February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[Jbolin]

Most of the structures that caved in were probable not built to snow code. After that storm that was the findings of many structures at least in this area around me.

It literally did not matter what type of building it was, carports, sheds, marina's, warehouses etc. 

 

It all came crashing down, biggest IMHO was the marina in Mukilteo 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It literally did not matter what type of building it was, carports, sheds, marina's, warehouses etc. 

It all came crashing down, biggest IMHO was the marina in Mukilteo

 

Ya the Port Orchard marina sunk along with about 50 boats. It was really a strange sight to see all the boats under the water.

[GHweatherChris]

[Esquimalt]

HRDPS and RGEM both show favourable solutions for this region, each with approximately 3 inches accumulation. Hoping for a good trend in the homestretch. Just checked the wrf and HRRR. Both show a low developing in the sweet spot for snow here, just south west of neah bay. Here’s praying this comes true.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just need heavy precip rates pls.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

18z looks pretty lost in the long range (like 10+ days out). What a mess of a pattern.

 

Lots of opportunity between now and then, though.

 

Looks like it might come through at the end:

 

[Guest hawkstwelve]

It's been a while since I've left for a few hours and come back to 8+ pages to catch-up on.

 

Always a good feeling.

[Jesse]

I have a feeling this thread is going to have more than 400 pages.

Top tier page count.

[Dave]

This looks like a marginal event in the south valley. In these cases TWL usually does better than dolt.

[Esquimalt]

Looks like it might come through at the end:

 

Mesoscale models are starting to look favourable for us tomorrow

 

Also did you see the FV3 output for late this week?  Crazy stuff

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Reading the portland discussion i hate when they say sh.t like" the good news is the snow level will be above 1000ft by the end of the week". Listin F.ck stick it can be above 1000ft for 355 days a year can we have like ten??!!! F.CK OFF DUDE.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

This looks like a marginal event in the south valley. In these cases TWL usually does better than dolt.

 

Upsloping will hopefully help. Thinking good thoughts for you and especially Corvallis and Monmouth would be nice for them to break the streak.

[epiceast]

Yeah your right. If there's solid snowcover in the Columbia River Basin, that will help to even further build and entrench that cold pool.

 

Pendleton pretty hawkish on the snow, at least compared to wrf maps(no reduction). Most importantly, the gorge and Oregon columbia basin are going to have a DEEP snowpack which would help PDX a lot in the reload, which is usually the weakest spot due to warm airs damming up the foothills.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Mesoscale models are starting to look favourable for us tomorrow

 

Also did you see the FV3 output for late this week?  Crazy stuff

 

Definitely a pattern high in opportunities, but I'm going to wait until we get through tomorrow before paying much attention to what's being shown late week. It's getting to the point where we can start tracking things developing in real time.

[Esquimalt]

Reading the portland discussion i hate when they say sh.t like" the good news is the snow level will be above 1000ft by the end of the week". Listin F.ck stick it can be above 1000ft for 355 days a year can we have like ten??!!! F.CK OFF DUDE.

Yeah so many people in this part of the world come here to avoid the snow.  It's pathetic and it's annoys me when people are like that almost as much as the climate here annoys me.

[Blizzard777]

Do you have the fan aspirated radiation shield?

I honestly don’t know the answer since I don’t have the heated gauge, but my guess is the aspirated sensor shield would provide the lowest risk of thermal contamination.

I do have that so will see what happens. Live and learn

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I hope that model is wrong. I can't imagine Seattle getting none.

It only goes out to 48 hours so there might be some snow after that or maybe not. Here is what it shows at Monday 10am. There's a deformation band but it's over Central Washington. It never develops west of the Cascades. The HRDPS doesn't have a long track record but from the short time I've followed it, it's done well. I hope it's wrong too because of the fact it never really shows the deformation band over us here along the I-5 corridor.

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

 

Pendleton pretty hawkish on the snow, at least compared to wrf maps(no reduction). Most importantly, the gorge and Oregon columbia basin are going to have a DEEP snowpack which would help PDX a lot in the reload, which is usually the weakest spot due to warm airs damming up the foothills.

Oh wow that's great news! I wasn't really expecting them to get that much so that's a pleasant surprise. Yeah, I get warm tongued before other places sometimes here living in Gresham. I really don't know the last time we had a deep snowcovered CRB before Arctic air came flooding in. This is a huge bonus for us.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

FV-3 wasn't bad.

