February 2019 Observations and Discussion

[mlgamer]

Snowcover map from 40 years ago today...fun times!

 

[Andie]

DFW area is sitting at 34* calm winds. Lows tonight at 27*.

 

Ice and Snow are moving up from the SW across Tx. Hill Country.

We should see some sleet and snow from 5 pm into evening.

 

Rain will come in for the weekend with temps in the 40's slowly climbing into the 60's.

At least it's acting like winter and not Spring.

[Grizzcoat]

Not a big fan of posting snow maps way out there; but when I do it's the EURO Control -

[Money]

Gfs FV3

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019020818&fh=240&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_acc&m=gfs_fv3

[Money]

18z GFS

 

974 MB...

 

https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019020818&fh=168

[Minny_Weather]

Lock it in fellas

[jcwxguy]

Lock it in fellas

that's hilarious

[East Dubzz]

Hate to do it, but we’re just gonna have to go ahead and lock it in.

[Niko]

Few snowshowers today coated the roads, otherwise, very windy and colder w temps remaining in the mid teens and lows dropping between 0-5.

[Stormhunter87]

Lock it in fellas

If that were to pain out it would be wonderful.

[james1976]

Craig is gonna freak

[Niko]

All hell is breaking loose in Seattle, WA w snow in their forecast almost everyday and right through next week. They are currently under a WSW for 4-8."

[Niko]

Currently at 12F w windy conditions under partly cloudy skies n a wcf of -6F.

[jaster220]

Dang cold this morning. Temp just slightly below zero but the wind is howling! Getting the track set up for our snowmobile club radar run. Tomorrow will be a perfect day to race sleds on the Wisconsin River!

 

Wow. At least winter is serious somewhere. Hard to believe it actually looked like that here just a week ago and now it looks again like All of Dec, the first 2/3 of Jan, and the first 1/3 of Feb.

[jaster220]

that's hilarious

 

I could use a good laugh, just like it's showing!

[Grizzcoat]

GFS with +RA for most of N.IA . S. WI and N>IL for Valentines' Day. How lovely. Hammers the same areas with +SN .....

[Grizzcoat]

Minneapolis all time snow depth record is 38" in 1982. I was there. It may be in jeopardy. For Feb it's 31" in 1967.

[jaster220]

Snowcover map from 40 years ago today...fun times!

 

 

I remember that month. Was learning to ski in those dark blues in far NW Lwr Michigan. Had "only" 10" back home in SEMI

[Niko]

Currently at 10F. Wcf -2F w snowshowers still persisting.

[Tom]

Overnight data continues to point towards the long standing ideas that this month will continue to be a Big Snow producer, favoring those north initially, but the pattern will eventually shift farther south before the month is out.   Storms will be plentiful, Snow will be bountiful...the pattern is about as locked and loaded as I've ever seen.  Gosh, some places north of here may never see the bare ground till sometime late in March if things end up transpiring the way I believe it will.  In all honesty, this is about as close as it gets to experience what Boston did in Feb '15 when a pattern just doesn't want to break.  So folks, keep those shovels and snow blowers handy because the next 2-4+ weeks are going to be filled with winter storms.

 

This coming week, the week of the 10th, is about as busy as we've seen all season long with 3 systems that will be targeting the northern half of our Sub. Ever since I've made a call to look for a sneaky Valentines Day storm, the modeling has all but picked up on this next storm potential.  This one, has the looks of yet another strong storm system taking a very similar track but may dig just a tad farther south.  Once we get passed this storm, I foresee those near KC and areas nearby begin to score some hits before the month is out.  

Besides the storms, those who live out in the central Plains, esp our members in NE who escaped the "Polar Vortex" intrusion in late Jan, the cold will dominate and I would not be surprised given the expanding "heartland glacier", to see an extended period where those places tack on many more sub zero day/night temps over the next couple weeks.  An anchor trough centered across the west/central states is going to dominate the overall wx pattern going forward as I do not see the -PNA pattern breaking down anytime soon.  Enjoy the ride bc it's going to end up being one hellova month.

 

 

 

[East Dubzz]

Alright, you were allowed to share your thoughts on this previously, troll.

