bainbridgekid Posted February 4, 2019 Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 Snow caked at the 112th exit in Everett. Down to 32° from 33° per the car thermometer.I live off 112th about a mile West of the freeway. Getting close to 2" here now and it just started sticking to the roads here in the last 10 minutes! Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dairyd Posted February 4, 2019 Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 This is a done deal for the Seattle area... tomorrow morning is going to be crazy around here. Freeways will be a mess. they could use this thing called salt.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 4, 2019 Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 This is a done deal for the Seattle area... tomorrow morning is going to be crazy around here. Freeways will be a mess. Hope so. I want gridlock of ice. No work =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 4, 2019 Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 Langley radar looks like the energy is sagging south. Hrrr has also been consistent with snow in the valley from about 10pm to 5-6am. 3KM NAM and HRRR both more or less agree on this, claiming all snow by midnight from an organized band. Temps initially a bit warm but drop to freezing overnight. Pretty similar results to the 3km NAM on the snowfall map as well. I think there will be plenty of snow in the air overnight but am skeptical of the snow accumulation given that the euro and GFS basically give us nothing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted February 4, 2019 Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 Nws claims not enough moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeInEverett Posted February 4, 2019 Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 https://youtu.be/rIoqwOe6KbA This is what tomorrow morning may look like for Seattle. (Previous name: MillCreekMike) Everett, WA (elev. 180’) 2023-2024 Snowfall: 1/11: Tr. 1/18: Tr. Go M’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prairiedog Posted February 4, 2019 Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 AFD for Portland for Wed thru the rest of the week. Interesting. I'm sure they're not taking a bite of the apple yet l because of model uncertainty. I think the precip amts might align but the temps seem a bit conservative?. Friday the models do look to bump freezing levels up but its beyond that I want to see what they have to say. Long term...Wednesday night through Sunday...models continue toshow another series of upper level disturbances dropping south outof the Gulf of Alaska late next week. Unfortunately, there remainsconsiderable uncertainty with the track and timing of these systems,with ensemble guidance showing a wide range of possibilities. As ofnow, the general consensus is to bring a slug of moisture across theregion on Thursday, with additional shots of moisture through mostof the weekend. The good news is that snow levels over much of ourarea look to generally rise above 1000 ft by Friday so the threat oflow elevation snow late next week and over the weekend looks minimalat the moment, but this will all depend on how much cold air filtersdown into our forecast area. All in all, expect somewhat seasonableweather through next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted February 4, 2019 Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 Current Version Previous Version: 1 2 3 4 5 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FXUS66 KSEW 040046 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 446 PM PST Sun Feb 3 2019 .SYNOPSIS...Cold air will continue to spill out of British Columbia through Monday while an upper level low moves southward offshore. This combination will give most of the area snow showers through at least Monday morning. Dry but cool weather is expected Tuesday and Wednesday. Another round of cold and unsettled weather is expected Thursday through next weekend. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...Just a little busy here at NWS Seattle this afternoon. Doppler radar shows broad area of convergence from King county into Whatcom county. Satellite imagery shows upper level low over the northern tip of Vancouver Island with shower bands rotating around the low off the coast. Doppler radar has the first of these bands just offshore at 00z/4 pm. Temperatures at 4 pm were in the 30s. Here is the current thinking on the snow forecast. Convergence area, which did not form because of the cold air moving out of British Columbia but because of the westerlies through the Strait earlier today combined with southerly up the Puget Sound and the cold air aloft, will diminish this evening with the flow through the Strait going easterly. There still will be an area of convergence as the cold air spills out of British Columbia but this area will not cover near as much area as the current convergence. Have a winter weather advisory for another inch of snow in Snohomish, Skagit and Whatcom counties this evening with the convergence. Next up the shower band currently offshore moving inland over the southern portion of the area tonight. Temperatures are currently just above freezing but dew points are below freezing so once the precipitation begins temperatures will fall and the precipitation type will change from rain to snow this evening. Precipitation amounts to not look very heavy 0.20 inches or less overnight into early Monday morning. Have issued a snow advisory for the central Coast, Lower Chehalis valley and Southwest Interior for up to two inches of snow through early Monday morning. Snow advisory also up for the Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca and the Admiralty Inlet area with some upslope flow into the