February 2019 Observations and Discussion

[CentralNebWeather]

57 degrees in Central Nebraska. Any remaining snow should be gone in the next couple of days. No winter around here. Hope for changes next week.

[CentralNebWeather]

[Niko]

Somebody might wanna start a thread for next weeks Winterstorm regarding Ice and Snow. Its looking real nasty.

[Stacsh]

Somebody might wanna start a thread for next weeks Winterstorm regarding Ice and Snow. Its looking real nasty.

 

I mentioned it this morning, but was told it was too early lol.  

[East Dubzz]

I mentioned it this morning, but was told it was too early lol.

I just said maybe wait a few runs to see if the models can start getting a better idea of what time frame to look into, as models are all over the place right now. I don’t really care all that much, but I can start one if people are that anxious haha

[East Dubzz]

Started a thread: http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1960-24-28-multiple-potential-rainicesnow-events/

[jaster220]

  Hitting the slopes here in SWMI tomorrow BEFORE the rainer ruins conditions. Prolly be a zoo with all having the same idea - first warm day - last dry day - best conditions of the season. 

[Niko]

Looks like readings will fall to near zero tanite, so, another frigid evening shaping up.

[Niko]

  Hitting the slopes here in SWMI tomorrow BEFORE the rainer ruins conditions. Prolly be a zoo with all having the same idea - first warm day - last dry day - best conditions of the season. 

Have fun amigo! Hurry up b4 the brief thaw moves in.

[clintbeed1993]

High of 56 on Sunday here. Yeah, our snowpack is gonna get nuked over the weekend. Better it go fast than a slow painful death I guess.

 

Atleast you had a snowpack to nuke..

[Tom]

Happy Saturday all!  Finally, the weekend has arrived and I have some free time to dig into the pattern and analyze the data.  It's fascinating to see the LRC shine once again as we roll into the part of the pattern which produced an expansive EC ridge and a very wet pattern across the central CONUS at the tail end of Oct and into early Nov.  I've learned in the past, that cycle #1 usually behaves in a similar fashion as cycle #3 and it looks like it's heading that way.  So far, it is not a question if the SER will develop, in fact, it's going to lock for an extended period this month which is going to keep our Sub smack dab in the middle of all the action.  This pattern is going to be very conducive for brewing up winter storms and it starts this coming week.  I'm especially convinced the central Plains will be in the heart of the action as they have been missing out in the activity for the most part during the 2nd half of January. FWIW, I will admit a bust in the forecast for Feb which I thought would be a more suppressed pattern.  On the other hand, I'm excited for a lot of us to be able to benefit from the forthcoming pattern.

 

Not including the early week hard cutter, there are 3 systems on the calendar which all have a "cutter" look to them.  The first, in a series of wet storm systems, is poised to hit mid next week and I see @EastDubzz already started a thread for it.  Appreciate that!  Storm target dates: (6th-8th), (10th-12th) & (14th-16th).  Gosh, this is going to be one hellova month tracking storms and a pattern ripe to building a "heartland glacier" to whomever that storm track pays dividends. 

 

How does this all happen? It takes a combination of numerous factors to work in harmony of one another.  If you take a second and think about where we have been through this season, it's been a season where seemingly it wants to go to the extreme.  I've noticed that when nature wants to "work" together and lay out all the cards she has to play with, it is happening this season.  So, with that in mind, check out the 00z GEFS 250mb jet stream forecast from Day 5-15 and a distinct SW Flow locks and rocks right through our Sub with a beautiful Sub Tropical connection.  IMO, this is a very rare pattern to have the tropical connection, high lat blocking and a very amplified North American 500mb pattern.

 

Day 5...

 

 

Day 10...

 

 

Day 15...

 

 

 

 

Folks, giddy up and gear up, for what will be a February filled with excitement and "nail biter" forecasts (esp around Chitown next week) and among the days ahead.  Here are the 00z EPS/GEFS snow mean maps and you will quickly get an idea of what lies ahead over the next 2 weeks.

 

 

[Tom]

This is not the trend in the ENSO 1.2 region for those snow geese in the East would like to see this month....like last Feb, that EC ridge looks to dominate this month.  Admittedly, I too, did not foresee this happening during February.  However, what is a "bad" pattern for those in the East, usually bodes well for the heartland of the nation.

 

 

 

 

[East Dubzz]

Up to 23* this morning. It was 52 degrees colder at this time 48 hours ago.

[Niko]

A balmy 17F w cloudy skies. Some ice is expected later on.

[Hawkeye]

We just went above freezing.  We'll be well above freezing into Monday, so it'll be interesting to see how fast this fluffy snow pack shrinks.

[East Dubzz]

We just went above freezing. We'll be well above freezing into Monday, so it'll be interesting to see how fast this fluffy snow pack shrinks.