 

But if that’s literally ALL you’re going to contribute to this board... yeah, that’s ain’t happening.

[Niko]

Currently at 13F w beautiful, sunny skies. Winds have diminished, so that's a good thing.

[East Dubzz]

Not sure why my posts keep getting deleted. Trying to put a face to this harsh winter weather that you all crave. Not surprised you cowards can’t handle it.

Because the act is getting old. If that’s literally all you’re going to contribute to this board, you won’t be a part of it for much longer.

[james1976]

this dude is hilarious

[OmahaSnowFan]

[Stacsh]

Kind of weird to troll a weather board.

[Tony]

Next system of interest Thursday/Friday has tons of potential.

[gosaints]

My word the gfs train

[GDR]

[OKwx2k4]

Not sure why my posts keep getting deleted. Trying to put a face to this harsh winter weather that you all crave. Not surprised you cowards can’t handle it.

Using the word "cowards" in the wrong region of the country, and the wrong kind of people. my friend. Not even close. I'm pretty sure you think weather is horrible but have some other stupid belief that animals and things are more important than people, blah blah blah.

[Iowawx]

If the GFS is right, we are going to have an active week around here. Friday has a very strong storm. Fun times ahead it looks like. 

[gimmesnow]

Sorry to interupt your bubble of wishcasting for the most extreme conditions possible. I’ll leave you sickos to yourselves.

 

Extreme weather is going to happen whether you leave your parent's basement or not.

[hlcater]

This is quite a pattern we’re heading into. I haven’t felt this optimistic in awhile. Might be somewhat mild and late in the season, so it probably won’t be the best snowpack building conditions, but there looks to be a wave traversing the central conus every 2-4 days.

[james1976]

That Valentine's Day storm on the GFS looks quite impressive.

[Money]

GFS through next Friday

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019020918&fh=150&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_acc&m=gfs

 

15-25 inches from Minnesota east into WI

[Grizzcoat]

DMX really talking about the Valentines' Day event- which is HIGHLY unlike them--

 

Thursday-Saturday Winter Weather Potential...

Long range models suggesting yet another winter storms impacting the
Midwest sometime during this timeframe. However, they are all over
the place in terms of timing, location, and strength of this
potential system, so confidence in any of the above is very low at
this time. In short, The GFS has generally brought the worst impacts
over Iowa, whereas the ECMWF has generally been well south of Iowa
with the worst impacts.

Tracing this system back to its source region takes us all the way
to the Bering Sea of Alaska. Long-range models showing a weak upper
low in this region and an impulse ejecting off the deep Siberian
Low. Needless to say, this is an area that is less well-sampled
meteorologically. By 12z Sun, the interactions of these features
should begin to take shape, and by 00z Mon... if this system
holds... should be much more well-defined and off the British
Columbia coastline. So am ultimately expecting an notable increase
in model handling of this system for the 12z Sun model runs, and
an even bigger increase in model handling of this with the 00z Mon
models... until then not worth getting into details too much
other than to say that this is something that absolutely bears
monitoring.

[Money]

Gfs has systems

 

Sun

Mon night/Tuesday

Thursday/Friday

Sun/Mon

 

Totaling 3 feet in spots

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019020918&fh=210&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_acc&m=gfs

[Tony]

Gfs has systems

 

Sun

Mon night/Tuesday

Thursday/Friday

Sun/Mon

 

Totaling 3 feet in spots

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019020918&fh=210&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_acc&m=gfs

About 10" roughly for Cht-town area while the rest get buried. I would rather have 0 because you know there is ice and lots of rain in this scenario. Yes, im bitter.

[Minny_Weather]

Euro with a complete BOMB at the end of the run (Feb 18-19), holy cow. 19" in that one storm here, up to 20" in Northeast Nebraska. It's 9 days out but this will be one to look at.

[jaster220]

Euro with a complete BOMB at the end of the run (Feb 18-19), holy cow. 19" in that one storm here, up to 20" in Northeast Nebraska. It's 9 days out but this will be one to look at.

 

That'll be the one that will torch-off any snow cover I may have managed by then