Jan 27th-29th Strong Hybrid Clipper

[Grizzcoat]

Euro has .70+qpf for MSN.

[Grizzcoat]

near .70qpf at ORD - any slight switch there will mess with thermals

[Money]

Euro has .70+qpf for MSN.

Looks like it bumped North from 12z though right?

[Grizzcoat]

I haven't been total into this system since mby is outta of it- but it appears so maybe more E than N

[Iowawx]

I haven't been total into this system since mby is outta of it- but it appears so maybe more E than N

How does it look for Eastern Iowa?

[Grizzcoat]

[james1976]

Its more north and east from 12z by a little

[East Dubzz]

Its more north and east from 12z by a little

Yeah. Not a huge shift, but definitely a shift NE. I’m fine with the current track. I’d prefer it further south, but you’re not gonna win every storm. Just want a little snow at least. Guess we’ll see what tomorrow brings. Hopefully nothing further north!

[Grizzcoat]

It's currently -28F at Black River Falls,WI. Amazing that in such a short amount of time they will go to 12-18" of snow and many other locations currently hovering around 0 to -10F in Central to E.IA will see a mix or even more rain than a mix.

[GDR]

So Chicago gets 12 or a couple of inches?

[dubuque473]

WSW and 5” here says DVN.

[Money]

9-12 inches projected here so far

 

Green Bay AFD mentioning 15+ totals isnt out of the question but their not that confident going that high

[Tom]

WSW's issued for the norther tier of counties and LOT seems to be favoring the north solutions which make sense at this point.  This is going to pack one hellova punch for Wisco peeps, esp those near the Lake.

 

 

 

Sunday through Friday...

A period of active significant winter weather is in store across the
area through the period, with a focus on both an approaching winter
storm Sunday night into Monday, and a period of extreme cold Tuesday
through Thursday.

Sunday night and Monday: A strong mid-level trough currently on the
northwest flank of an impressive ridge along the West Coast will
reach northern British Columbia this evening, then dig SE into the
northern Great Plains Sunday afternoon. The trough will then pivot
around the SW fringe of a long-wave trough across the eastern 2/3 of
Canada Sunday night through Monday night. An associated surface low
will track from central ND to northeast IA early Sunday evening,
then pivot across far southern WI through Monday morning before
reaching central Lower MI by Monday evening. The 00Z guidance has
come into much better agreement with this track. The farther south
solution of the 12Z ECMWF was an outlier among most guidance, and
even somewhat among its 00Z runs on Friday and today. Therefore,
this forecast supports higher confidence on a more northern blend
with the system.

A band of WAA-forced snow will likely shift NE across the CWA during
the early to mid-evening Sunday, with around an inch of snow
possible for the north half of the CWA. A fairly strong and stacked
low-level FGen band along the low-level baroclinic zone will then
set-up from southeast MN to southwest Lower MI late Sunday evening
through the overnight hours. This will be the main driver for a
period of moderate to heavy snow across southern WI and far northern
IL during this time. A sharp southern cutoff in snow is possible
with this band. Late Sunday night through Monday morning,
substantial mid-level forcing ahead of the trough axis will then
support a SW to NE oriented band of moderate snow across much of the
CWA. Gusty W winds will follow as snow diminishes Monday afternoon
into the evening.

Given model trends and the potential for two periods of moderate to
heavy snow north, a Winter Storm Watch was issued for the northern
tier of counties in the CWA. Conditions within the next tier of
counties south, including Cook County, currently appear marginal to
reach warning criteria. Given the somewhat northward adjustment to
the low track, felt it was prudent to leave the I-88/I-290 counties
out of the watch at this time. However, the second round of snow
will precede the Monday morning commute by a few hours, so area-wide
impacts are still expected Monday morning.

 

 

Here was the 00z Euro/Control...

[Tom]

9-12 inches projected here so far

 

Green Bay AFD mentioning 15+ totals isnt out of the question but their not that confident going that high

This is a golden set up for the western shores of LM...even a SE wind will produce LES in these scenarios.  I remember a clipper like this one a number of years ago just hammered MKE on north from over 24 hours of winds off the lake.  Pretty interesting scenario shaping up for you guys up north.

[Tom]

06z NAM 3km picking up on a redic looking Lehs band on the north side of MKE...

[VMB443]

THIS is what I call winter! MKX hoists Wimter Storm Watch.

 

[Tom]

Taking a look into the 00z EPS mean SLP track, it takes the low into SW IA/DVN towards Kankakee, IL/NW IN and then into NW OH while all the other models keep the track north of the EPS.  I will say, a majority of the EPS members are not as strong in terms of MB strength but still pack a lot of qpf.  In essense, this systems track will come down to how strong it ends up becoming....the stronger (lower mb pressure) = favors a more N/NE track...lesser in strength and I can see the EPS/Euro track come into fruition.  Today's 12z runs should provide us with a good idea as the system will be fully sampled by the RAOB network, although, there have been times where we still have seen last minute shifts in track due to the Rockies having an "effect" on the models.  Either way you look at it, S MN into WI is in an idea location to see the brunt of this hybrid.