northern slopes of the Olympics enhancing the precipitation rates later tonight into Monday morning. So where does this leave the metro area??? Once the convergence lifts north this evening there will be a little break in the precipitation over the central Puget Sound area. Temperatures in the metro area are currently in the lower to mid 30s. Precipitation rates are light and the temperatures are marginal. While there will be snow in the air for the evening hours with the light precipitation rates only going to forecast up to an inch overnight into early Monday morning. Monday morning, most of the models are still developing a deformation zone somewhere over the central and southern portion of the interior Monday morning. As previously mentioned it is hard to pin down the exact location and intensity of this feature with much lead time. A couple of model trends are a little worrisome about the development of this feature, one the upper level low southward movement is slower than the models have predicted which means two the cold air is still somewhat bottled up to the north. Less low level convergence will result in lower precipitation amounts if the deformation zone forms. For this forecast package will have a possible addition up to an inch of snow accumulation over the central interior including the Puget Sound region in the 4 am to 10 am window. Outside of the deformation zone showers will still be rotating around the low with the best chances for accumulating snow over the southern portion of the area. With another inch or so of accumulation possible the snow advisory for the Southwest Interior will continue until 1 pm. Upslope flow into the northern slopes of the Olympics will also continue through the morning hours will another 1 to 2 inches of snow possible along the Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca keeping the winter weather advisory going there until 1 pm as well. Monday afternoon, upper level low moving slowly south offshore pulling the moisture with it south of the area. With the low moving a little slower than the model forecasts have extended the chance for snow showers from about Skagit county southward into the early afternoon hours. By late afternoon the snow shower chances will be confined to the southeast portion of the area. Highs on Monday will be cool, only in the 30s with some places near the Canadian border remaining in the 20s. Drying trend Monday night as the low continues to move south with a sunny but cool day expected on Tuesday. With the clearing skies the cooler locations will fall into the teens Monday night. Highs on Tuesday will be in the 30s and lower 40s. Here is the current thinking on the wind. High wind warning still in effect for San Juan as well as Western Whatcom and Skagit counties beginning this evening and continuing into Monday night. Cold air a little behind schedule but the winds at Ferndale are up to 20 mph gusting to 40 mph at 4 pm. Winds will continue to increase over the Northwest interior overnight as the Bellingham to Williams Lake gradient becoming more negative as the much colder air over British Columbia cools even more overnight ( the temperature at Williams Lake at 4 pm was 11 below zero ). The forecast of northeast winds 25 to 45 mph with gusts as high as 55 mph through Monday night remains intact. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...Little change in the extended forecast this afternoon. Models continuing with the idea of another cool upper level low moving down close to the area toward the end of the week with another round of low snow levels. Timing of the feature still inconsistent among the models so will continue with the broad brush idea of chance pops through the period with below normal temperatures. Felton && .AVIATION...An upper low southwest of Vancouver Island will drop southward over the offshore waters tonight and into the Oregon waters on Monday. Southwesterly flow aloft will become southeasterly Monday morning. At low levels, strong northeast to north flow will gradually spread southward across the region through early Monday as low pressure passes by to the west and southwest and high pressure remains over the interior of British Columbia. The air mass will be moist and somewhat stable through Monday morning. Low MVFR and areas of IFR ceilings in snow showers are expected through Monday. VFR ceilings could develop across the far north portion of the area early Monday as dry, colder air filters into the region. Ceilings will improve to VFR over the Puget Sound area Monday afternoon. KSEA...MVFR with periods of IFR persisting tonight into Monday AM. Snow showers developing...with accumulations of 1-2 inches at the terminal most likely occurring between 05Z and 15Z. Some improvement in ceilings expected Monday afternoon as drier air filters into the area. Surface winds shifting to northerly 01Z-03Z and rising to 10 to 15 gusting 20 to 25 knots toward 12Z Monday. 27 && .MARINE...Flow will turn strongly offshore late today as a surface low moves south over the offshore waters and a surface ridge strengthens over the interior of British Columbia. Fraser outflow will continue through Monday night. Gale force wind over the northern inland waters this evening will spread to the Strait of Juan de Fuca and adjacent coastal waters late tonight. Small craft advisory strength winds will occur across the remainder of the inland waters. Winds will ease on Tuesday as the outflow weakens. 27 .HYDROLOGY...River flooding not expected in the next 7 days. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM PST Monday for Lower Chehalis Valley Area-Southwest Interior. High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM PST Tuesday for San Juan County-Western Skagit County-Western Whatcom County. