February 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Minny_Weather]

Cut Bank, MT is expecting 1-3" of snow tomorrow with a temp around -16*F. I didn't even know that was possible.

[CentralNebWeather]

0z GFS with storm after storm. Wouldn’t this be a great pattern?

[Hawkeye]

It's nice to see several opportunities for wintry precip into the extended on the models.

[Hawkeye]

We peaked in the mid 40s this afternoon and then fell a bit to the low 40s.  However, the temp is inching back up again.

[hlcater]

We peaked in the mid 40s this afternoon and then fell a bit to the low 40s. However, the temp is inching back up again.

Our area stands to lose most, if not all, of our snow the weekend. For some reason I’m oddly fine with that. We had snow on the ground for 4 consecutive weeks and there’s more chances in the future. Rare feat around here.

[gabel23]

Cut Bank, MT is expecting 1-3" of snow tomorrow with a temp around -16*F. I didn't even know that was possible.

Just insane, if you look at any town in North Dakota the forecast is to drop below zero tonight and not get above in the extended forecast. A week straight not above zero and a snowstorm tomorrow?! Hopefully a sign for things to come for us.....

[Tom]

Just insane, if you look at any town in North Dakota the forecast is to drop below zero tonight and not get above in the extended forecast. A week straight not above zero and a snowstorm tomorrow?! Hopefully a sign for things to come for us.....

Nearly all of the models are parking the coldest air across the CONUS right to your north which is a good sign for you guys out there.  Very reminiscent of the '16/'17 La Nina pattern where the coldest air was anchored across the Dakotas but this year we have a favorable -EPO pattern which will push this cold air eventually S/SE in time.  Hope you guys can finish off this season with some big snows.

[Stormy]

I noticed that the like button either changed or disappeared on my phone and iPad. Not sure if I accidentally changed a setting or that's the way it now is. Are those red & green up/down arrows like and dislike buttons? If it is I probably disliked some comments without knowing what I was doing! Lol don't take it serious!

[Minny_Weather]

I noticed that the like button either changed or disappeared on my phone and iPad. Not sure if I accidentally changed a setting or that's the way it now is. Are those red & green up/down arrows like and dislike buttons? If it is I probably disliked some comments without knowing what I was doing! Lol don't take it serious!

Yeah, I'm not a fan of this new system but I already aired my opinion on that in the complaints thread.

[Minny_Weather]

We have to be setting a record high minimum today. As far as I know most of our records are in the 30s somewhere. In other news, birds are chirping as if it's Spring.  48.6*F.

[Hawkeye]

Our snow pack is vanishing quickly.  In 24 hours I've gone from 15" to 7".

[gosaints]

Can't believe the melt that has occures

[East Dubzz]

Dense food advisory has been extended until midnight here. No shocker. Fog, constant drizzle, and melting snow sure makes it look ugly outside right now.

[gimmesnow]

http://www.aos.wisc.edu/~sco/clim-history/stations/msn/msn-sts-2018-19.gif

We came so close to making average, What a rebound in snow. Though looking at the extended I think we're not going to make it in SE Wisconsin. My prediction for the rest of the year is that we make it to 40 inches. We need another 20+ inches to make average snowfall for the season.

 

the 93-94 winter actually looks similar to what we have now. Wonder if we could be so lucky, though March snow is usually useless.

http://www.aos.wisc.edu/~sco/clim-history/stations/msn/msn-sts-1993-94.gif

 

At least gives me some hope we've seen slow starts shift into well above average winters. Though it seems like looking at the records, winters either go berserk after a slow start or completely fall off, seems like they're least likely to just maintain average.

[gimmesnow]

Dense food advisory has been extended until midnight here. No shocker. Fog, constant drizzle, and melting snow sure makes it look ugly outside right now.

 

This is almost the most depressing time of the year for me. Always really bummin when it all goes away, but it's even worse when you start looking at models and realize there's a week left in February and it all looks like crap, while the rest of the winter wasn't that good either. But given last few years, I think a month of Winter is good enough for me.

[Stormy]

Yeah, I'm not a fan of this new system but I already aired my opinion on that in the complaints thread.

Yeah ok.... thanks. I hadn’t checked the complaints thread for a few days.

[Stormy]

Our snow pack is vanishing quickly.  In 24 hours I've gone from 15" to 7".