Seeing much fog down there yet? I expect that to be a pretty big issue for most of this weekend.

[gimmesnow]

Seeing much fog down there yet? I expect that to be a pretty big issue for most of this weekend.

 

It's super foggy here in SE Wisconsin.

[Niko]

Well, Punxsutawney Phil did not see his shadow. Early Spring in the cards?!?!

[Hawkeye]

Seeing much fog down there yet? I expect that to be a pretty big issue for most of this weekend.

 

There is no fog here, just a good start to the melt.  I think I may be down an inch already.

[Stacsh]

Up to 36 here.  From 8 last night.  Roads rapidly improving, finally.  

[Tom]

Earlier this morning around sunrise, I could smell the GOM moisture heading this way.  Up to 39F and it feels balmy out there.  I'll prob loose a couple inches from melting and settling.  Thankfully, its cloudy and not a whole lot of rain is in the forecast over here which won't aggravate rising rivers.

[OKwx2k4]

Toasty, humid day today and a few more coming. Giving the old furnace a break today.

 

GFS did this.....

 

Which means, you know exactly what will not happen? That!!

 

Just one time in 4 years. All I'm asking.

[East Dubzz]

Temp has overachieved today. Up to 39 already. Snowpack still very good, but obviously taking a hit.

[gimmesnow]

Toasty, humid day today and a few more coming. Giving the old furnace a break today.

 

GFS did this.....gfs_asnow_scus_41.png

 

Which means, you know exactly what will not happen? That!!

 

Just one time in 4 years. All I'm asking.

 

GFS has gone crazy. 9 inches in Louisiana. lmao ok buddy. Got to have some serious balls to forecast something that's happened 6 times since 1895.

 

I guess it's safe to say that none of these models knows what's going to happen next week.

 

[OKwx2k4]

GFS has gone crazy. 9 inches in Louisiana. lmao ok buddy. Got to have some serious balls to forecast something that's happened 6 times since 1895.

 

I guess it's safe to say that none of these models knows what's going to happen next week.

 

I know. I'm not taking it seriously.

 

The ice threats, on the other hand, are looking legit.

[gimmesnow]

I know. I'm not taking it seriously.

 

The ice threats, on the other hand, are looking legit.

 

I know, I'm just throwing in another GFS map for added "GFS = Gone Freaking Stupid" effect.

[Minny_Weather]

I know, I'm just throwing in another GFS map for added "GFS = Gone Freaking Stupid" effect.

That was the FV3 you posted, which tends to completely lose its marbles 5 or so days out for each and every storm.

[East Dubzz]

That was the FV3 you posted, which tends to completely lose its marbles 5 or so days out for each and every storm.

It loses its marbles inside that too.

[gimmesnow]

That was the FV3 you posted, which tends to completely lose its marbles 5 or so days out for each and every storm.

 

I thought FV3 was just a new version of the GFS.

[East Dubzz]

I thought FV3 was just a new version of the GFS.

It is. Newer isn’t always better. Though I’m sure it’s just working on the kinks. But I pay no attention to it anymore.

[Hawkeye]

The Cedar Rapids airport has been steady in the upper 30s today, but here in the city we've jumped into the 40s.  My snowpack was 15" after the Thursday clipper, but it's already down to 10".  I just spent the last hour clearing the snow and some ice away from the south-facing roof and gutters.  It's amazing how good low to mid 40s feels following -50 a few days ago.  I had to remove my hat and coat while working outside.  Even the black sweatshirt I was wearing was getting warm.

[OKwx2k4]

Well, I'd "like" some of those, but.....

 

@#!"ć÷×+!!

[james1976]

Dense Fog Advisory here. Made it to 40, now its 37.

[East Dubzz]

Dense Fog Advisory here. Made it to 40, now its 37.

Same here. Except we only made it to 39. All else the same. Should be pretty foggy well into tomorrow as well, according to the DVN.

[Niko]

Later on tanite and into Sunday, fog is expected IMBY and that will really eat up my snowpack.

[Niko]

Currently at a very nice 41F w mostly cloudy skies. Felt beautiful being outside today.

[East Dubzz]

Fog starting to overspend the area. Has gotten much more dense in a very short period here. Temp has been holding steady at 37 for several hours now.

[Minny_Weather]

It's been foggy here on-and-off all day but it's really dense now. 43.6°F.

[Stormy]

Temperature topped out at 44° today which is 72° warmer than it was at around 54 hrs ago! Quite the difference. The snow pack shrunk a lot & might be mostly gone in open areas till this heat wave ends later Monday. I don't care. I'm kinda tired of stomping through it. Lol

[Stormy]

Fog starting to overspend the area. Has gotten much more dense in a very short period here. Temp has been holding steady at 37 for several hours now.

Yeah it's crazy foggy here as well with light drizzle. We were lucky enough to actually see a few hours of sunshine midday/pm.