February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[jcmcgaffey]

FV3 shows WAY more snow for the Seattle area on Sunday night and Monday morning.

Side topic but I swear is there any correlation with models showing better solutions at night? I feel like over the years the late night model runs end up being more exciting than the rest of the day. May just be that everyone is home around the late night model runs so more responses.

[Kayla]

If I were 1936 right now I'd be sweating a little bit...Wow.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

What do you think Victoria could get from that one with the outflow enhancing the precipitation?

I'm not too familiar with your outflow situations up there compared to down here but I know you guys can get absolutely dumped on. Like what happened in December 1996.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

For the love of God.

 

On a more serious note, the EURO EPS has been showing this possibility for quite some time now. This might sound crazy but I put the odds over 50% on this happening as of right now.

[Requiem]

I'm not too familiar with your outflow situations up there compared to down here but I know you guys can get absolutely dumped on. Like what happened in December 1996.

 

We all know what happened down here that month....would be scary to experience an ice storm that heavy again.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If I were 1936 right now I'd be sweating a little bit...Wow.

 

Really to get into the top 5 coldest Februaries for the Willamette Valley we'd probably need to see a run like this verify...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I mentioned it earlier, but that 1922-1936 period had 6 of the 11 coldest Februaries in the 127 year period of record at SLE. Great era for cold. 

[BLI snowman]

If I were 1936 right now I'd be sweating a little bit...Wow.

 

 

GFS basically shows a February version of January 1950. Massive -PNA block with shortwaves repeatedly dropping in around it while the East torches.

[Requiem]

Sad to say, but it only goes downhill in terms of runs from here.

[Kayla]

Really to get into the top 5 coldest Februaries for the Willamette Valley we'd probably need to see a run like this verify...

 

Yeah. EPS also supports the idea so I'd give it a better than usual chance of actually verifying. 

[FroYoBro]

Should be a fun weekend of model riding. #modpreview

[Esquimalt]

I'm not too familiar with your outflow situations up there compared to down here but I know you guys can get absolutely dumped on. Like what happened in December 1996.

Yeah, I'm just not sure if the track of a low like that would be much of an event here and that what I was wondering you knew the answer to

[Frontal Snowsquall]

We all know what happened down here that month....would be scary to experience an ice storm that heavy again.

Yeah that was an epic ice storm for the East side. Hopefully we get snow instead of ice.

[Kayla]

GFS basically shows a February version of January 1950. Massive -PNA block with shortwaves repeatedly dropping in around it while the East torches.

 

Uncharted territory for February.

[BLI snowman]

Looking like the 8-9 rule may get to live to see another decade....

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Any features right now being modeled that hint at the end of the pattern change? I figure if those are absent, then this adds weight to 3-5 weeks of cold.

As of right now, no. I've been following some Mets who have been talking about the Bering Sea Rule and their saying this pattern will hold up until early March.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

As much as I distrust the WRF snowfall maps they do show snow over Seattle on Sunday night now:

 

[Kayla]

Looking like the 8-9 rule may get to live to see another decade....

 

Might be a good time to move back to SW Washington...

[Esquimalt]

As much as I distrust the WRF snowfall maps they do show snow over Seattle on Sunday night now:

 

Any feelings that Sunday will feature something special here?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

GFS basically shows a February version of January 1950. Massive -PNA block with shortwaves repeatedly dropping in around it while the East torches.

Yeah, like what Snow Wizard was saying, this could be an all time historic February for the PNW.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The s valley should hopefully be able to get above 91-92, 02-03, and 14-15 in the rankings by this time next week.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Yeah, I'm just not sure if the track of a low like that would be much of an event here and that what I was wondering you knew the answer to

I don't want to give you a false answer because I really don't know. You can ask ShawniganLake.

[BLI snowman]

Might be a good time to move back to SW Washington...

 

Drought needs to end first.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Looking like the 8-9 rule may get to live to see another decade....