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Everett and Vicinity-Western Skagit County-Western Whatcom County. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM PST Monday for Central Coast. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM PST Monday for Admiralty Inlet Area-Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca-Western Strait of Juan De Fuca. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Monday for Admiralty Inlet- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. Gale Warning until 4 PM PST Monday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Gale Warning until 4 AM PST Tuesday for Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Monday for Puget Sound and Hood Canal. && www.weather.gov/seattle 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 4, 2019 Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 Current Version Previous Version: 1 2 3 4 5 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FXUS66 KSEW 040046 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 446 PM PST Sun Feb 3 2019 .SYNOPSIS...Cold air will continue to spill out of British Columbia through Monday while an upper level low moves southward offshore. This combination will give most of the area snow showers through at least Monday morning. Dry but cool weather is expected Tuesday and Wednesday. Another round of cold and unsettled weather is expected Thursday through next weekend. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...Just a little busy here at NWS Seattle this afternoon. Doppler radar shows broad area of convergence from King county into Whatcom county. Satellite imagery shows upper level low over the northern tip of Vancouver Island with shower bands rotating around the low off the coast. Doppler radar has the first of these bands just offshore at 00z/4 pm. Temperatures at 4 pm were in the 30s. Here is the current thinking on the snow forecast. Convergence area, which did not form because of the cold air moving out of British Columbia but because of the westerlies through the Strait earlier today combined with southerly up the Puget Sound and the cold air aloft, will diminish this evening with the flow through the Strait going easterly. There still will be an area of convergence as the cold air spills out of British Columbia but this area will not cover near as much area as the current convergence. Have a winter weather advisory for another inch of snow in Snohomish, Skagit and Whatcom counties this evening with the convergence. Next up the shower band currently offshore moving inland over the southern portion of the area tonight. Temperatures are currently just above freezing but dew points are below freezing so once the precipitation begins temperatures will fall and the precipitation type will change from rain to snow this evening. Precipitation amounts to not look very heavy 0.20 inches or less overnight into early Monday morning. Have issued a snow advisory for the central Coast, Lower Chehalis valley and Southwest Interior for up to two inches of snow through early Monday morning. Snow advisory also up for the Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca and the Admiralty Inlet area with some upslope flow into the northern slopes of the Olympics enhancing the precipitation rates later tonight into Monday morning. So where does this leave the metro area??? Once the convergence lifts north this evening there will be a little break in the precipitation over the central Puget Sound area. Temperatures in the metro area are currently in the lower to mid 30s. Precipitation rates are light and the temperatures are marginal. While there will be snow in the air for the evening hours with the light precipitation rates only going to forecast up to an inch overnight into early Monday morning. Monday morning, most of the models are still developing a deformation zone somewhere over the central and southern portion of the interior Monday morning. As previously mentioned it is hard to pin down the exact location and intensity of this feature with much lead time. A couple of model trends are a little worrisome about the development of this feature, one the upper level low southward movement is slower than the models have predicted which means two the cold air is still somewhat bottled up to the north. Less low level convergence will result in lower precipitation amounts if the deformation zone forms. For this forecast package will have a possible addition up to an inch of snow accumulation over the central interior including the Puget Sound region in the 4 am to 10 am window. Outside of the deformation zone showers will still be rotating around the low with the best chances for accumulating snow over the southern portion of the area. With another inch or so of accumulation possible the snow advisory for the Southwest Interior will continue until 1 pm. Upslope flow into the northern slopes of the Olympics will also continue through the morning hours will another 1 to 2 inches of snow possible along the Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca keeping the winter weather advisory going there until 1 pm as well. Monday afternoon, upper level low moving slowly south offshore pulling the moisture with it south of the area. With the low moving a little slower than the model forecasts have extended the chance for snow showers from about Skagit county southward into the early afternoon hours. By late afternoon the snow shower chances will be confined to the southeast portion of the area. Highs on Monday will be cool, only in the 30s with some places near the Canadian border remaining in the 20s. Drying trend Monday night as the low continues to move south with a sunny but cool day expected on Tuesday. With the clearing skies the cooler locations will fall into the teens Monday night. Highs on Tuesday will be in the 30s and lower 40s. Here is the current thinking on the wind. High wind warning still in effect for San Juan as well as Western Whatcom and Skagit counties beginning this evening and continuing into Monday night. Cold air a little behind schedule but the winds at Ferndale are up to 20 mph gusting to 40 mph at 4 pm. Winds will continue to increase over the Northwest interior overnight as the Bellingham to Williams Lake gradient becoming more negative as the much colder air over British Columbia cools even more overnight ( the temperature at Williams Lake at 4 pm was 11 below zero ). The forecast of northeast winds 25 to 45 mph with gusts as high as 55 mph through Monday night remains intact. