either be snowing or dry and will probably be beautiful wintry postcard scene type of week here. That made her feel better. She does not like when we are buried in snow and its raining everywhere else because nobody has sympathy for her being late. But if there is even an inch of snow in Bellevue then everyone panics and is late for work or they don't show up at all. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 FV3 through Monday night. Keep in mind the resolution is pretty low on these. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 12Z ECMWF showed almost the exact same set up.Yeah. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 00z GFS in 3 hours 24 minutes! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 31, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2019 Quite a few GFS ensemble members are showing a healthy dose of snow at the end of next week. Included KPDX as well. e-12 has been known to be the most accurate, so I'm going with that one. But this event in general seems more favorable for Seattle for sure. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 31, 2019 Report Share Posted January 31, 2019 Kind of funny that the operational GFS is now colder than the FV-3 for early next week. Mid-range ensembles trended cooler and looks like about half the members want to develop troughing again around mid-month after a brief warm up. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prairiedog Posted January 31, 2019 Report Share Posted January 31, 2019 The 18z FV3 is showing the possibility of a second round of snow Thursday night into Friday morning. It's almost impossible to predict snowfall or amounts within a day. I cant count the number of times it didn't materialize until it materialized. Trying to figure out if it's gonna snow next week is fun if your tracking the % of how these near clown range snow forecasts turn out. Your odds of this forecast coming true is probably less than 1%. Yea, it might happen. Even a blind squirrrel finds a nut once in a while. I wouldn't put much energy into it coming to fruition. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 31, 2019 Report Share Posted January 31, 2019 My wife is convinced that there will be no snow next week. It will be all her fault if things trend too far west or east. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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