Minny_Weather Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Yes and no. I am not a meteorologist but my old man is and he has never had an issue with it. Plus I am not a fan of meteorologist slamming people for sharing information that you can find in a blink of an eye. Personal opinion though.Nothing wrong with amateur weather accounts, I used to run one. But when you make predictions 5 days out, and said predictions are either the highest model outputs or even above those, that's when there's a problem. 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Nothing wrong with amateur weather accounts, I used to run one. But when you make predictions 5 days out, and said predictions are either the highest model outputs or even above those, that's when there's a problem.Agree one should show the range of possibilities, but that means giving people a heads up and updating how it plays out. I think people should know sooner. The last storm I was talking to some guy at the gas station that morning. He had no idea it was even going to snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Agree one should show the range of possibilities, but that means giving people a heads up and updating how it plays out. I think people should know sooner. The last storm I was talking to some guy at the gas station that morning. He had no idea it was even going to snow. That's not what he's doing though. What he's doing is taking the upper 1% of the envelope and posting it on social media disguised as a forecast. At which point it's nothing more than hypecasting and serves no use other than to mislead the public. What he needs to be doing is toss the snowfall maps and provide good, solid analysis along with a qualitative map showing where the heaviest axis falls. Within 24-48hrs you can disclose an amounts map. But at 5 days out and forecasting higher than any of the deterministic models had been showing is... just no - dont do that. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 That's not what he's doing though. What he's doing is taking the upper 1% of the envelope and posting it on social media disguised as a forecast. At which point it's nothing more than hypecasting and serves no use other than to mislead the public. What he needs to be doing is toss the snowfall maps and provide good, solid analysis along with a qualitative map showing where the heaviest axis falls. Within 24-48hrs you can disclose an amounts map. But at 5 days out and forecasting higher than any of the deterministic models had been showing is... just no - dont do that.+1,000 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Nam looks to be alot faster with the storm now. The northern piece of energy really looks sad too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Okay what in the world it dives the low into Mexico. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Nam looks to be alot faster with the storm now. The northern piece of energy really looks sad too. Yeah that was a really nasty run. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 00z NAM is drunk toss it out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Yeah that was a really nasty run.Yeah going to be sad if the nam lets me down. Next to the euro it's been spot on this year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Okay what in the world it dives the low into Mexico. Yeah, that seems to be the trend. It's like the energy moves into the west and then falls into a hole. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Icon is way different than the NAM at 69 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 16, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 15/12z Euro @96 has really sharpened the trough at h5. Nice look and moves more northerly than prior runs. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 16, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Old news Ik, but 15/18z GEFS really likes my FWA to KTOL (and was quite an uptick in qpf across the board fwiw) 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Okay now that I can actually see the icon, that is quite a bit different. It really developed the north energy. Still fast but stronger. Also showing warm before the storm which is odd. Cold air does not seem to be issue this time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Icon is way different than the NAM at 69Snow even up this way. You’re baby steppin’ towards a nice hit. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Icon though 102 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Icon though 102 That is quite the screwzone there. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 16, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Icon though 102 I swear to all I can not remember such a wide swath (S to N) in my life as I'm seeing portrayed on some of these snowfall maps. And that includes the GEFS of all things. #wild Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 16, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Icon though 102 Stach run Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 16, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Snippit from LOT pm AFD The synoptic ingredients for this setup are potentially explosive,signified well by the numerous historic regional winter storms onthe CIPS analog list. A few of the questions at still several daysout are: position of initial fgen driven snow Friday evening;strength and track of primary Pacific borne short-wave; lobe oftropospheric PV centered over Hudson Bay that could interact withor phase with main southern S/W; and resulting from the above twoitems the surface low track and strength into Saturday that willhelp determine how much snow falls. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Gfs is weak and south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 GFS doesn't have a screwzone on the 00z. Unless you consider the screwzone to be pretty much area wide as it's a weak piece of junk. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 This storm is getting more disappointing with every run. Looking more like a 2-4” storm now. Blegghhh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 I guess there is a wee bit of solace in the sense that GHD 2015 did literally the same thing. Trended to junk in the D3-D4 range and came back and dropped a wide swath of 10"+. Especially since there's still heavy ensemble support for a stronger system. Well there was... Let's see what the 00z ens do I guess. 5 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 The 0z King should be exciting given the other recent model runs. No need to panic yet unless the King blinks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Considering the fact that I did not see any snow at all during the entire month of December, I will be glad to see any snow from this system. Even if it just ends up being a 2-4 inch event. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 No need to panic until this gets sampled and where it comes ashore in the Pac NW. Models had been so consistent, you had to expect some swings eventually. Just because a model suite run isn't great, doesn't mean it's the end all. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 I will agree with everyone the GFS was a big let down lol. The ICON model for what its worth... 2 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 At this point I’ll be happy with snow on the ground. No matter what. Good news is it Michigan here, it’s by a warm Big lake. And there is cold coming. So no doubt it will be white. A nice snowstorm would be the cherry on top. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Cmc is south for us in Nebraska but is good for points to our Southeast 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 At this point I’ll be happy with snow on the ground. No matter what. Good news is it Michigan here, it’s by a warm Big lake. And there is cold coming. So no doubt it will be white. A nice snowstorm would be the cherry on top.A lot less cold on these recent 0Z runs. At least through the weekend. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Still looks Iike a big storm on the 22nd 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 GEM came in north and stronger. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 I know we take each run seriously but we cannot cave to a bad model run or two.lots of time left before the storm even hits and I still belive that this will be a bigger storm then currently modeled. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 A lot less cold on these recent 0Z runs. At least through the weekend. I noticed that, too. There has been a lot of talk about a super cold NFL game on Sunday in KC, with a high temp in the single digits. However, this evening's 00z GFS run has the temp in the 20s. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Ukmet stayed south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 If anyone can post the UKMET precip maps past HR 72 that would be awesome. UK HR 72 precip coverage looks very similar to the GFS. Thanks in advance. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 GEFS took a massive dump. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 00z UK 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 guidance is really trying to show that wedge "screw zone" -- It seems to be getting larger from run to run. I'd be somewhat shocked if the EURO for my location doesn't continue the trend of declining QPF. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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