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...Little change in the extended forecast this afternoon. Models continuing with the idea of another cool upper level low moving down close to the area toward the end of the week with another round of low snow levels. Timing of the feature still inconsistent among the models so will continue with the broad brush idea of chance pops through the period with below normal temperatures. Felton && .AVIATION...An upper low southwest of Vancouver Island will drop southward over the offshore waters tonight and into the Oregon waters on Monday. Southwesterly flow aloft will become southeasterly Monday morning. At low levels, strong northeast to north flow will gradually spread southward across the region through early Monday as low pressure passes by to the west and southwest and high pressure remains over the interior of British Columbia. The air mass will be moist and somewhat stable through Monday morning. Low MVFR and areas of IFR ceilings in snow showers are expected through Monday. VFR ceilings could develop across the far north portion of the area early Monday as dry, colder air filters into the region. Ceilings will improve to VFR over the Puget Sound area Monday afternoon. KSEA...MVFR with periods of IFR persisting tonight into Monday AM. Snow showers developing...with accumulations of 1-2 inches at the terminal most likely occurring between 05Z and 15Z. Some improvement in ceilings expected Monday afternoon as drier air filters into the area. Surface winds shifting to northerly 01Z-03Z and rising to 10 to 15 gusting 20 to 25 knots toward 12Z Monday. 27 && .MARINE...Flow will turn strongly offshore late today as a surface low moves south over the offshore waters and a surface ridge strengthens over the interior of British Columbia. Fraser outflow will continue through Monday night. Gale force wind over the northern inland waters this evening will spread to the Strait of Juan de Fuca and adjacent coastal waters late tonight. Small craft advisory strength winds will occur across the remainder of the inland waters. Winds will ease on Tuesday as the outflow weakens. 27 .HYDROLOGY...River flooding not expected in the next 7 days. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM PST Monday for Lower Chehalis Valley Area-Southwest Interior. High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM PST Tuesday for San Juan County-Western Skagit County-Western Whatcom County. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Everett and Vicinity-Western Skagit County-Western Whatcom County. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM PST Monday for Central Coast. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM PST Monday for Admiralty Inlet Area-Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca-Western Strait of Juan De Fuca. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Monday for Admiralty Inlet- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. Gale Warning until 4 PM PST Monday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Gale Warning until 4 AM PST Tuesday for Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Monday for Puget Sound and Hood Canal. && www.weather.gov/seattleSounds good. 3 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 4, 2019 Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 Seattle NWS discussion is pretty boring. 1-2 inches mmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 4, 2019 Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 Current Version Previous Version: 1 2 3 4 5AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FXUS66 KSEW 040046AFDSEW Area Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Seattle WA446 PM PST Sun Feb 3 2019 .SYNOPSIS...Cold air will continue to spill out of BritishColumbia through Monday while an upper level low moves southwardoffshore. This combination will give most of the area snowshowers through at least Monday morning. Dry but cool weather isexpected Tuesday and Wednesday. Another round of cold andunsettled weather is expected Thursday through next weekend. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...Just a little busy hereat NWS Seattle this afternoon. Doppler radar shows broad area of convergence from King countyinto Whatcom county. Satellite imagery shows upper level low overthe northern tip of Vancouver Island with shower bands rotatingaround the low off the coast. Doppler radar has the first of thesebands just offshore at 00z/4 pm. Temperatures at 4 pm were in the30s. Here is the current thinking on the snow forecast. Convergencearea, which did not form because of the cold air moving out ofBritish Columbia but because of the westerlies through the Straitearlier today combined with southerly up the Puget Sound and thecold air aloft, will diminish this evening with the flow throughthe Strait going easterly. There still will be an area ofconvergence as the cold air spills out of British Columbia butthis area will not cover near as much area as the currentconvergence. Have