Disappearing rapidly here as well. Normally when it starts melting a fog might roll in (as has happened),but temps would usually be stuck in the mid 30°s for highs with lows a bit below freezing. But this time it’s barely dropping below 40° at night which makes a huge difference if it can keep melting rapidly 24 hrs a day! I’m already up to 45° & the dense fog actually lifted & it’s fairly bright outside. Man I’m happy my livestock (& I) got a break from that severe cold though! The cement in the outbuildings was starting to heave just enough that some doors weren’t closing properly anymore. But that happens in most winters. I think the January mean temp here was only around 2.7° below normal at 19.4° IIRC. Had checked my weatherlink software yesterday

[BrianJK]

Our snow pack is vanishing quickly. In 24 hours I've gone from 15" to 7".

Same story here. Lost about half yesterday and that was the “coolest” day of the warm stretch. With mid-40 DPs, and 40s for lows and 50s for highs, guessing this will all be gone by tomorrow evening. Was certainly beautiful while it lasted.

[bud2380]

The densest fog I’ve ever seen in my life right now on and around highway 30 on the SW side of CR. I’m now in Fairfax and it’s the same here, visibility is under 200 feet.

[westMJim]

Welcome to supper melt 2019. Cloudy with some fog here and a current temperature at my house of 43.7° Still snow in the yard and on the road but my is it getting slushy with a lot of standing water on the road.

[Hawkeye]

I'm down another 2" here, snow pack is 5".  The fog has been pretty solid all day, but not like what Bud is describing.  I know the sw edge of town tends to be worse than here in the middle of the city.

 

Every hour there is more grass showing in the open area next to my yard.

[Andie]

 

75*. Partly Cloudy

 

Winds Calm, Dew Point 60*

 

 

Yawn, pass the Margaritas plz?!

[westMJim]

In the last 3 February's it has gotten to 60° or better in Grand Rapids? 

[gimmesnow]

In the last 3 February's it has gotten to 60° or better in Grand Rapids? 

 

Looking at Madison climatology office, it looks like we've been in the 50s every Feb since 2015, thought 2018 had some 50s in January instead. Don't know where to get climatology data for grand rapids but I'm sure it's out there somewhere.

 

On the bright side, CPC and weather channel seem to think we'll be heading into some more frigid stuff after this. Too bad this base is going to get nuked and we'll start all over.

[snowstorm83]

Honestly feels kinda muggy out there lol. Ready for the cold to come back.

[Stormy]

Water is cruising down all of the field waterways here & the dry dam in my brother's field is nearly full even though it has a tile outlet that is draining water at the same time. Large bare areas showing now, but still plenty snow drifts remaining. Smaller streams might flood a bit without any rainfall. Looks way different out there.

[jaster220]

Have fun amigo! Hurry up b4 the brief thaw moves in.

 

Thanks friend. Ended up having a great time and came home in one piece. Always a plus considering they are constantly hauling injured peeps off the slopes in this recreational endeavor. First time out this winter and it was just the way I prefer it in my young age -warm! 

 

My first time I skied I was a 14 yr old kid in Jan of '79. In NWMI at that time there was 50" of natural snow! I thought I'd arrived in winter heaven and immediately loved the sport. Now, with my daughter along I celebrated my 40th year of hitting the slopes with only one serious injury (my own fault btw) and a ton of great memories. One thing that made it feel like a deja-vu time warp is that Michigan ski resorts still play the same classic rock tunes that were popular 4 decades ago. It's a crazy thing that even I don't understand since I regularly listen to newer music, lol. Who says you hafta grow up? Just get to the slopes, slap your skiis on and presto!   

[Beltrami Island]

Finally getting a good old storm with snowfall and wind for eastern nd and nw Minnesota while you guys meltdown to south. In Fargo now, dead car battery was the final clue to wait out the storm until tomorrow to drive home. It's nasty in Fargo right now

[jaster220]

By comparison with the 2014 post-PV torch, this one will be dryer but much warmer, having hit 49F today and still in the upper 40's and not dropping any time soon.

 

5 yrs ago, we received 0.4" of chilly rain with temps 38-40F. Only one day went up to 44F, and all but one day hit 32F or lower at night to arrest the run-away torch train we have this time.

 

We lost about 9 or 10 inches back then going from 18 to 8" depth. We only had 9-10" OTG this time and fields are mostly bare already with depth here in town down to an inch or 2.

 

Places like Kzoo just west actually still have a lot more since they got 2X the storm totals of here. Their situation is more like what we had in '14 so they may well come thru with some ground coverage whereas we'll be starting from scratch again here. This is even worse than the warm rainer torch-off on the 22nd.

