February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[Timmy]

North wind gusting to 20 at scappoose now, impressive

[Perturbed Member]

Mark doesn't like the front so close:

"That arctic front is uncomfortably close and I’m concerned that precip continuing this evening could turn much of the metro snowy after sunset.  The arctic front is the boundary of the cold/dry air where things are pretty much frozen.  It has progressed to Kelso west of the Cascades and Hood River in the eastern Gorge.  I’m worried about that brand new ECMWF showing cold/dry air surging up the Columbia River and into the metro area by 4pm.

"

[ShawniganLake]

Yay Victoria gets nothing

If there continues to be a Fraser outflow component it’s hard to believe we won’t catch up with other areas at some point. We will have to see

[ShawniganLake]

Also... the ECMWF did great with our deformation zone but it did underestimate total amounts a little. Something to consider for tonight.

Those snow maps are 10:1 ratios. I’m guessing many places did better than that.

[Deweydog]

NWS dropped the WWA. It’s over.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

 

Mark doesn't like the front so close:

"That arctic front is uncomfortably close and I’m concerned that precip continuing this evening could turn much of the metro snowy after sunset.  The arctic front is the boundary of the cold/dry air where things are pretty much frozen.  It has progressed to Kelso west of the Cascades and Hood River in the eastern Gorge.  I’m worried about that brand new ECMWF showing cold/dry air surging up the Columbia River and into the metro area by 4pm.

"

 

 

I missed that part at first. He continues to add:

 

"If precipitation continues this evening, those lower dewpoints + evaporative cooling coming in from the north could easily push sticking snow right down into the city.  In fact ECMWF has temps dropping down to freezing after sunset.  Oh please no evening commute fiasco…"

 

If this occurs West Metro might be able to get an inch or so.

[Timmy]

Eps sure wants to keep us cold and snowy

[BLI snowman]

Northerly push has definitely hit Clark County. Temps have dropped 3 degrees in the last hour, down to 34 with a nice flurry dveloping.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The trend for continued cold is outstanding to say the least. Really looking like a good event late week into weekend and from there I'd imagine we will probably have another cold few days or more and come out if this at some point with a over running event. I'll bet i do some catching up here on the rest of those big totals out there this weekend.

[Jesse]

NW wind has picked up in Salmon Creek. Snow flurries, no rain mixed in, just light snowflakes. Temp is down to 34.

[TT-SEA]

Temps at 40+ don't really translate to all that anomalous so it would seem to this point that trend has not verified here yet.

Its 26 in Seattle in the middle of the day in February.

 

It has verified in a big way. You are just too far south at this point.

[Deweydog]

Northerly push has definitely hit Clark County. Temps have dropped 3 degrees in the last hour, down to 34 with a nice flurry dveloping.

Yeah we just picked up a westerly breeze here in the last few minutes. Unusual direction for our topography.

[ShawniganLake]

Tim. For comparison you could try the Kuchera maps for the next 24-36hrs. See how they work out.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Not much of a strong signal for cold on the 12Z EPS in 12 days.   

 

This is getting ridiculous.   

 

 

Nice to see it showing good blocking up in Alaska.

[Jesse]

Northerly push has definitely hit Clark County. Temps have dropped 3 degrees in the last hour, down to 34 with a nice flurry dveloping.

Jinx!!

[Perturbed Member]

I missed that part at first. He continues to add:

 

"If precipitation continues this evening, those lower dewpoints + evaporative cooling coming in from the north could easily push sticking snow right down into the city.  In fact ECMWF has temps dropping down to freezing after sunset.  Oh please no evening commute fiasco…"

 

If this occurs you might be able to get an inch or so.

 

Good chance that I'm screwed since I'm in Hillsboro, a bit too far west on every model for anything over a dusting. I'll take my dusting though and hope parts of the metro area east of me get an inch or more. 

[Jesse]

Yeah we just picked up a westerly breeze here in the last few minutes. Unusual direction for our topography.

#eh

[TT-SEA]

Tim. For comparison you could try the Kuchera maps for the next 24-36hrs. See how they work out.

 

Great point... I will do that.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Its 26 in Seattle in the middle of the day in February.

 

It has verified in a big way. You are just too far south at this point.

Doesn’t seem like we are going to get in on this one this year. So the signal should have cut off n of us.

[Jesse]

Doesn’t seem like we are going to get in on this one this year. So the signal should have cut off n of us.

It’s like day two of what looks to be a fairly long lasting pattern change.

 

#relax

[TT-SEA]

Tim. For comparison you could try the Kuchera maps for the next 24-36hrs. See how they work out.

 

 

Here is the Kuchera map... 

 

[Guest hawkstwelve]

1210pm #SitRep: Main snow band that was over the Seattle metro area this AM has weakened & moved west toward the Kitsap Peninsula. However, we are monitoring another band that has developed over Stevens & Snoqualmie Pass moving west toward the Puget Sound Lowlands. #wawx #wasnow pic.twitter.com/y7g9BBHJPa

— NWS Seattle (@NWSSeattle) February 4, 2019

 

[BLI snowman]

Jinx!!

 

Give me a Coke right now! 

[FroYoBro]

NW wind has picked up in Salmon Creek. Snow flurries, no rain mixed in, just light snowflakes. Temp is down to 34.