a winter weather advisory for another inch ofsnow in Snohomish, Skagit and Whatcom counties this evening withthe convergence. Next up the shower band currently offshore movinginland over the southern portion of the area tonight.Temperatures are currently just above freezing but dew points arebelow freezing so once the precipitation begins temperatures willfall and the precipitation type will change from rain to snowthis evening. Precipitation amounts to not look very heavy 0.20inches or less overnight into early Monday morning. Have issued asnow advisory for the central Coast, Lower Chehalis valley andSouthwest Interior for up to two inches of snow through earlyMonday morning. Snow advisory also up for the Eastern Strait ofJuan de Fuca and the Admiralty Inlet area with some upslope flowinto the northern slopes of the Olympics enhancing theprecipitation rates later tonight into Monday morning. So where does this leave the metro area??? Once the convergencelifts north this evening there will be a little break in theprecipitation over the central Puget Sound area. Temperatures inthe metro area are currently in the lower to mid 30s.Precipitation rates are light and the temperatures are marginal.While there will be snow in the air for the evening hours withthe light precipitation rates only going to forecast up to aninch overnight into early Monday morning. Monday morning, most of the models are still developing adeformation zone somewhere over the central and southern portionof the interior Monday morning. As previously mentioned it is hardto pin down the exact location and intensity of this feature withmuch lead time. A couple of model trends are a little worrisomeabout the development of this feature, one the upper level lowsouthward movement is slower than the models have predicted whichmeans two the cold air is still somewhat bottled up to the north.Less low level convergence will result in lower precipitationamounts if the deformation zone forms. For this forecast packagewill have a possible addition up to an inch of snow accumulationover the central interior including the Puget Sound region in the4 am to 10 am window. Outside of the deformation zone showerswill still be rotating around the low with the best chances foraccumulating snow over the southern portion of the area. Withanother inch or so of accumulation possible the snow advisory forthe Southwest Interior will continue until 1 pm. Upslope flow intothe northern slopes of the Olympics will also continue throughthe morning hours will another 1 to 2 inches of snow possiblealong the Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca keeping the winterweather advisory going there until 1 pm as well. Monday afternoon, upper level low moving slowly south offshorepulling the moisture with it south of the area. With the lowmoving a little slower than the model forecasts have extended thechance for snow showers from about Skagit county southward intothe early afternoon hours. By late afternoon the snow showerchances will be confined to the southeast portion of the area.Highs on Monday will be cool, only in the 30s with some placesnear the Canadian border remaining in the 20s. Drying trend Monday night as the low continues to move south witha sunny but cool day expected on Tuesday. With the clearing skiesthe cooler locations will fall into the teens Monday night. Highson Tuesday will be in the 30s and lower 40s. Here is the current thinking on the wind. High wind warning stillin effect for San Juan as well as Western Whatcom and Skagitcounties beginning this evening and continuing into Monday night.Cold air a little behind schedule but the winds at Ferndale are upto 20 mph gusting to 40 mph at 4 pm. Winds will continue toincrease over the Northwest interior overnight as the Bellinghamto Williams Lake gradient becoming more negative as the muchcolder air over British Columbia cools even more overnight ( thetemperature at Williams Lake at 4 pm was 11 below zero ). Theforecast of northeast winds 25 to 45 mph with gusts as high as 55mph through Monday night remains intact. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...Little change in theextended forecast this afternoon. Models continuing with the ideaof another cool upper level low moving down close to the areatoward the end of the week with another round of low snow levels.Timing of the feature still inconsistent among the models so willcontinue with the broad brush idea of chance pops through theperiod with below normal temperatures. Felton && .AVIATION...An upper low southwest of Vancouver Island will dropsouthward over the offshore waters tonight and into theOregon waters on Monday. Southwesterly flow aloft will becomesoutheasterly Monday morning. At low levels, strongnortheast to north flow will gradually spread southward across theregion through early Monday as low pressure passesby to the west and southwest and high pressure remains overthe interior of British Columbia. The air mass will be moist andsomewhat stable through Monday morning. Low MVFR and areas of IFRceilings in snow showers are expected through Monday. VFRceilings could develop across the far north portion of the areaearly Monday as dry, colder air filters into the region. Ceilingswill improve to VFR over the Puget Sound area Monday afternoon. KSEA...MVFR with periods of IFR persisting tonight into Monday AM.Snow showers developing...with accumulations of 1-2 inches atthe terminal most likely occurring between 05Z and 15Z. Someimprovement in ceilings expected Monday afternoon as drier airfilters into the area. Surface winds shifting to northerly 01Z-03Zand rising to 10 to 15 gusting 20 to 25 knots toward 12Z Monday. 