[Tom]

THIS is what I call winter! MKX hoists Wimter Storm Watch.

 

6B7914A3-E7E1-4A58-BBBE-169484612423.png

Seems like they are holding more weight into the GEFS and not so much the EPS....

[VMB443]

Seems like they are holding more weight into the GEFS and not so much the EPS....

Here’s their full thinking:

 

“A major winter storm is on track to hit southern Wisconsin. The

guidance remains in very good agreement with a slight shift north

(compared to previous days) with the surface low. The EC has a

more southern sfc low track, but focusing on the surface low

track can be misleading when dealing with an arctic airmass in

place. Models usually struggle with arctic airmasses. More

importantly, is the solid agreement with the h7/h5 low tracks.

This is where much of the meaningful forcing will be.

 

The warm air advection ahead of the low for Monday night is off

the charts. We`ll see sfc temps rise through the night, with

temps getting up around 30 in the far southeast on Monday. This

WAA and associated frontogenesis will be a productive snow maker.

The column is deeply saturated with a large portion of that high

RH in or very close to the favorable dendrite growth zone.

 

As the WAA pushes east by sunrise Monday, we`ll then get into the

forcing associated with potent mid level wave and upper

divergence for the morning hours. Things should begin to wind down

quickly from west to east Monday afternoon.

 

In general, this will be a dry snow. The exception may be across

the far southeast where temps rise to around 30F. Ratios in the

north on average will be about 18:1, while the southeast will be

about 13:1.”

[Tom]

SREF's for GRB are about 9.5", MKE 6.7", ORD 3.8", MSP 6", LSE 7"...

 

06z ICON...

 

[bud2380]

Spoiler alert! How’d you get that so fast?

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest

[james1976]

Very surprised to see my county in a winter storm watch for 3-6"

[Tom]

06z Euro still wants to keep things interesting across N IL...something that I'm noticing is the Euro has maintained the idea of keeping the heaviest WAA snows closer to the SLP and not as far north as some of the other models. 

 

[Niko]

I am still expecting shifts in track as this storm is yet from being set in stone. One thing is for sure and that is that someone on this forum will get a lot of snow. Still 2 more days tracking this beast.

[Money]

Dont see too much different on 12z NAM so far through 36. 2 mb weaker than 6z and a hair faster but similar overall

[St Paul Storm]

Yep looking good still. Just looked at the 06z runs and I’m liking the nice little uptick in amounts. Let’s see if it holds on 12z.

[Money]

By hr 42 its a hair North but pretty similar

[Money]

Tracks from S MN to NE IA over to Madison/Milwaukee areas

[Money]

3k NAM is even farther North and tracks the low North of Madison.

 

Also 2-3 mb stronger than 12km nam

[Tony]

Relying on one model for us in N IL not good but hoping things will trend a little better the next 36 hours. Still plenty of times for things to change but WI and MN looking good. Hope Euro can score big this time around.

[gosaints]

3k NAM is even farther North and tracks the low North of Madison.

Also 2-3 mb stronger than 12km nam

and its pretty juiced

[Money]

RGEM at 48 has a 997 L pretty much right over DBQ. 1 mb weaker than 6z but identical spot

[St Paul Storm]

3km NAM is a weenie dream run.

[Money]

12z Icon also shifted north from 6z.

 

HR 48 996 L on the WI/IL boarder.

[East Dubzz]

Since most of my snow will come from out ahead of the SLP, would be nice if it’d slow down some. That said, I think I’m looking at maybe 2-5” here. Obviously would like more, but nice to continue to add on to the snowpack at least!

[East Dubzz]

GFS pretty similar through 42.

[East Dubzz]

A tick further south on this run, but that’s just me being picky (mainly because slight shifts south could be a decent difference for me). Some great consistency from the GFS on the track of this storm.

[St Paul Storm]

MPX gonna need to up their totals if this keeps up. 5-9” range might be a little stingy on the low end of the range.

[Tom]

No doubt the GFS has been consistent and likewise has been the Euro. All the models seem to have a mid 990’s mb storm tracking thru S WI, but the Euro has not shown that strong of a storm just yet (a few days ago it did). I’m wondering if today’s run shows more strength from the Euro.

[East Dubzz]

MPX gonna need to up their totals if this keeps up. 5-9” range might be a little stingy on the low end of the range.

Most likely. But never a bad idea to start on the lower side and adjust up.

 

GFS matches up very well with the current winter storm watches out there. Obviously some on the edge will end up being advisories, but the offices seem to have a good handle on this. I guess things can change still, but it appears the GFS is nailing this one.

 

Nice little uptick on snow amounts on that run compared to the 06z.