February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[Frontal Snowsquall]

People can predict six feet if they wanna. Won’t make it happen but if it makes someone happy...

The placebo effect!

[Phil]

Cannot stress this enough:

 

Please correct me if I make any silly mistakes, and I'll do my best to rectify them!

Stop being a liberal and MAGA.

 

(Jk)

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The FV3 is just insane for the Puget Sound area late this week. It just snows and keeps snowing for hours.

It looks great down here for PDX too.

[seattleweatherguy]

Total snow through 4 p.m. Monday. How many time does Seattle have more snow than Snoqualmie Pass for an event?

 

I can see your maps now that I'm home and not at olive garden

[snow_wizard]

Eurasia gets frigid too..and so does the Arctic. There’s cold air all over the place, lol.

 

Also a big gold Siberian high descent and EAMT swing/IPWP MJO genesis event. Good golly miss molly.

 

 

Good things happen when all of the positive anoms are over the ocean.  I think the anomalous low pressure being shown over the tropics has much to do with keeping the mid latitude ridges so northerly based.  I pray this is the low solar activity coming home to roost.  If so we may have some fun times ahead.

[Dave]

My educated guess is that the southern valley will be buried for much of the month starting after Feb. 7th. Book it.

[Gradient Keeper]

Just woke up

 

00z ECMWF Day 6

 

[Deweydog]

Tepid goes decent at 144 hours!!!

[snow_wizard]

I feel like it's worth noting that the FV3 picked up on this first round of cold almost 12 days ago and more or less stuck to it this entire time. That's a pretty impressive result as far as the broader pattern goes.

 

 

It and the Euro ensemble have been the stars in this thing so far.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

High/lows at SLE Monday-Thursday

 

38/31

37/24

42/21

37/24

 

Coldest Mon-Thursday period yet.

[snow_wizard]

Just woke up

 

00z ECMWF Day 6

 

 

Holy mother of God!!!  Wow!!!!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Just woke up

 

00z ECMWF Day 6

 

Looks snowy!

[Esquimalt]

Tim how does the Friday event look on the euro?

[TT-SEA]

It is worth noting that the axis of the deformation band on Monday morning shifted significantly to the south and west from the 12Z ECMWF to the 00Z run.

 

If that trend continues tomorrow than it will be a different story for Seattle and Portland.  

[snow_wizard]

This is like a dream!  If the models keep up this good we might have to look at the all time great Februaries as being the best analogs.

[Guest Sounder]

It and the Euro ensemble have been the stars in this thing so far.

Can't believe those stupid commies in Europe managed to make a decent model!!!

[snow_wizard]

Looks snowy!

 

 

That frame is utterly gorgeous!  Porn.

[Deweydog]

Looks 2-12-95ish.

[TT-SEA]

Tim how does the Friday event look on the euro?

 

Not updated yet.  

[snow_wizard]

Can't believe those stupid commies in Europe managed to make a decent model!!!

 

 

I guess I had that one coming.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Jim what is the largest 24hr snow for the puget sound in February?

[Jesse]

Looks 2-12-95ish.

Minus being bookended by a total torch.

[seattleweatherguy]

It is worth noting that the axis of the deformation band on Monday morning shifted significantly to the south and west from the 12Z ECMWF to the 00Z run.

 

If that trend continues tomorrow than it will be a different story for Seattle and Portland.

Good or bad?

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

 

[Phil]

Good things happen when all of the positive anoms are over the ocean. I think the anomalous low pressure being shown over the tropics has much to do with keeping the mid latitude ridges so northerly based. I pray this is the low solar activity coming home to roost. If so we may have some fun times ahead.

No doubt solar minimum is beginning to affect the upper troposphere and stratosphere (both photochemically and thermally), and this in conjunction with the SSW/MQI has reduced static stability in the tropics. This has invigorated the intraseasonal cycle, and seems to be aiding in a reorganization of the RWB structure to some degree. It’s very interesting.

[TT-SEA]

Second event... just through 10 a.m. on Friday and its still snowing.

 

[Guest Sounder]

Day 7

 

I'm really going to get a kick out of the pictures of the Golden Gate Bridge covered in snow that are coming.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Big time snow Kelso to north of Seattle on Friday! Big event up here too. 

 

[Esquimalt]

No doubt solar minimum is beginning to affect the upper troposphere and stratosphere (both photochemically and thermally), and this in conjunction with the SSW/MQI has reduced static stability in the tropics, which has invigorated the intraseasonal cycle and seems to be aiding in a reorganization of the RWB structure to some degree.

Do you think this is gonna remove us from the 2013-2018 climate era?

[Deweydog]

Minus being bookended by a total torch.

Minus teens for lows!!!

[snow_wizard]

Major snowstorm in Seattle on Friday according to the Euro.

[Requiem]

Second event... just through 10 a.m. on Friday and its still snowing.

 

 

EURO seems like it's a gigantic fan of leaving the Valley out of stuff.

[GHweatherChris]

Blah

[Guest Sounder]

EURO seems like it's a gigantic fan of leaving the Valley out of stuff.

You should really stop reading so much into the surface details for things more than 3 days out.

[Deweydog]

F*ck.

[HighlandExperience]

Major snowstorm in Seattle on Friday according to the Euro.

 

This might surpass 2008

[Phil]

Can't believe those stupid commies in Europe managed to make a decent model!!!

Funny thing is the ECMWF is private sector, while NCEP/GFS relies on public money.

 

Might be best if NOAA sold the GFS to IBM and let them fix it as opposed to wasting billions of our tax dollars on so-called “upgrades” that show no demonstrable improvement (IE: the FV3).

[Deweydog]

Euro keeps with the splitty theme.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Our climate sucks!!

[Requiem]

You should really stop reading so much into the surface details for things more than 3 days out.

 

I know, but it's exceedingly annoying to see EURO constantly shunt the snow to the North.