[Jesse]

It only goes out to 48 hours so there might be some snow after that or maybe not. Here is what it shows at Monday 10am. There's a deformation band but it's over Central Washington. It never develops west of the Cascades. The HRDPS doesn't have a long track record but from the short time I've followed it, it's done well. I hope it's wrong too because of the fact it never really shows the deformation band over us here along the I-5 corridor.

 

 

That's a high amount of lows.

[Guest Sounder]

Lol. Pot meet kettle.

 

 

This motherf**ker’s lack of self-awareness is astounding. BTW, isn’t that one of the canonical symptoms of autism and aspergers that he keeps talking about?

Huh? Silly goose, I have never once claimed to have any semblance of informed or meaningful analysis re: climate and weather here. I'm a total layman who just likes interesting weather.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Pretty conservative forecast from Seattle office. Good news though because this one will probably sting em real good.

[GHweatherChris]

Pretty conservative forecast from Seattle office. Good news though because this one will probably sting em real good.

AFD isn't out yet?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

AFD isn't out yet?

Nope.

[ShawniganLake]

That's a high amount of lows.

Imagine all the 12”+ deformation bands. Crazy!

 

I’m not sure why some mesoscale models do that with so many lows showing up

[GHweatherChris]

Nope.

Ah, I see your zone forecast was updated, mine isn't yet.

[Esquimalt]

Imagine all the 12”+ deformation bands. Crazy!

 

I’m not sure why some mesoscale models do that with so many lows showing up

Nice environment canada forecast out for Victoria tonight.  I think I would mostly agree, but I'd be on edge if I was them

[Cloud]

Cliff Mass says 2-4” for Seattle.

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2019/02/increasing-potential-for-lowland-snow.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&m=1

[Perturbed Member]

Reading the portland discussion i hate when they say sh.t like" the good news is the snow level will be above 1000ft by the end of the week". Listin F.ck stick it can be above 1000ft for 355 days a year can we have like ten??!!! F.CK OFF DUDE.

 

I find it irritating as well, though PDX NWS has at least one guy who is clearly a fan of snow. Probably more than one given they are so trigger happy with their WSWs.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

They need to a get a 'Northwest U.S.' map working for that model!

Pivotal weather has one. Comes out later though

[Frontal Snowsquall]

That's a high amount of lows.

I've seen the higher resolution models show multiple lows but nothing to this extent. It practically covers the entire state of Oregon. I will take it as a great sign of things to come.

[Requiem]

I find it irritating as well, though PDX NWS has at least one guy who is clearly a fan of snow. Probably more than one given they are so trigger happy with their WSWs.

 

They all seem less than excited with the possible long period of cold temperatures shown by various models, so....

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Certainly a strange looking pattern. One low well offshore, one low over California and Arctic air pushing in between:

 

 

Clear outflow induced sea-effect snow now hitting eastern Haida Gwaii:

 

http://images.drivebc.ca/bchighwaycam/pub/cameras/197.jpg

 

It must suck not having radar coverage up there.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Reading the portland discussion i hate when they say sh.t like" the good news is the snow level will be above 1000ft by the end of the week". Listin F.ck stick it can be above 1000ft for 355 days a year can we have like ten??!!! F.CK OFF DUDE.

Yeah, that pisses me off too when I see that.

[Esquimalt]

Certainly a strange looking pattern. One low well offshore, one low over California and Arctic air pushing in between:

 

 

Clear outflow induced sea-effect snow now hitting eastern Haida Gwaii:

 

http://images.drivebc.ca/bchighwaycam/pub/cameras/197.jpg

 

It must suck not having radar coverage up there.

Tomorrow's atmosphere looks very unstable.  Get ready for some surprises

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Haha i just remembered how mad I'd get when i was in my twenties when the forecast was weak. Threw a few weather radios and even called steve pool once and yelled at him. Jesus i have grown up.

[GHweatherChris]

Seattle AFD sounds alright, better than normal.

[Esquimalt]

The HRRR has been suggesting a rather weak convergence zone of some sort will cause snow here early tomorrow morning, and the HRRR has been saying this for 3 runs now.  Hmmmm

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Current temp is 43 with very dense fog. Looks like some light deformation band precip i lifting towards me from the low down in California. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

High of 49 and now down to 47.  Hopefully no 50s for a long time. 

 

Nice d-band over Springfield right now.