 

 

Keep it coming this way! All rain here and 38 degrees. 

[TT-SEA]

 

1210pm #SitRep: Main snow band that was over the Seattle metro area this AM has weakened & moved west toward the Kitsap Peninsula. However, we are monitoring another band that has developed over Stevens & Snoqualmie Pass moving west toward the Puget Sound Lowlands. #wawx #wasnow pic.twitter.com/y7g9BBHJPa

— NWS Seattle (@NWSSeattle) February 4, 2019

 

 

 

That band they mention is passing just to my south so I can't verify its strength.    There is nothing falling here.  

[Guest Sounder]

Starting to switch to snow here in SW Portland.

[BLI snowman]

Good chance that I'm screwed since I'm in Hillsboro, a bit too far west on every model for anything over a dusting. I'll take my dusting though and hope parts of the metro area east of me get an inch or more. 

 

Radar looks decent enough to make me cautiously optimistic. Temps won't be much of an issue. This low level arctic air is a beast.

[jakeinthevalley]

How is it looking on the UW campus? Anybody have any cameras etc. Tried to text my daughter and haven't heard from her yet.

[Phil]

Not much of a strong signal for cold on the 12Z EPS in 12 days.

 

This is getting ridiculous.

 

Hindsight is 20-20, but given the dead Sun + the clear downwelling NAM/SSW signal conjunct the ERW train present across the Indo-Pacific, I’m not sure how I (or anyone else) could have bailed on this winter.

 

Sure, the timing was fluky as hell, and the SSW/-NAM took an eternity to downwell to the tropopause fighting the niño/wave-3 disconnect, but that downwelling signal was very obvious (and extremely potent across time), so there was no season to think it would be trumped by a niño signal so weak that it barely registers in the low pass VP filters.

 

I should have seen this one coming. Bad miss. I guess I let Justin’s “niño climo” stuff spook me.

[Guest Sounder]

How is it looking on the UW campus? Anybody have any cameras etc. Tried to text my daughter and haven't heard from her yet.

Classes are canceled which is pretty rare for UW. Not sure in exact amounts though.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Here is the Kuchera map... 

 

 

The Kuchera ratio is suppose to be more accurate than the standard 10:1 snowfall ratio.

[TT-SEA]

Hindsight is 20-20, but given the dead Sun + the clear downwelling NAM/SSW signal conjunct the ERW train present across the Indo-Pacific, I’m not sure how I (or anyone else) could have bailed on this winter.

 

Sure, the timing was fluky as hell, and the SSW/-NAM took an eternity to downwell to the tropopause fighting the niño/wave-3 disconnect, but that downwelling signal was very obvious (and extremely potent across time), so there was no season to think it would be trumped by a niño signal so weak that it barely registers in the low pass VP filters.

 

I should have seen this one coming from a-far. I guess I let Justin’s “niño climo” stuff spook me.

Justin scolded me harshly for even suggesting this would happen based on Nino climo. The only come back I had was low solar.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Hindsight is 20-20, but given the dead Sun + the clear downwelling NAM/SSW signal conjunct the ERW train present across the Indo-Pacific, I’m not sure how I (or anyone else) could have bailed on this winter.

Sure, the timing was fluky as hell, and the SSW/-NAM took an eternity to downwell to the tropopause fighting the niño/wave-3 disconnect, but that downwelling signal was very obvious (and extremely potent across time), so there was no season to think it would be trumped by a niño signal so weak that it barely registers in the low pass VP filters.

I should have seen this one coming from a-far. I guess I let Justin’s “niño climo” stuff spook me.

Do you think this will go out beyond ten days from now? Or Do you think we will end with a undercutting system around ten days from now?

[jcmcgaffey]

 

February 4, 2019

 

Just noticed that on the radar too.  It looks like possibly more convergence coming from the southeast.  Has been snowing here all day but started slowing down and not as windy but now starting to pick up again.  Edit: Now looking at it again it looks like it is curving directly west and may stay south of King County.

[Cloud]

 

1210pm #SitRep: Main snow band that was over the Seattle metro area this AM has weakened & moved west toward the Kitsap Peninsula. However, we are monitoring another band that has developed over Stevens & Snoqualmie Pass moving west toward the Puget Sound Lowlands. #wawx #wasnow pic.twitter.com/y7g9BBHJPa

— NWS Seattle (@NWSSeattle) February 4, 2019

 

 

Saw this one developed last hour as the current band moved west but didn't think this one would reach over. Probably won't amount to much as it appear very light.

[Deweydog]

#eh

Down to 37 from 37 an hour ago...

[Timmy]

Does anyone know if there is gonna be offshore flow this week? There is some healthy snow going on in the Columbia basin currently

[Deweydog]

The Kuchera ratio is suppose to be more accurate than the standard 10:1 snowfall ratio.

VERY sharp cut off at SE 192nd Avenue.

[BLI snowman]

Justin scolded me harshly for even suggesting this would happen based on Nino climo. The only come back I had was low solar.

 

Nino is dead. Long live Nada.

[Deweydog]

Does anyone know if there is gonna be offshore flow this week? There is some healthy snow going on in the Columbia basin currently

Pretty much a drift at best.