It doesn't matter if it's high solar, low solar, El Nino or La Nina. They always deliver!

[ShawniganLake]

As much as I distrust the WRF snowfall maps they do show snow over Seattle on Sunday night now:

 

You can clearly see the Howe sound outflow in the snow maps.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

FWIW

 

[Esquimalt]

You can clearly see the Howe sound outflow in the snow maps.

What do you think of the snow setup on Sunday?

[Gradient Keeper]

OMG after seeing Andrew's posts I was so excited I pooped with the toilet seat up! and I didn't even care! Sure, it was messy and smelled, but OMG did you see that incredibly historically historic pattern? !!!! What we're seeing on the 00z GEM and GFS is the EPS pattern unfolding on the operational runs.

 

00z ECMWF in 26 minutes

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Any feelings that Sunday will feature something special here?

 

I'm looking more to the 925mb temperature and upper level pattern at this point. I think there's lot of potential for surprise snowfall on Sunday; I doubt totals look anything like what the WRF is showing right now. With most models showing a low developing over the island on Sunday it's hard to see how there could be as little precipitation as the WRF is showing in that timeframe. 

[Requiem]

OMG after seeing Andrew's posts I was so excited I pooped with the toilet seat up! and I didn't even care! Sure, it was messy and smelled, but OMG did you see that incredibly historically historic pattern? !!!! What we're seeing on the 00z GEM and GFS is the EPS pattern unfolding on the operational runs.

 

00z ECMWF in 26 minutes

 

I'm very excited but also very scared because I know how quickly things fall apart here.

[Jesse]

Model porn.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

OMG after seeing Andrew's posts I was so excited I pooped with the toilet seat up! and I didn't even care! Sure, it was messy and smelled, but OMG did you see that incredibly historically historic pattern? !!!! What we're seeing on the 00z GEM and GFS is the EPS pattern unfolding on the operational runs.

 

00z ECMWF in 26 minutes

I get excited easily but this is easily the most excited I've ever been in my lifetime of following weather. I'm not going to get much sleep over the next month.

[Esquimalt]

I'm looking more to the 925mb temperature and upper level pattern at this point. I think there's lot of potential for surprise snowfall on Sunday; I doubt totals look anything like what the WRF is showing right now. With most models showing a low developing over the island on Sunday it's hard to see how there could be as little precipitation as the WRF is showing in that timeframe.

I agree. I feel most of the ingredients are there--it's almost like the models are underestimating the straight effect snows.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I get excited easily but this is easily the most excited I've ever been in my lifetime of following weather. I'm not going to get much sleep over the next month.

 

December 2008 was pretty good...

[luvssnow_spokane]

I’m still scarred by our parking lot tree and sunangle arguments of 2011.

I am still haunted by the way to early postings showing cherry tree blossoms and crocuses blooming. I am still scared and angry!

[Requiem]

I get excited easily but this is easily the most excited I've ever been in my lifetime of following weather. I'm not going to get much sleep over the next month.

 

No way. I don't believe that for a second. Even in the midst of 1/10/17? Just before 12/20/08? This takes the cake? I'm honestly a little skeptical, last year a major pattern was also advertised but that one seemed to end pretty quickly...

[VancouverIslandSouth]

You can clearly see the Howe sound outflow in the snow maps.

 

Yep, the timing is a bit strange though. I'd expect it to start far earlier than the WRF has it, based on when the outflow starts.

[TT-SEA]

No precip maps yet... but the FV3 looks sort of like the GFS for later next week.  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

No way. I don't believe that for a second. Even in the midst of 1/10/17? Just before 12/20/08? This takes the cake? I'm honestly a little skeptical, last year a major pattern was also advertised but that one seemed to end pretty quickly...

January 2017 I wasn't expecting much.

 

December 2008 I was just getting into weather and at the same time I was just starting college so I was stressed out that December with Finals. Didn't get to model ride it much leading up to the event.

[GHweatherChris]

FWIW

 

That sucks...