February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[GHweatherChris]

[Guest hawkstwelve]

18z Euro looking just as snowy as the 12z. Maybe a little less overall but pretty close.

 

Shows snow really picking up starting around 10PM tonight and continuing until 1PM tomorrow.

 

[Geos]

31.1* here now. Can see signs of slushy accumulation on the road now. 

[Timmy]

18z Euro looking just as snowy as the 12z. Maybe a little less overall but pretty close.

 

Shows snow really picking up starting around 10PM tonight and continuing until 1PM tomorrow.

 

Can you post Oregon?

[MikeInEverett]

18z Euro looking just as snowy as the 12z. Maybe a little less overall but pretty close.

 

Shows snow really picking up starting around 10PM tonight and continuing until 1PM tomorrow.

 

Wow, add that to what I already have now and that would have me at about 6”.

[Guest hawkstwelve]

Can you post Oregon?

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Main snow period for King County is early tomorrow morning.

Why is anyone talking about running out of moisture??

I know. The low is just now coming off Vancuver island. Looks like chris should start to score around 7 or 8pm tonight according the the meso models.

[Deweydog]

Third runway looks like it’s kicking in at SeaTac.

[Requiem]

 

God, that's bad. Well, I guess I'll look forward to the snow pictures instead.

[Blizzard777]

Burst of snow a little bit ago and now wet snow 36*

Still a very light south wind

[Guest hawkstwelve]

Radar changed to all snow throughout Western WA in the last couple frames.

 

Nice to have the complete changeover occur before the modeled time (on some models). That's pretty rare as normally models are too quick to bring in the cold air.

[GHweatherChris]

Test

[TT-SEA]

You can see the band pivoting now and becoming a deformation zone.

 

The returns up around the San Juan islands are moving to the SW and down here in central King County they are moving to the NE.

 

[snow_wizard]

Snowing pretty hard and down to 36 now.  Color me surprised the NWS didn't go with an advisory.

[Perturbed Member]

God, that's bad. Well, I guess I'll look forward to the snow pictures instead.

 

Yep, this one will be a Seattle special. GFS and Euro both shaft southern areas with it. Should be a non-event unless you believe the NAM. 

[Geos]

18z Euro looking just as snowy as the 12z. Maybe a little less overall but pretty close.

 

Shows snow really picking up starting around 10PM tonight and continuing until 1PM tomorrow.

 

 

I'll take 4"

 

Grass is almost covered now here. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 

Still looking good for 2-4" here.

[Perturbed Member]

No radar to work with but we can see it is starting to dump on the coast range. 

 

[snow maniac]

So far non-event here,hoping later tonight.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I see Seattle down to 34 with 18mph N wind now. Outstanding. 

[seattleweatherguy]

The question is when will it stick to the cement

[Requiem]

Yep, this one will be a Seattle special. GFS and Euro both shaft southern areas with it. Should be a non-event unless you believe the NAM. 

 

That's a recurring theme this season- Seattle getting all the stormy weather and major rain. I hope we can eek out an inch by the time this cold outbreak is over.

[Timmy]

Ouch, the euro showed 6”+ here just 48 hours ago. Down looks like a dusting...

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[TT-SEA]

Ouch, the euro showed 6”+ here just 48 hours ago. Down looks like a dusting...

 

 

That map is only through 1 p.m. tomorrow

[epiceast]

Man this is an interesting low pressure position. Still dumping rain in Walla Walla...

[TT-SEA]

Just started snowing here... huge flakes and dead calm.  

[BLI snowman]

Yep, this one will be a Seattle special. GFS and Euro both shaft southern areas with it. Should be a non-event unless you believe the NAM. 

 

Our best dynamics with the deformation zone may be after that. That map ends at 1pm tomorrow. That being said, more than an inch looks exceedingly improbable.

[GHweatherChris]

Test

[Requiem]

Our best dynamics with the deformation zone may be after that. That map ends at 1pm tomorrow. That being said, more than an inch looks exceedingly improbable.

 

I'll be happy to get a dusting at this point. 

[snow_wizard]

Snowing hard and sticking here.  The ground is white already.

[snow_wizard]

Radar changed to all snow throughout Western WA in the last couple frames.

 

Nice to have the complete changeover occur before the modeled time (on some models). That's pretty rare as normally models are too quick to bring in the cold air.

 

That's because the air coming off the ocean is cold enough for snow.  Didn't have to wait for the Arctic front.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Our best dynamics with the deformation zone may be after that. That map ends at 1pm tomorrow. That being said, more than an inch looks exceedingly improbable.

 

Time to enjoy what look to be may days of negative temperature anomalies. 

[Requiem]

Time to enjoy what look to be may days of negative temperature anomalies. 

 

Cold without the snow, I guess.

[Perturbed Member]

Our best dynamics with the deformation zone may be after that. That map ends at 1pm tomorrow. That being said, more than an inch looks exceedingly improbable.

 

Yep, the new target is trying to get just enough snow to coat things and make it look wintry. Might have a shot at that one still. 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Received about an inch of slop, but now fine, powdery snow is falling.  Working on that second inch

[dairyd]

Cliff Mass is going with his WRF and said the ECMWF was an extreme outlier. 

 

He is going to be eating crow tomorrow.   

 

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2019/02/cold-and-snow-enter-western-washington.html

 

The big problem is lack of precipitation...this is NOT a wet system for us, partially because the upper trough and low center is too far offshore.    Temperatures will cool below freezing tonight in Puget Sound and even cooler Monday night/Tuesday morning.   Snow amounts will vary greatly, but generally will be light.  Seattle will get perhaps .5 to 1 inch of snowfall, but accumulation will be hampered by our generally warm roadway surfaces.    But don't be shocked if central Puget Sound gets very little or a bit more....there is substantial uncertainty in this kind of forecast.

not the first nw met to be burned by an upper level trough, won't be the last

[GHweatherChris]

Test

[dairyd]

That's because the air coming off the ocean is cold enough for snow.  Didn't have to wait for the Arctic front.

 

that's the beauty of these cold-core sliders

[TT-SEA]

not the first nw met to be burned by an upper level trough, won't be the last

 

 

Don't doubt the ECMWF within close range... you are asking to be burned otherwise.