GDR Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 Looks north also a tad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 Basically goes back to it’s 06z solution. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 996 L in NE IA at hr 90 3 mb stronger than 18z 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 So all 18z model runs so far have bumped north/east. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 3mb stronger SLP, which is probably why it ends up further north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 Rain in central ia Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 3mb stronger SLP, which is probably why it ends up further north.And the high to the east is further east. Combo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 Still pretty juiced up, but not quite as much as the 12z run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 Not it matters too much this far out, but I think that run would have given me mostly (if not all) snow. Only issue I’d foresee in that scenario is a dry slot from the SLP heading right over my area. Would be better than rain, at least. Like I said before, the storm itself is still a good amount away. However, we’re probably going to get a good idea of the track this storm will take when it’s in Canada, which is obviously closer in the timeframe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 Come on, just keep going south. GFS has gone from north to south to north. Other models seem more consient at least. Whatever happens, I just don't want rain from this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 8-12 from Minnesota almost all of southern WI etc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 3mb stronger SLP, which is probably why it ends up further north.I always thought they said with clippers a stronger SLP would drive the low further SW. But maybe I made that up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 I always thought they said with clippers a stronger SLP would drive the low further SW. But maybe I made that up.I guess I could see that, because the system may dig more. I could be making that up too. I was just thinking that the storm being stronger allows it to cut across the snowpack with more ease. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 I guess I could see that, because the system may dig more. I could be making that up too. I was just thinking that the storm being stronger allows it to cut across the snowpack with more ease.gonna depend on where the baro zone sets up.and the strength on the surface will effect that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 The GFS has not had the hot hand lately. Wouldn’t discard it, but I also wouldn’t lose sleep over it. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 The GFS has not had the hot hand lately. Wouldn’t discard it, but I also wouldn’t lose sleep over it.Probably shouldn’t lose sleep over it anyway Well, I take that back. I do lose sleep when I’m tracking storms. So I guess I’m going to lose sleep either way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 You guys are stressing 96 hours out. Crack a beer and relax amigos. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 You guys are stressing 96 hours out. Crack a beer and relax amigos.I’m plenty relaxed my friend! I’ve finally got some good snow, so missing on this storm wouldn’t bother me even close to as much as it would have just a little over a week ago. Just glad to actually have an interesting pattern to watch! I have a rec league basketball game tonight, though, so I may have to wait a few hours before cracking open a cold one 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 Dvn throwing out a foot of snow wording. Sign me up. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 Schnack mentioned snow likely...several inches.. Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 Dvn throwing out a foot of snow wording. Sign me up. GRR pm disco saying recent guidance has it missing SWMI. What planet are they on? CPC today buys into a storm. Interesting they have Chicago shut-out of the good swath. I'm sure this will look different with Friday's release.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakjen Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 Here is the DVN text Sunday night and Monday: Next in the hit parade is a significantsnowstorm with the potential for accumulations of 6+ inches andstrong winds. There is the potential for a foot of snow but too soonto tell the axis of the heaviest snow band. Models indicate a 50knot LLJ impinging on a very tight thermal gradient, suggesting verystrong upward motion. The latest run of the GFS/ECMWF has come infarther south with the track of the surface low, with the ECMWFtaking the low across far northern MO. This puts much of the cwasquarely in a significant snowstorm. Temperatures will moderate withhighs in the teens north and 20s south. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 The Sat/Sun wave is faster on the Nam this run. Allows the next one more room to go east Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 The Sat/Sun wave is faster on the Nam this run. Allows the next one more room to go east[/quote? NAMING/NAMLY. In all honesty when we get in range the NAM should perform decently with this setup Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 GB AFD mentioning 18-24 hours of LE could happen along the western shoreline in WI Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 GB AFD mentioning 18-24 hours of LE could happen along the western shoreline in WIburying potential Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 A lot of people on here would like the icon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 A lot of people on here would like the iconLock it in? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 Loving that pivot action on the NAM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 NAM and ICON both showing some really nice ratios NAM has 5 inches of snow on 0.2 qpf here with temps in the single digits Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 Icon is not warm either Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 I think it was yesterday that MPX referenced a CIPS analog from a very similar storm in December 2000 when the TC got 7.5” of snow on 0.25” of qpf. Given the cold air in place this storm could do the same, somewhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 Loving that pivot action on the NAM. I 2nd that 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 Gfs will probably be a good bit south this run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 Gfs will probably be a good bit south this runSlightly further south this run, but doesn’t appear to be too much thus far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 A little S and W in IA-- a little. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 Still a pretty nice run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 Looks good for CR on this run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 Gem looks like the gfs track wise as well Seems like all four models so far in decent agreement 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 00z GFS... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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