 

The further SE you get from Iowa/NIL the worse this winter has been wrt yo-yo conditions. I'd be ok with a pattern that built a snowpack that lasted 3 wks, then got nuked for a few days before rebuilding. Instead, it's been the opposite taking 3 wks to get built, only to be nuked 3 days later. People south of Michigan are basically over this winter's Grinch-like treatment.

[Bryan1117]

Made it up to 55 degrees today here in Omaha. Our snowpack is now completely gone except for some dirty snowpiles in places... hoping we can get a little bit more back this week, however this next cold shot will hit us with bare ground in most places. Ready for Spring now! 

[East Dubzz]

Snowpack got obliterated overnight.

[Tom]

Waking up this morning as the sun rises, it almost has that Spring look to it but with snow still on the ground (surprisingly) it is a reminder we are still in Winter.  I thought for sure I'd wake up with the snow completely gone but there is still a couple inches of dense snow.  After today's low 50's in the forecast, I think it'll be gone.  So, as we watch our snow disappear in yet another February 'snow melt', I snapped some photos throughout the Jan '19 Snow Blitz to capture the memories of what was a beautiful deep snow pack.

 

 

[Tom]

@ Niko, I just read that Chicago missed tying the record (18) straight days of at least a trace of snow and ended with 16 straight days.  Nonetheless, it was a memorable stretch in late January.

[Tom]

The LR signals are speaking loudly that the "Resilient Ridge" along the EC will likely have staying power throughout this month and placing emphasis across the Central CONUS for an ideal pattern to tracking storm systems.  Looking at nearly every single model, the -PNA is locked and loaded for the foreseeable future.  Once we get past the next couple hard cutters, I believe the pattern will begin to look more favorable for more members on here farther south to get hit by snow storms.  The 10mb animation below is a great 2-3 week LR indicator of the magnitude of the SER.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.gif

 

 

Just taking a glance at the 00z EPS/GEFS ensembles, I still believe the Plains/MW states will finally get some opportunities for snow later this weekend.  Pick and choose your ensemble member and the signal is there for quite a bit of snow across our Sub Forum from KC on north.  As I mentioned before, this is going to be a Big month in the snow dept.

[Hawkeye]

My backyard is down to 2" and there are plenty of grassy spots showing.  The open field next to my house is mostly green.

[Andie]

[jaster220]

 

 

You should know betta by now. The one thing that's been a lock this winter is that the torches have been robust over-achievers across SMI. Will be shocked if I don't see another 57F and rain when all is said-n-done  

 

I AM SHOCKED!!  

 

(only 56F)  

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Just a few large piles here, most everything else is gone.  That Dec. 26th blizzard snow was sure resilient because we only got a few more inches here and there on top.  Though right now a temp. of 16 and wind chill near 0 is a far cry from the 50's of the last 2 days.

[Minny_Weather]

Just a few large piles here, most everything else is gone.  That Dec. 26th blizzard snow was sure resilient because we only got a few more inches here and there on top.  Though right now a temp. of 16 and wind chill near 0 is a far cry from the 50's of the last 2 days.

Same exact situation here. Reduced to just piles. 13.8*F.

[jaster220]

The LR signals are speaking loudly that the "Resilient Ridge" along the EC will likely have staying power throughout this month and placing emphasis across the Central CONUS for an ideal pattern to tracking storm systems.  Looking at nearly every single model, the -PNA is locked and loaded for the foreseeable future.  Once we get past the next couple hard cutters, I believe the pattern will begin to look more favorable for more members on here farther south to get hit by snow storms.  The 10mb animation below is a great 2-3 week LR indicator of the magnitude of the SER.

 

 

I'm respectfully taking the "other" and calling meaningful winter here over. The pattern for Chicago and points N and W is still in play however, so those in your post above can keep hopes alive for decent to good month.

 

The pattern for mby and points east has been thus: 

 

We watch for 2-3 wks as storms cut west of us building a snow pack. The cold finally builds in enough to include SMI in the snow action with the final system, just prior to pushing the "reset button" via torching. While we're not completely shut-out over here, our days with decent winter snow conditions are very fleeting. Their demise is already forecast by the time real winter hits us. There's reports of Robins in Indiana already. Spring's not far behind. This morning's sky resembled April more than Feb. Just sayin, if this winter should decide to fall on it's sword, I wouldn't be disappointed in the least.