27 && .MARINE...Flow will turn strongly offshore late today as a surfacelow moves south over the offshore waters and a surface ridgestrengthens over the interior of British Columbia. Fraser outflowwill continue through Monday night. Gale force wind over thenorthern inland waters this evening will spread to the Strait ofJuan de Fuca and adjacent coastal waters late tonight. Small craftadvisory strength winds will occur across the remainder of theinland waters. Winds will ease on Tuesday as the outflow weakens. 27 .HYDROLOGY...River flooding not expected in the next 7 days. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM PST Monday for Lower ChehalisValley Area-Southwest Interior. High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM PST Tuesday forSan Juan County-Western Skagit County-Western WhatcomCounty. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Everettand Vicinity-Western Skagit County-Western Whatcom County. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM PST Monday for Central Coast. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM PSTMonday for Admiralty Inlet Area-Eastern Strait of Juan deFuca-Western Strait of Juan De Fuca. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Monday for Admiralty Inlet-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape ShoalwaterOut 10 Nm. Gale Warning until 4 PM PST Monday for Central U.S. WatersStrait Of Juan De Fuca-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery ToJames Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape FlatteryTo James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James IslandTo Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From PointGrenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-East Entrance U.S.Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-West Entrance U.S. WatersStrait Of Juan De Fuca. Gale Warning until 4 AM PST Tuesday for Northern Inland WatersIncluding The San Juan Islands. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Mondayfor Puget Sound and Hood Canal. && www.weather.gov/seattle Sounds great! 1 1 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 4, 2019 Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 Dead calm here... **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted February 4, 2019 Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 Must we copy and paste an AFD and then quote that post multiple times? https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 4, 2019 Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 Snowing at my mommy and daddy’s house!!! 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted February 4, 2019 Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 Current Version Previous Version: 1 2 3 4 5 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FXUS66 KSEW 040046 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 446 PM PST Sun Feb 3 2019 .SYNOPSIS...Cold air will continue to spill out of British Columbia through Monday while an upper level low moves southward offshore. This combination will give most of the area snow showers through at least Monday morning. Dry but cool weather is expected Tuesday and Wednesday. Another round of cold and unsettled weather is expected Thursday through next weekend. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...Just a little busy here at NWS Seattle this afternoon. Doppler radar shows broad area of convergence from King county into Whatcom county. Satellite imagery shows upper level low over the northern tip of Vancouver Island with shower bands rotating around the low off the coast. Doppler radar has the first of these bands just offshore at 00z/4 pm. Temperatures at 4 pm were in the 30s. Here is the current thinking on the snow forecast. Convergence area, which did not form because of the cold air moving out of British Columbia but because of the westerlies through the Strait earlier today combined with southerly up the Puget Sound and the cold air aloft, will diminish this evening with the flow through the Strait going easterly. There still will be an area of convergence as the cold air spills out of British Columbia but this area will not cover near as much area as the current convergence. Have a winter weather advisory for another inch of snow in Snohomish, Skagit and Whatcom counties this evening with the convergence. Next up the shower band currently offshore moving inland over the southern portion of the area tonight. Temperatures are currently just above freezing but dew points are below freezing so once the precipitation begins temperatures will fall and the precipitation type will change from rain to snow this evening. Precipitation amounts to not look very heavy 0.20 inches or less overnight into early Monday morning. Have issued a snow advisory for the central Coast, Lower Chehalis valley and Southwest Interior for up to two inches of snow through early Monday morning. Snow advisory also up for the Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca and the Admiralty Inlet area with some upslope flow into the northern slopes of the Olympics enhancing the precipitation rates later tonight into Monday morning. So where does this leave the metro area??? Once the convergence lifts north this evening there will be a little break in the precipitation over the central Puget Sound area. Temperatures in the metro area are currently in the lower to mid 30s. Precipitation rates are light and the temperatures are marginal. While there will be snow in the air for the evening hours with the light precipitation rates only going to forecast up to an inch overnight into early Monday morning. Monday morning, most of the models are still developing a deformation zone somewhere over the central and southern portion of the interior Monday morning. As previously mentioned it is hard to pin down the exact location and intensity of this feature