Money Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 RAP looks a lot like 18z nam Wide snow band of 12-18 http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=snku_acc&rh=2019012719&fh=21&r=conus&dpdt=&mc= Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Sign me up for that! Would love to get 6+ out of this, though I’m still expecting 4-6. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Looking at the 18zNAM, it’s showing snow moving into NW MN at 22z in places where its currently snowing. Caution Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Looking at the 18zNAM, it’s showing snow moving into NW MN at 22z in places where its currently snowing. Cautionagree always cautious with the NAM. But at the same time WAA wings often arrive ahead of schedule and east of guidance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 agree always cautious with the NAM. But at the same time WAA wings often arrive ahead of schedule and east of guidance.Yeah for sure. 3km gonna slam job. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Just catching up on the model runs today and quite interesting. Heavy snow setup with windy conditions could see some areas have blizzard conditions. Nice to see a wide band of warning snows from this system. Wonder what other surprises we will see from this storm but it is very impresdive Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Yeah for sure. 3km gonna slam job.Take a look at this. That would be fun to see verify. 3 Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Clouds have thickened up here and already a couple flakes falling. Wow. Def saturated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 If radar looks like the 3km NAM later on not gonna be sleeping through that 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 MPX just upped the point to 7-12”. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Is it just me or does it seem like the NAMily is underplaying that snow shield in North MN / East ND? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Icon also came in stronger with more qpf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Looks like the DVN upgraded a couple counties to a winter storm warning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Steady light snow falling here already. Im impressed cuz radar is showing very light returns only. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Wow- mid to upper 50's now in S. Central Neb. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 GFS took another small shift south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Wow- mid to upper 50's now in S. Central Neb.A lot of ingredients Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Wow- mid to upper 50's now in S. Central Neb.52 degrees. Lovely. Though I would love to have some of that snow, you can keep the record cold east of here. No thanks. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Snow looks to be like the 9pm to 6am timeframe around here. So assuming this thing pans out, I’m guessing no school for the kids again. And definitely won’t have it wednesay or Thursday. Gonna have a lot to make up just from last week and this week! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 GFS has 6.9 inches in CR. Lock it in! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 GFS took another small shift south.Big shift for some. Especially just NE of DSM which would be borderline Warning material. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Anyone have a GFS snowfall map? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 18Z GFS. This is Iowa snow totals. Still snowing east of Mississippi River. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 GFS running away from MSP and the NAM's/HRRR holding pretty steady. Model chaos when event is almost starting! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Snow looks to be like the 9pm to 6am timeframe around here. So assuming this thing pans out, I’m guessing no school for the kids again. And definitely won’t have it wednesay or Thursday. Gonna have a lot to make up just from last week and this week!Might be sooner than 9pm for you. Already started here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 GFS running away from MSP and the NAM's/HRRR holding pretty steady. Model chaos when event is almost starting!We’re outside of global model time. Go with the short term models and radar. Everyone else south and east of us is still hanging on globals since the system is still a ways out for many of them. The sun has disappeared. Snow quickly advancing in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 We’re outside of global model time. Go with the short term models and radar. Everyone else south and east of us is still hanging on globals since the system is still a ways out for many of them. The sun has disappeared. Snow quickly advancing in.Ah, thanks for the clarification! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 DVN now has me in the 6-8” range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 The HRRR has stabilized at about 0.25-0.30" for Cedar Rapids. I'm expecting about 3 inches. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Getting some on and off again mixed precip Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 HRRR dropping over .50” on DBQ, with Kuchera equating to over 7”... I’ll believe it when I see it, but it’s encouraging nonetheless. Actually, the latest run has 8.2”.... lets make it happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SE Wisconsin Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 AFD from MKX is almost jaw dropping! Lots of closings already in the Milwaukee area for tomorrow. Including most of the government offices for the city of Milwaukee. QPF output remains robust, suggesting 1 to 2 inch per hour snow rates overnight through the mid morning hours Monday. This will cause significant travel impacts, with substantial impacts to the Monday morning commute. All areas can expect at least 6 inches of snowfall with a widespread 6-10 inches forecast. The axis of highest snowfall, between 10 and 14 inches is focused on the northeast portion of the forecast area, including areas in and around Fond du Lac, Sheboygan, Port Washington, West Bend and Juneau. It is entirely possible this band of higher snow shifts just a bit to the south and includes the the I-94 corridor. Bottom line, widespread heavy snow is expected. Lake enhancement will likely add 2-4 inches for lake front counties overnight through mid Monday morning. Right now, Sheboygan, Ozaukee and Milwaukee are most prone to these higher amounts. It is not out of reason to see storm total snowfall around 18 inches where lake enhancement is maximized. QPF output remains robust, suggesting 1 to 2 inch per hour snow rates overnight through the mid morning hours Monday. This will cause significant travel impacts, with substantial impacts to the Monday morning commute. All areas can expect at least 6 inches of snowfall with a widespread 6-10 inches forecast. The axis of highest snowfall, between 10 and 14 inches is focused on the northeast portion of the forecast area, including areas in and around Fond du Lac, Sheboygan, Port Washington, West Bend and Juneau. It is entirely possible this band of higher snow shifts just a bit to the south and includes the the I-94 corridor. Bottom line, widespread heavy snow is expected. Lake enhancement will likely add 2-4 inches for lake front counties overnight through mid Monday morning. Right now, Sheboygan, Ozaukee and Milwaukee are most prone to these higher amounts. It is not out of reason to see storm total snowfall around 18 inches where lake enhancement is maximized. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Current radar appears to be a bit further south than current HRRR run. (Specifically looking in western Iowa) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Impressive looking radar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Had a bit of light snow a while ago....then a lil break....and now the real deal is just starting. Let's go Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Current radar appears to be a bit further south than current HRRR run. (Specifically looking in western Iowa)Not true Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Not trueDon’t worry money, not trying to take your snow. Just making an observation for us Iowans. And it clearly reaches further southwest than 22z run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 James- how’s the snow up there? Coming down good? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Don’t worry money, not trying to take your snow. Just making an observation for us Iowans. And it clearly reaches further southwest than 22z run.The HRRR run is matching up well in Iowa. Look at 0z (2 hours out on the 22z run) and its identical Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 The HRRR run is matching up well in Iowa. Look at 0z (2 hours out on the 22z run) and its identicalThe HRRR is a tad strong with the surface low per mesoanalysis. HRRR is initialized at 993mb but 00z mesoanalysis has a 996mb low ever so slightly to the west and south of the 23z HRRR at FH001. Suggesting that the HRRR is definitely a bit strong right now and perhaps a hair east, though not really enough to be noteworthy. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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