Jan. 22nd-23rd Winter Storm

[james1976]

Schnack still has T-3" for CR and IC with 3-6" across N IA

[Hawkeye]

Hawkeye, do you have that link??

 

This will be a good storm to see how this model performs.

 

https://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=area

[hlcater]

FWIW the ARW, NMMB and NSSL are all colder, slower and drier than their 12z runs. Some still bring a slug of significant snow across much of E IA(probably dropping 3-6") but given the dry air present at the onset, they wont be having any widespread heavy totals I wouldn't think . I lied, all 3 have a swath of 6-8". Where the mixing line sets up varies, but the ARW is warmer than the NMMB and NSSL. What is notable is that they still have snow in the area early tomorrow morning. (11-13z)

[Wartburger]

Looking into the chat rooms now for DVN and MKX..lots of activity...trying out whether or not to delay the inveitable at this point.

How do you get into the chat rooms?

[gabel23]

00z GFS-FV3 also much slower, but not farther south... surface low still lifts up into southeast Iowa.

 

Holy cow that one buries me; even half that would be 6+. I think the trend on tonight is a slower and more pronounced band moving through. Gonna all come down to luck with that band. Fwi dean wysocki has mentioned the change in models via social media.

[Minny_Weather]

Yeah the temperature has not risen at all since the afternoon. I have a hard time believing we'll make it up to 30. 21.6°F.

[james1976]

Still only 13 at the surface here

[james1976]

Gonna have to be some warm air aloft to have any mixing issues here

[gosaints]

Still only 13 at the surface here

Its obviously going to be colder/sout of previous thoughts, but with the slower solution WAA will be behind as well.  Either way its good news for Iowa 

[Minny_Weather]

Dean Wysocki is the first met here to break from the "Norfolk will get the highest amounts" mob.

[East Dubzz]

12 degrees here.

 

Sorry, just wanted to fit in.

[jcwxguy]

Dean Wysocki is the first met here to break from the "Norfolk will get the highest amounts" mob.

what's he saying

[Minny_Weather]

what's he saying

Basically verbatim what the 00Z NAM is saying except a bit less bullish on the amounts.

[Madtown]

local Mets going with 4-7.

[GDR]

Yeah it’s the fv3, you have a better chance of throwing dog poop in the air and predicting where it lands then the fv3 does in predicting snow!

[Grizzcoat]

CMC having issues tonight or what?

[Hawkeye]

All three local mets now mentioning a possible south shift of the snow.

[james1976]

Schnack just said their 3-6 may be adjusted south to CR due to latest models.

[Bryan1117]

Local mets here in Omaha are all adjusting their snow forecasts with the heaviest band further south as the new model data is showing - with 3 to 6 inches of snow lined up along Interstate 80 in Nebraska from Lincoln to Omaha, with higher amounts possible. This is getting fun! 

[gosaints]

CMC having issues tonight or what?

only have the god awful black white maps, but not as far south with everything as the nams

[gabel23]

Local mets here in Omaha are all adjusting their snow forecasts with the heaviest band further south as the new model data is showing - with 3 to 6 inches of snow lined up along Interstate 80 in Nebraska from Lincoln to Omaha, with higher amounts possible. This is getting fun!

What they showing back towards Columbus?

[gosaints]

The other fun thing to watch is going to be how the backside develops tomorrow night.

[ToastedRavs]

Local mets in Des Moines verbally mentioned possibilities of more snow. Said tune in on the morning shows. One in the weather field professionally should always be checking latest conditions/models/reports. That's Weather 101. Too lazy and dependent on NWS. I award them no points and respect them less

[james1976]

only have the god awful black white maps, but not as far south with everything as the nams

They should get rid of that b&w mess. I don't bother

[East Dubzz]

The other fun thing to watch is going to be how the backside develops tomorrow night.

Love looking at the backside. Especially a bigger one that has developed well.

[Grizzcoat]

03Z RAP 10:1- the kuchera is higher.

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=sn10_acc&rh=2019012203&fh=39&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

[Stormhunter87]

03Z RAP 10:1- the kuchera is higher.

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=sn10_acc&rh=2019012203&fh=39&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

Wow that's even further south of here now.

[Stormhunter87]

Wowt going 2-4 possible 6 now.

[james1976]

[jcwxguy]

Ukie slightly south and stronger, will be interesting to see precipitation maps later

[Minny_Weather]

All the Lincoln mets besides Wysocki aren't buying any drastic South shifts and continue to forecast the highest amounts well North of here.

[Minny_Weather]

Local mets in Des Moines verbally mentioned possibilities of more snow. Said tune in on the morning shows. One in the weather field professionally should always be checking latest conditions/models/reports. That's Weather 101. Too lazy and dependent on NWS. I award them no points and respect them less

The non-chief mets here love to just simply regurgitate what the NWS says. I honestly question their credentials sometimes. They just say what the NWS is saying verbatim and nothing more. I saw that on one of our channels here tonight. The forecast map was literally WPC's with a couple minor tweaks. 

[Stormhunter87]

All the Lincoln mets besides Wysocki aren't buying any drastic South shifts and continue to forecast the highest amounts well North of here.

Omaha ones are starting to bite but keeping totals low.

[Grizzcoat]

ukie much better than 12Z  ( precip wise)- though the 12Z was a real dud.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Wow, the fv3 gfs is absolutely insane for eastern Nebraska. No way anyone gets 18 inches lol. I could see 4-7 inches isolated 8 inches in the heaviest band.

[jcwxguy]

CMC south as well but sfc, but not with qpf

[gosaints]

CMC south as well

north end of guidance

[Hawkeye]

00z Canadian is farther south, but it has been the farthest north.  This run still takes the low through southeast Iowa and brings rain up to near Cedar Rapids.

 

00z UK pretty far south, tracks the low from central MO to Quincy to Chicago.  It actually has the heaviest precip southeast of Cedar Rapids.  I never thought I'd have to hope for no further shift south.

 

[jcwxguy]

CMC is crazy for ne iowa

[Money]

Gem throwing out 16-18 inch amounts in IA