with much lead time. A couple of model trends are a little worrisome about the development of this feature, one the upper level low southward movement is slower than the models have predicted which means two the cold air is still somewhat bottled up to the north. Less low level convergence will result in lower precipitation amounts if the deformation zone forms. For this forecast package will have a possible addition up to an inch of snow accumulation over the central interior including the Puget Sound region in the 4 am to 10 am window. Outside of the deformation zone showers will still be rotating around the low with the best chances for accumulating snow over the southern portion of the area. With another inch or so of accumulation possible the snow advisory for the Southwest Interior will continue until 1 pm. Upslope flow into the northern slopes of the Olympics will also continue through the morning hours will another 1 to 2 inches of snow possible along the Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca keeping the winter weather advisory going there until 1 pm as well. Monday afternoon, upper level low moving slowly south offshore pulling the moisture with it south of the area. With the low moving a little slower than the model forecasts have extended the chance for snow showers from about Skagit county southward into the early afternoon hours. By late afternoon the snow shower chances will be confined to the southeast portion of the area. Highs on Monday will be cool, only in the 30s with some places near the Canadian border remaining in the 20s. Drying trend Monday night as the low continues to move south with a sunny but cool day expected on Tuesday. With the clearing skies the cooler locations will fall into the teens Monday night. Highs on Tuesday will be in the 30s and lower 40s. Here is the current thinking on the wind. High wind warning still in effect for San Juan as well as Western Whatcom and Skagit counties beginning this evening and continuing into Monday night. Cold air a little behind schedule but the winds at Ferndale are up to 20 mph gusting to 40 mph at 4 pm. Winds will continue to increase over the Northwest interior overnight as the Bellingham to Williams Lake gradient becoming more negative as the much colder air over British Columbia cools even more overnight ( the temperature at Williams Lake at 4 pm was 11 below zero ). The forecast of northeast winds 25 to 45 mph with gusts as high as 55 mph through Monday night remains intact. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...Little change in the extended forecast this afternoon. Models continuing with the idea of another cool upper level low moving down close to the area toward the end of the week with another round of low snow levels. Timing of the feature still inconsistent among the models so will continue with the broad brush idea of chance pops through the period with below normal temperatures. Felton && .AVIATION...An upper low southwest of Vancouver Island will drop southward over the offshore waters tonight and into the Oregon waters on Monday. Southwesterly flow aloft will become southeasterly Monday morning. At low levels, strong northeast to north flow will gradually spread southward across the region through early Monday as low pressure passes by to the west and southwest and high pressure remains over the interior of British Columbia. The air mass will be moist and somewhat stable through Monday morning. Low MVFR and areas of IFR ceilings in snow showers are expected through Monday. VFR ceilings could develop across the far north portion of the area early Monday as dry, colder air filters into the region. Ceilings will improve to VFR over the Puget Sound area Monday afternoon. KSEA...MVFR with periods of IFR persisting tonight into Monday AM. Snow showers developing...with accumulations of 1-2 inches at the terminal most likely occurring between 05Z and 15Z. Some improvement in ceilings expected Monday afternoon as drier air filters into the area. Surface winds shifting to northerly 01Z-03Z and rising to 10 to 15 gusting 20 to 25 knots toward 12Z Monday. 27 && .MARINE...Flow will turn strongly offshore late today as a surface low moves south over the offshore waters and a surface ridge strengthens over the interior of British Columbia. Fraser outflow will continue through Monday night. Gale force wind over the northern inland waters this evening will spread to the Strait of Juan de Fuca and adjacent coastal waters late tonight. Small craft advisory strength winds will occur across the remainder of the inland waters. Winds will ease on Tuesday as the outflow weakens. 27 .HYDROLOGY...River flooding not expected in the next 7 days. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM PST Monday for Lower Chehalis Valley Area-Southwest Interior. High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM PST Tuesday for San Juan County-Western Skagit County-Western Whatcom County. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Everett and Vicinity-Western Skagit County-Western Whatcom County. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM PST Monday for Central Coast. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM PST Monday for Admiralty Inlet Area-Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca-Western Strait of Juan De Fuca. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Monday for Admiralty Inlet- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. Gale Warning until 4 PM PST Monday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Gale Warning until 4 AM PST Tuesday for Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Monday for Puget Sound and Hood Canal. && www.weather.gov/seattleAgreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted February 4, 2019 Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 Northly flow has begun 35.5Very light snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 4, 2019 Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 PDX radar is back, some decent organized echos visible now. Showing up as snow over the coast range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 4, 2019 Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 Seems like the precipitation is not as heavy now,,, mmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted February 4, 2019 Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 Outflow really going at Bellingham now. DP down to 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted February 4, 2019 Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 43 and cloudy. Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 4, 2019 Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 Sometimes I wonder if the NWS people even like weather...Not all of course I know some are huge nerds. For others I think it is just a job. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Sounder Posted February 4, 2019 Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 Cliff Mass should have known better. Pretty shocking mistake coming from him. The error on the MM5 models was too much easterly gradient.You'd think a stupid liberal like him would be more supportive of snowflakes!!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeInEverett Posted February 4, 2019 Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 Seems like the precipitation is not as heavy now,,, mmm.Yep definitely looks like our current band is starting to die down. Hopefully we still score some more tonight. (Previous name: MillCreekMike) Everett, WA (elev. 180’) 2023-2024 Snowfall: 1/11: Tr. 1/18: Tr. Go M’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 4, 2019 Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 No problem sticking to road here.. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 4, 2019 Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 I've never cared for Cliff Mass much and he's ugly. 2 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted February 4, 2019 Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 Nws basically saying nothing. Ouch what aren't I seeing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 4, 2019 Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 Cliff Mass and Tim should go driving around tomorrow in the snow. With bald tires. Going way too fast. Glad I got those new tires! **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 4, 2019 Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 29.5 and light snow. Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest hawkstwelve Posted February 4, 2019 Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 Just had the most beautiful drive from Redmond to Carnation. Heavy or moderate snow the whole time with big, white, fluffy flakes and everything caked white. The roads were fine until just off Hwy 202 on Tolt Hill when they got really snowy. Snoqualmie Valley is just starting to stick to roads and our hill is covered as well. Unless precip quickly shuts off (doubt it) the NWS is going to get egg on their face with this. The Euro will end up right and I shouldn't have doubted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted February 4, 2019 Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 So I guess its a non event.dunno, I didn’t read it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted February 4, 2019 Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 40 degrees and a little splattering in the rain. Temp has gone down 2 in the past 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted February 4, 2019 Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 Hrrr still sticking to its guns for the valley https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest hawkstwelve Posted February 4, 2019 Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 We have the 'owl index' for snowfall at our house and let me tell ya, he's starting to look a little cold. Edit: I took this picture about 15 mins ago and it's now up to his face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 4, 2019 Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 Going on faith that the significant accumulations for King County that the 12Z ECMWF showed from 10 p.m. - 4 a.m. will indeed happen because the radar is looking less impressive right now. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted February 4, 2019 Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 4, 2019 Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 It's still 44 in Portland, I assume it is still going to cool down eventually. "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 4, 2019 Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 Snow really coming down again! 29.3 and breezy north wind. Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 4, 2019 Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 We have the 'owl index' for snowfall at our house and let me tell ya, he's starting to look a little cold. We used a bald mannequin head for that in February 2014. My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 4, 2019 Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 It's still 44 in Portland, I assume it is still going to cool down eventually.You know what assuming does... 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 4, 2019 Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 snow and ice pellet mix throughout the southern portions of Victoria. Light dusting on grassy surfaces Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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